DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 4
The NFL Week 4 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With only two weeks worth of data, it’s not hard to overreact to what we saw on the field. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity. Let’s go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
Week 3 Results
This was my cash game lineup for Week 3 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads for Week 3:
Results:
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1557/4597
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 2835/8620
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 833/2298
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 4985/17241
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 3523/11494
- NFL $5 Double Up – 22/100
This last week in DFS was all about whether you had Mack Hollins in cash games. He was between 20% and 40% rostered depending on what contests you entered, and he was the key to unlocking a win, assuming you went with other chalky players who busted. This was a week where David Montgomery, Leonard Fournette, and Stefon Diggs all had relatively modest games, but they were rostered everywhere so that was not the differentiator. Even the top two quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, scored the same number of fantasy points, so it really all came down to Hollins. My last decision in this lineup was Josh Allen plus Brandin Cooks or Jalen Hurts plus Tee Higgins. Clearly, I made the wrong choice but was lucky to win 100% of contests because Hollins masked the mistake.
Quarterback
Josh Allen ($8,400) and his rival on the other sideline (Lamar Jackson) are likely to be the two most popular quarterbacks across all of DFS on Sunday. This game has the highest implied total on the slate (51 points) and features two quarterbacks who can beat you with their arms and their legs. Allen threw an uncanny 63 times in a regulation game against Miami last week, and as long as Buffalo keeps throwing at a 66% rate (sixth in the league), Allen will continue to pay off his lofty quarterback salary. The Ravens have allowed each of the three quarterbacks they have faced to reach 300 yards so the bonus is clearly within reach for Allen.
Lamar Jackson ($8,300) looks like the unrivaled MVP through three games of the season, averaging 250 yards passing, 81 yards rushing, and four total touchdowns per game. The Bills only allowing 8.7 DraftKings points per game to quarterbacks through three games might give some people pause. But they haven’t faced a dual threat like Lamar Jackson yet. The Bills already lost Christian Benford and Micah Hyde due to injury and now list two other cornerbacks as Questionable due to injuries this week. It’s gotten so bad the Bills had to sign two street-free agent cornerbacks just so they can ensure they have enough healthy players this week. This is a depleted defense Lamar will face and he should be able to dominate them.
Marcus Mariota ($5,600) appears to be the best value quarterback at the moment if you choose to pay down at the position. I’m likely looking to spend up for one of the top three (Jalen Hurts at $8.200 being the other) this week, but Mariota does have some appeal. The Browns allow 21.6 DK points per game to opposing quarterbacks, including two rushing touchdowns already.
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Running Back
Saquon Barkley ($8,000) has so far shown this season that all he needed was health the last two years to perform like one of the elite backs in the game. Even with only 18 opportunities against Dallas on Monday, Barkley scored 22.6 fantasy points. Now he gets a Chicago Bears’ defense that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards on the year with the added bonus that literally every receiver the Giants have is hurt. Even with a bump up to $8,000, Barkley is likely $500 too cheap for the usage he will see in this matchup.
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The rest of this article is for FantasyData Subscribers only. Luckily for you, now is one of the best times of the year to subscribe. We are offering amazing deals on our Annual subscriptions. That means you get all our awesome DFS content, projections, rankings, and tools along with downloadable data for one full year. You will be set up for the rest of this NFL season and almost all of next year!
Jamaal Williams ($6,100) is in line to draw a start this week after D’Andre Swift’s multiple injuries now have him officially ruled out. Williams is already second in the NFL in red zone rush attempts and also has the second-most fantasy points inside the red zone this season. With Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown sitting, there is a chance Williams can grab at least some of the passing-down or two-minute work as well. It all shapes up to what could be a massive workload week for the Hard Knocks favorite. Craig Reynolds will be involved, but the Lions clearly have a lot of faith in Williams.
Khalil Herbert ($5,700) is likely even more of a priority than Williams if David Montgomery’s ankle and knee injuries keep him out of the game against the New York Giants this week. Priced the same as players like Melvin Gordon, Herbery is likely to see a massive bell cow workload if Montgomery sits. In that role last week against the Texans, Herbert had the best game of his career with 169 total yards and two touchdowns. The Giants allow the third-most rushing yards to running backs and the eighth-most DraftKings points to the position through three weeks.
