DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 7

DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 7

The NFL Week 7 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With six weeks worth of data, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.

We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games. 

Week 6 Results

This was my cash game lineup for Week 5 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads:

Results:

• Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 939/6896
• Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1162/8620
• Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 540/4597
• Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 241/2298
• Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 2128/17241
• Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1378/11494
• Single Entry $5 Double Up – 256/2298
• Single Entry $2 Double Up – 968/8620
• Single Entry $2 Double Up – 325/2873

We have officially hit a hot streak with four straight weeks of 100% cashing in double-ups, but this past week really was on a razor’s edge depending on which value running backs, tight end, and defense you chose. If you went with Jacksonville (-1 point) over Carolina (9 points), you likely didn’t cash. If you went with Kenneth Walker over Darrell Henderson, you were much more likely to cash. And there were paths to victory with both Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst, but if you went with Tyler Higbee or Zach Gentry, you likely didn’t cash. I was always in on Carolina against a terrible and injured Rams’ offensive line, so I dodged the Jaguars’ bullet. My last real decision after I knew I wanted Stefon Diggs over Mark Andrews was Henderson or Walker. In the end, I remembered that Henderson actually sucks and the Rams hate running the ball, so Walker with the backfield to himself was an easy choice. It ended up being the right call. 

Week 7 Cash Plays

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson ($8,000) takes the place of Josh Allen this week as the spend-up option at quarterback with the highest fantasy upside. We have an immovable object and irresistible force situation happening with Jackson and the Cleveland Browns this week. Cleveland has only allowed 31 total rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, the best rate in the league. Lamar, as you might imagine, is lapping the field in rushing yards this season with 451. Jalen Hurts is next with 293. In addition, Cleveland allows 11.9 yards per completion to opposing quarterbacks, which ranks 31st in the NFL this season. With Rashod Bateman due back this week, he should have his full complement of receivers and will have the highest upside of any quarterback on the slate. 

Joe Burrow ($6,900) has not so quietly morphed back into one the league’s elite quarterbacks over the past four weeks. After the Week 1 debacle, Burrow has righted the ship with 12 touchdowns to just one interception over the last four games and now gets the cushy Atlanta Falcons defense at a nice salary point. The Falcons have allowed the most passing yards in the league this year, plus 10 passing touchdowns to opponents. They also allow over 10 yards per completion to wide receivers, so players like Ja’Marr Chase (more on him below) and Tee Higgins could have a field day here. But Burrow should be able to excel here and is a helpful $1,100 less than Lamar Jackson. 

Davis Mills ($5,000) and Geno Smith ($5,600) are the cheap quarterback options this week, but only Mills plays the team that allows the most DraftKings points to quarterbacks this year – the Las Vegas Raiders. Granted, Davis Mills is nowhere near the caliber of Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray or Patrick Mahomes, but as the 24th-most expensive quarterback on the slate (with only 11 games), he doesn’t have to do much to get you 15 points and 3x value. Mills is priced below guys like Chase Daniel, Carson Wentz, and Cooper Rush who will not even play this week. The Texans have looked more run-heavy lately with Dameon Pierce, but Mills still has a couple games with 15+ DK points on the year. 

Running Back

Saquon Barkley ($7,900) will likely be under $8,000 for just this last time in 2022, as he continues to be underpriced both for the usage and for the production so far this season. Barkley has scored less than 19 DK points once this season and is just coming off a game with 25 opportunities against the Baltimore Ravens. Now he gets the Jacksonville Jaguars who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including the second-most receptions to the position. With the wide receiver room still decimated in New York, expect Barkley to heavily involved in the passing game again. 

Josh Jacobs ($6,500) looks like he will be quite chalky on this slate as we approach the end of the week. With no real sub-$5,000 running back value like last week, the balanced build looks to be more the flavor of the week, and Jacobs fits right into that mold. The last we saw Jacobs, he was coming off back-to-back weeks of 33+ DK points against the Chiefs and Broncos. On Sunday he faces the Houston Texans who allow the most fantasy points to running backs, including the fourth-most touchdowns to the position. Jacobs is third in the NFL in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line and he is set up to smash this week. 

Breece Hall ($6,200) has at least 20 rush attempts + targets the last two weeks and has turned those into 23.1 points against the Packers and 30.7 points against the Dolphins. Despite the presence of Michael Carter and Ty Johnson, Hall has led the team in snap rate four straight weeks and has crept up near 70% each of the past three games. The Broncos are just middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to the position, but with the Jets now essentially a pick ’em against the Bronocs, we could see a lot of Breece Hall. The Jets have rushed the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the league over the last three weeks. 

Kenneth Walker ($5,800) certainly smashed his value last week with 97 rushing yards, 13 receiving yards, and a touchdown. But it was the snaps that were the most encouraging after the Rashaad Penny injury. Walker was in on 70% of Seattle’s plays, and even though DeeJay Dallas is the receiving back, Walker ran 14 routes to just 10 for Dallas on Sunday. It’s clear the Seahawks are going to feature Walker this season with Penny out of the picture, and it’s only a matter of time before he is knocking on the door to $7,000. Get in cheap while you can. 

D’Onta Foreman ($4,000) is the YOLO play of the week after the Christian McCaffrey trade on Thursday night. He faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the league’s best run defense, so I don’t think I need to go there. But he is the minimum running back salary if you need the relief. 

