DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 17
The NFL Week 17 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With fifteen weeks’ worth of data, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for a safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
Week 16 Results
Below are my cash game results in Week 16 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads:
Results:
- Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 836/4597
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 883/4597
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 191/1149
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 410/2298
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1735/9195
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 831/4597
- Single Entry $5 Double Up – 391/2298
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 494/2873
The combination of Daniel Jones or Gardner Minshew, Derrick Henry, TJ Hockenson, and Richie James got you above the cash line in Week 16, and it really didn’t matter who else you plugged into your lineups. As you can see, I easily survived the Christian McCaffrey and Rhamondre Stevenson snowflakes as well as the Nelson Agholor disappear-into-thin-air game. Once I knew I could not get Justin Jefferson in the lineup I was constructing (I had no desire to play two cheap Giants), I thought it was imperative to get some piece of the Minnesota offense, which led me to choose between Hockenson and Dalvin Cook. I almost got off Stevenson to get Cook and then go down at the tight end spot to Darwin Schultz or Dallas Goedert. I can just chalk that decision up to just running hot in Week 16 because it was really a coin flip for me whether to go Stevenson/Hockenson or Cook/Goedert.
Week 17 Cash Plays
Quarterback
Justin Fields ($7,900) might have looked abysmal against Buffalo last week, but we can chalk that up to terrible weather conditions and a tough matchup against the Bills. He did not run nearly as much as he has in prior games, but that should change against the Lions this week. Not only do the Lions allow the most DraftKings points to quarterbacks on the season (25.0, two more than any other team), they also allow the most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns to the position. In you case you forgot, Fields rushed for 147 yards and two scores while also throwing for another two touchdowns the last time these teams met in Week 10.
Jared Goff ($5,600) looks way too cheap for a home matchup against the Bears this week, and we know how effective Goff has been in home games this year. In eight games in Detroit this season, Goff averages 277 yards per game and has thrown for 20 touchdowns and just three picks. In their last four games, Chicago has allowed opposing teams to throw for 243 yards per game and score 30 points per contest. When these teams played last, Goff had his highest yards per attempt on the season (9.1 yards) and this has become a must-win for the Lions to stay in the playoff hunt.
Gardner Minshew ($5,500) exceeded everyone’s wildest imaginations with 28.7 DK points last week at just $4,800. He was a dangerous fade in cash games, and if Jalen Hurts is not active again, he will be someone we have to consider. The Saints are a middle-of-the-pack team against opposing quarterbacks, but Philadelphia threw the ball 58% of the time with Minshew under center in Week 16 so they aren’t afraid to let him try and win games with his arm. I prefer Goff and his game environment at this price range, but Minshew is certainly an option considering the players we want to pay up for at other positions.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley ($8,000) has back-to-back elite games now after his meltdown against Philadelphia. He has averaged 25 fantasy points against Minnesota and Washington and now has the lowly Colts who are just playing out the string with Nick Foles and a patchwork defense that should provide no real obstacles to Barkley and his oversized work role. The Colts now allow the sixth-most DK points to the running back position (27 per game). The Colts have allowed over 100 rushing yards in four of their last five games while Barkley has averaged more than five yards per carry in the last two games. At just $100 more than last week, he is worth the spend-up in Week 17.
James Conner ($7,200) has a truly elite workload this year, playing more than 90% of the snaps every single week. Week 11 was the last time he was under 91% of snaps played and he has at least 20 opportunities (rush attempts plus targets) over the last four games. Teams know they can run all over the Atlanta Falcons – they have attempted the fifth-most rush attempts and have piled up the eighth-most rushing yards against the Falcons this year. Despite scoring more than 23 DK points in three of his last four games, Conner’s salary has only increased by $600 in that time and this is a player who should be closer to $8,000 considering his oversized role in the offense.
Miles Sanders ($5,900) disappointed a lot of people in tournaments last week when they assumed that the Eagles would turn to a more rush-heavy approach with Jalen Hurts out of the lineup. He did get 21 attempts but was shut down for just 65 yards and a fumble lost. But the usage has been strong enough in recent weeks that we can consider Sanders a fringe cash-game play this week considering they should roll all over the Saints in a home matchup where the Eagles are favored by 6.5 points.