Dameon Pierce ($5,600) has now played back-to-back games with around 60% of the snaps and his rushing attempts have jumped from 1 in Week 1 all the way to 20 in Week 3. Dominating just about all of the on-the-ground work in this Texans’ offense, he is just too cheap for the matchup he has this week. The Chargers have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to running backs this year and just lost defensive stopper Joey Bosa for the season. This matchup doesn’t scare me one bit after we saw what James Robinson and Travis Etienne did to this defense on the road last week.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs ($8,400) was a major disappointment as the uber-chalk last week, there is just no way around it. But still tied to Josh Allen and facing a Ravens’ defense that has injuries up and down their secondary, we need to have very short DFS memories. So far the Ravens have allowed DraftKing scores of 45 to Tyreek Hill, 43 to Jaylen Waddle, and 23.6 to DeVante Parker. Look for Diggs to be the next wide receiver to have a massive game against this leaky defense. The floor for Diggs is 10 targets in this game.
A.J. Brown ($7,400) may have been overshadowed by Devonta Smith’s peak game against the Commanders last week, but that does not mean his salary should have stayed this low. Brown did get 10 targets and a touchdown of his own, and he is the most utilized piece of this offense. Brown is top 10 in overall targets among wide receivers and he is top-five in receiving yards and air yards. Jacksonville may not be a cupcake matchup like in years’ past, but they have allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to wide receivers this year.
Courtland Sutton ($6,400) is still getting his fantasy production even if Russell Wilson is struggling in his first audition with the Denver Broncos. Sutton is top-three in the NFL in both air yards and receiving yards, and ranks top-12 in receptions. Even in an offensive debacle like the 11-10 win over the 49ers in Week 3, Sutton still finished with 17.7 fantasy points on the back of 10 targets, eight catches, and 97 yards. The Broncos are underdogs in this game so expect the passing game to be a large part of the game plan.
Richie James ($4,000) represents some of the very rare wide receiver value this week. And it’s not as if James is a great play or in an elite offense. He is just the last man standing for a Giants offense that has been decimated at the wide receiver position. I hate trusting any aspect of Daniel Jones in cash games, but James has at least five targets and four catches in every game this year. If he can find the end zone as he has twice already, he will easily hit 4x value.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts ($5,000) got oh so close to the breakout game we have all been hoping for when he tallied eight targets and 87 receiving yards against the Seahawks. We will have to eventually admit that Drake London is trending toward alpha receiver status in this league so it will limit Pitts’ immense upside, but he is priced right for this matchup against the Cleveland Browns. Even with the relatively slow start, Pitts ranks second among tight ends in air yards and percent of team’s air yards. He is also is third in overall target share at the position.
T.J. Hockenson ($4,100) should see a massive increase in targets this week with D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown absent and a matchup against a soft Seattle secondary. Swift is fourth among all running backs in routes run, and St. Brown is eighth in the league in overall targets, so there is going to be a massive amount usage vacated in this game. Those looks have to go somewhere and Hockenson is the smart bet. At just $4,100 this week, there is a strong chance Hockenson becomes mega-chalk at the position in Week 4.
David Njoku ($3,700) broke out in a major way in the Thursday night win over Pittsburgh in Week 3. His 10 targets and nine catches were well above his totals from Weeks 1 and 2 combined. He scored his first touchdown with Jacoby Brissett and simply did not see his salary rise enough (he was $3,400 last week). The Atlanta Falcons allow the second-most DraftKings points on the year (20.4 per game).
Defense/Special Teams
New York Giants DST ($3,100) faces a quarterback who is showing levels of ineptitude we have not seen since the days of Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell. Justin Fields has twice as many interceptions as passing touchdowns this year, and the Bears have started taking the ball out of his hands, running it as much as possible. While that may mean big things for Khalil Herbert, the opportunity to get a turnover or two at this low salary is worth a look in cash games.
Tennessee DST ($2,500) will be looking to tee it up against an extremely immobile quarterback in Matt Ryan this week. Ryan has had an extremely up and down start to the season, and has six combined turnovers in just three games. Indianapolis also ranks 27th in the league with a 9.3% sack rate allowed. For just $2,500, this is a great cash game gamble to take hoping the sacks and turnovers continue to pile up.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. We rarely see D.J. Moore this low, but the production also has not been there this year with Baker Mayfield. Swapping Khalil Herbert in for Dameon Pierce would also be an easy move to make here. Another change I might make is going down slightly from Sutton so I can afford Hockenson at tight end.