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase ($8,200) was the key to winning any major tournaments last week after he destroyed the slate for 132 yards and two touchdowns. That jacked his salary up to $8,200 but he is still in a smash spot this week against Atlanta so we can consider him for cash games even with the price hike. Stopping opposing wide receivers has not been a strong suit of the Falcons this year. They have given up the most receptions, the third-most touchdowns, and the fifth-most fantasy points to the position, setting Chase to come in and dominate this matchup. Also working in Chase’s favor is that the Falcons are bottom-10 in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100) is back and healthy now after one missed week, one bye week, and one week where he should have sat with injury. It seems like ages ago that he was putting up back-to-back weeks where he combined for 42.4 DK points, but he can certainly get back to that level, even against a tough opponent like the Cowboys. D.J. Chark still isn’t practicing for the Lions, Josh Reynolds has a knee injury, and Jameson Williams still is not ready to make his NFL debut. That leaves St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson, and not much else on the pass-catching side of things. Even if the massive yardage totals are not there, I expect St. Brown to be back in the neighborhood of 10 targets and eight receptions. 

CeeDee Lamb ($6,800) gets his partner in crime back this week as Dak Prescott with start for the Cowboys after missing most of six games. He gets a very soft landing spot against Detroit this week, and it’s a matchup that should allow Lamb to feast. Detroit is allowing the seventh-most passing yards and tenth-most passing touchdowns per game to opponents this year. Even with Cooper Rush at the helm, Lamb has been playing up to and past this salary. He has not seen less than eight targets this year and only has fewer than five receptions once in six games. 

Tyler Lockett ($5,800) busted last week in his third straight week as a chalky wide receiver. He only put up 3.7 fantasy points against the Cardinals after scoring 30, 14, 16, and 22 in his previous four games. But we, as DFS players, can quickly move past that poor performance and look to this week where we find he is only listed at $5,800 and is in the only game of the week with an implied total of over 50 points. We just need a more accurate Geno Smith to return, which seems like a risky proposition, but we saw it in Weeks 2-5. 

Tight End

Mark Andrews ($7,400) played up to expectations last week when he posted his fourth game of the year with more than 20 DK points. His 106 yards and a touchdown were widely rostered last week, and that is likely to remain the same for Week 7. He continues to be cheaper than Travis Kelce, which just no longer makes sense. Andrews leads all tight ends in target share, air yards, targets, and receiving yards, and is second in touchdowns (because of Kelce’s four-TD game). He should be priced up with the likes of Ja’Marr Chase but never will be because he is a tight end. Just enjoy the ride if you can find space in your roster. Watch practice reports here as Andrews did was not a participant on Wednesday or Thursday due to a knee issue. Isaiah Likely is the pivot if he is out.

Gerald Everett ($4,000) at this salary against the absolute worst tight end defense in the league? Sign me up, please. Everett’s opponent on Sunday, the Seahawks, have been absolutely atrocious against the position this year. Their 23.9 points allowed per game to the position is 4.5 points worse than any other team this season. And even though Seattle has only allowed the 13th-most receptions to tight ends, they are bottom five in both yards allowed and touchdowns allowed. If ever there was a game for Everett to come back in and reclaim his spot as a regular lineup option, it is Week 7 with a $4,000 price tag. 

Foster Moreau ($2,800) and Greg Dulcich ($2,500) are your tight end punt plays du jour, and since this is usually the route I like to go at the position, one of them is likely to be in my lineup. Foster Moreau gets the call on the news that Darren Waller is likely to miss Week 7 against the Houston Texans who allow 12.6 DK points to the position per week. There will be no competition for tight end targets this week, so we really only need 8-10 points for Moreau to fly past his value. Dulcich is coming off a week where he caught a touchdown for the Broncos and has clearly supplanted Albert Okwuegbunam as the primary option at that position. At $2,500, he is at the absolute minimum salary for the position coming off a 12.4-point week. 

Defense/Special Teams

Jacksonville DST ($3,100) on our rosters will require us to have short memories after the disaster from Week 6, but that’s what DFS requires. Indianapolis dropping back 58 times and Jacksonville not getting a sack, interception, or fumble was one of the more fluky things we will see this year. But now they get a home against Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. Jones won’t drop back to pass that many times, but New York is bottom-10 in the league in sack rate against their own quarterback. 

NY Jets DST ($2,600) is my primary target for a spend-down defense as we get into Friday afternoon. As we saw with Breece Hall, the Jets are going to run the ball a lot, slowing down the pace of the game. And while that should work to their advantage, the real benefit here is that the Broncos are now forced to start Brett Rypien or Josh Johnson (on the practice squad), and these guys are just not ready for primetime. The Jets have recorded at least two sacks in four straight games and this game total has plummeted down to just 37.5 points. 

Cash Game Sample Lineup

Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday.  You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. This lineup below pushes aside the pricey Ja’Marr Chase for a more balanced build. Juju Smith-Schuster is the last piece that fits, but for a wide receiver on the Chief who has eight targets or a touchdown in four straight games, you could do a lot worse. Also, you have to love it any time you can get a New York Jets running back and DST stack. Only in DFS…