DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 6
The NFL Week 6 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With only five weeks worth of data, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
Week 5 Results
This was my cash game lineup for Week 5 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads:
Results:
- Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 950/6896
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 791/4597
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1198/8620
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1518/17122
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1306/11424
- Single Entry $5 Double Up – 439/2298
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 869/8087
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 461/2873
This was one of the highest-scoring cash game weeks that I can remember, and I was able to get the right guys in to give me a three-week winning streak. Almost all the chalk hit, so unless you went really off the wall with your picks, you likely had one of your highest scores of the season over on DraftKings. The chalk was so good, in fact, that the millionaire winner on Sunday basically ran a cash lineup with Gabriel Davis as one of his wide receivers. Whether you played Tom Brady (like I did) or Josh Allen, there were builds available to you that were easy paths to almost 200 points. Even though I took a stone-cold zero at tight end, I was so convicted on Nick Chubb that I didn’t mind paying down. I was mildly surprised to see him at just 10% ownership in contests. The best cash lineups went with Allen at quarterback and then a balanced build everywhere else.
Week 6 Cash Plays
Quarterback
Josh Allen ($8,200) was not only the right answer at quarterback in Week 5, but he has been the right answer in cash games just about every week of the season. He has at least 30 DK points in four of five weeks, and “just” 24.52 in the week he didn’t reach 30. Allen is only $100 more than Lamar Jackson and $200 more than Patrick Mahomes in a game environment that has a total 3-4 points higher than any other game on the board, and the Bills possess the highest team total on the slate. I’ll be finding a way to get to Allen this week.
Kyler Murray ($7,300) is next in line for “quarterback vs. Seattle Seahawks defense” which has paid tremendous dividends this year. The Seattle defense has allowed 27, 27, 45, and 39 points to their opponents to their last four opponents this year, and three of those are against the Falcons, Lions, and Saints. Murray is averaging 21 DK points per game this season and has reached at least 26 rushing yards in four of five games. If your build makes more sense with a mid-range quarterback, Murray is a fine choice.
Geno Smith ($5,700) now has three straight games with at least two touchdown passes and 23 DK points but still can’t even get close to cracking $6,000 in salary. He has unlocked the next level for Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, and now will likely be called upon to throw slightly more with Rashaad Penny done for the year. The Cardinals are bottom-12 in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley ($7,700) continues to be way too cheap this year considering his elite usage and fantasy production. It’s like the DK algorithm has a ceiling of $8,00 on Barkley when he needs to be approaching the mid $8,000’s. His salary goes down $200 after putting up 20 fantasy points in London, and his opponent – the Baltimore Ravens – doesn’t scare me one bit this week. Baltimore is middle of the pack in rushing production allowed to running backs, but has allowed the second-most receptions and the fifth-most receiving yards to the position. You may have heard, but Barkley catches passes. And with the state of the Giants’ wide receiver room at the moment, he catches a lot of them. This is just simply too cheap for the role right now.
Alvin Kamara ($6,700) came back from a two-game absence and immediately got in the PPR good graces of anyone who took a chance on him in contests last week. He scored 27.4 points on the back of 103 rushing yards and six catches for 91 receiving yards. Like Barkley, Kamara inexplicably only got a $100 salary bump this week, and should resume more of a bell-cow role if Taysom Hill is phased back into his regular routine. The Bengals are a tough opponent for running backs, but this is a volume versus salary play, and the projections say Kamara is well worth it.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000) is likely to be uber-chalky this week with Damian Harris out and the Patriots facing the Cleveland Browns. That would be the same Browns team that has allowed 440 rushing yards the last two weeks and allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns on the year. If Stevenson even assumes half of the Harris rushing work and keeps the passing-down work for himself, he is going to smash his $6,000 salary. He already has at least 18 touches and 20 DK points in two of the last three games with Harris in the lineup.
Kenneth Walker III ($5,400) already showed us what he is capable of producing after we saw Rashaad Penny leave the game early in Week 5. Walker rushed for 88 yards on just eight carries and crossed the goal line as well. Walker will presumably consume most of Penny’s 55% snap share which should lead to an easy path to providing at least 3x his DK salary this week. The Cardinals have allowed over 100 rushing yards in three of five games this year, including 139 last week to Philadelphia.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs ($8,400) is $1,300 less than Cooper Kupp and $500 less than Justin Jefferson this week despite being in the best game environment of the week and with the best quarterback in the game. Diggs just torched the Steelers last week for 27 DK points on 11 targets and he now gets the Kansas City defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. We don’t often go into cash games looking for a team stack (Allen and Diggs), but this duo may be too valuable to pass up considering their combination of floor and ceiling. Diggs is getting a strong 26% target share this year, and he has something to prove after last year’s AFC playoff loss in overtime.