Tyler Allgeier ($5,300) is seeing an increased role every week with Caleb Huntley’s injury and the diminishing presence of Cordarelle Patterson. Allgeier has 17 and 18 carries in the last two games for a total of 213 rushing yards. But one of the most promising parts of his play the last two weeks was when he saw five targets in Week 16. He caught four passes for 43 yards and it was the first time he had more than three targets or one catch in a game this season. The Cardinals are very susceptible to pass-catching backs this season (fifth-most yards and third-most touchdowns allowed), so if that remains a part of Allgeier’s game this week, it could be a smash spot at just $5,300.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800) often goes wherever Jared Goff takes him, so in this incredible spot for Goff, we should expect St. Brown to be the top receiver for this Lions’ squad once again. St. Brown’s target share has been at least 25% in every game since Week 8, and it was Week 7 against Dallas the last time he saw less than eight targets. St. Brown hasn’t visited the end zone in the last three games, but that should change against a Bears’ squad that has given up at least 25 points in eight straight games. At just $7,800, this salary seems to low for a player who has a 15-point floor and a realistic 35-point ceiling.
Keenan Allen ($7,000) is going to be an option in DraftKIngs cash games until the end of time, apparently. Or at least until he stops getting 14 targets and nine catches per game. That’s his average over the last four weeks, which has allowed him to pile up over 90 yards per game and more than 20 DK points in three of his last four. But Allen’s ceiling is even higher since he has only reached the end zone one time in his last four games despite the Chargers throwing at the second-highest rate in the league this year (66%). If Austin Ekeler should end up missing this game with an injury (the Chargers clinched a playoff spot), we might see a season-high number of targets come Allen’s way against the Rams.
Garret Wilson ($5,500) was surely relieved to hear his team would be going back to Mike White at quarterback after the two-game prison sentence with Zach Wilson in Weeks 15 and 16. In White’s three starts in Weeks 12-14, Wilson averaged 10 targets, six receptions, 112 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns per game. At just $5,500, we are getting the Zach Wilson discount here for a player whose floor and ceiling has immediately been lifted by the quarterback change. After two straight weeks under 15 DK points, his salary dropped $500 and we get to reap the benefits of that this week.
Greg Dortch ($3,000) is a gross play, especially considering Trace McSorley is his quarterback. But he is just the minimum $3,000 and he caught 10 of 11 targets for 98 yards on Christmas Day. McSorley has no desire to throw the ball deep, so his outlets of James Conner and Dortch look appealing against a Falcons defense that has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards and sixth-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. As of Friday morning, this slate was desperate for running back and wide receiver value, so Dortch might just play that role.
Tight End
George Kittle ($5,900) is probably not going to be the most popular cash game tight end this week, but that’s just because his recent production has warranted his salary jump back up near the Mark Andrews level, and it is likely to continue to climb after this week. Since Deebo Samuel’s injury, Kittle has been a target machine, with 13 targets and 10 catches in the last two weeks. Those have turned into 213 total yards and four touchdowns. We won’t expect two touchdowns every week, but no other tight end has more fantasy points than Kittle the last three weeks, and he is quickly becoming a favorite target for Brock Purdy.
Evan Engram ($4,400) is within just three points of Kittle for the most tight end fantasy points in the last three weeks. He has been simply phenomenal with 26 catches, 337 yards, and two scores in that span and he has 40 total targets in his last four contests. Against the Houston Texans in a game Trevor Lawrence has already come out and said they must win, Engram’s role now appears to be the safest among all Jaguars’ pass-catchers and he has an easy path to continuing his four-week streak of at least 14 DK points per game.
Tyler Conklin ($2,900) is the tight end punt play of the slate considering the matchup and the fact that the Jets will have Mike White back under center, which lifts the entire passing offense. Seattle allows the second-most DK points per game to opposing tight ends including the third-most yards and fifth-most touchdowns. Seattle was just wrecked by Kelce for six catches and 113 yards, and while Conklin is certainly not Kelce, he has eight games this year with at least five targets, which should be more than enough to pay off a $2,900 salary tag.
Defense/Special Teams
New York Giants DST ($3,900) really doesn’t need much explanation. They are under $4,000, they face turnover-machine Nick Foles, they are at home, and they are fighting for their playoff lives. If you have $4,000 to spend on DST, It doesn’t get much better than this matchup. The Chargers’ defense scored 20 points against the Colts in the Monday night matchup.
San Francisco 49ers DST ($2,900) is like a late Christmas gift you just found stuck under a couch or something and we get to open on New Years’ Day. Someone on DraftKings really dropped the ball on this one because even before Jarrett Stidham was declared the starter for the Las Vegas Raiders, the salary for San Francisco dropped $1,000 after six straight weeks of scoring at least seven points. Now with Stidham scheduled to take all the snaps, this potent 49ers defense should be able to tee off on the Raiders. They are a cash game lock.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. I would love to find a way to get up to Evan Engram in this build, but the running back situation isn’t currently allowing that to happen. In order to do so, I might need to sacrifice at Flex or pivot from Conner to Allgeier, although that seems like a situation I would like to avoid.