Chris Godwin ($6,100) got a small salary bump this week to finally cross the $6,000 threshold for 2022. He has not had a breakout game that defined so much of his past few seasons, but it’s just a matter of time considering the 16 targets over the past two weeks plus the 104 times Tom Brady has passed the ball the last two weeks. Godwin conceded some snaps to Scotty Miller (46% snap share) on Sunday, but Godwin still got more than 12 fantasy points and should only get stronger as the season rolls along. Maybe you saw or remember what the Bills just did to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Well, now it’s Tampa Bay’s turn to light them up.
Tyler Lockett ($5,600) is such an enigma right now on DK. Like, I think the button on their salary machine is stuck for him or something. He has scored between 14 and 30 DK points in four straight contests and yet his salary is exactly the same as it was in Week 2. I can’t explain why his salary won’t move, but I can explain what will happen if you don’t roster him in Week 6. He is going to score 20+ DK points against a mediocre Arizona defense with a 50.5 implied game total. And if you’re not one of the 65% that roster him in cash games, you will be fighting an uphill battle all day to overcome that score.
Rondale Moore ($4,200) saw a huge spike in valuable usage time between his first and second games back from injury this year. But he is only $100 more expensive than in Week 5 despite eight targets and a career-high 9.7 yards per reception. We are likely to get one more week with Moore able to pair up with Marquise Brown as the top two receivers on the team. When De’Andre Hopkins comes back after Week 6, Moore may go back to the inside slot or line-of-scrimmage role. But for now, he is an integral piece of an offense that is facing a porous Seattle defense including a beatable secondary.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee ($4,600) has scored between 10 and 17 DK points in every game this season, yet his salary has only jumped from $4,200 to $4,600 in five weeks. Higbee has become a central part of the passing game, perhaps taking over the role many thought Allen Robinson would have when he signed a multi-year deal. Higbee has 24 targets in the past two games which have resulted in 17 receptions and 119 yards. He is due for some serious positive touchdown regression with zero scores on the year despite five red zone targets (seventh among all tight ends).
Hayden Hurst ($3,300) comes into Week 6 with a Questionable tag due to a groin injury, so his availability is something to watch over the weekend. But has touchdowns in back-to-back games and becomes instantly appealing if Tee Higgins were to miss this game as he battles with his own ankle injury. Despite the Bengals playing at a glacial pace, Hurst ranks fourth among all tight ends in snaps played, and much like Higbee, he is very involved in the red zone this season (six targets already).
Cade Otton ($2,900) received at 16% salary bump after a strong Week 5, but still sits at just $2,900 which makes him a fantastic target for cash games this week. Without a tremendous basement-level value play at the other skill positions, I will be looking to pay down at tight end (even after O.J. Howard burned me!) and hope to get a line similar to what Otton produced in Week 5. He became one of Tom Brady’s go-to guys with seven targets, six catches, and 43 yards against Atlanta, going 4x his salary last week. We really only need about nine points for him to pay off this week. Cameron Brate looks like he might be ready to come back from his concussion, so tread carefully here if it looks like Otton might fall back into the second chair.
Defense/Special Teams
New Orleans DST ($2,800) has never scored below four points on DK this season. Despite giving up 32 and 28 points the past two weeks, they have managed to record three sacks in three straight games. The Saints should once again have the advantage in the trenches this week against the Cincinnati Bengals. Pro Football Focus rates the Bengals’ offensive line 26th in the NFL currently, and they have been pegged between 30th and 32nd at various points throughout the season.
Carolina DST ($2,400) is as cheap as you can get at defense on this slate, and it’s certainly not the absolute best environment, but it is a plus matchup. The Panthers play the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, and the Rams allow the third-highest sack percentage in the league (9.77%). That’s important because the Rams also call the eighth-most passing plays per game this year. Matthew Stafford has also thrown seven interceptions in five games, so it’s about all you can ask for when you’re playing a $2,400 defense in cash.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. I like this build as of Friday morning, but there is quite a bit of news (Chris Godwin, and Damien Harris update) to pay attention to over the weekend.
