DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 8
The NFL Week 8 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With seven weeks worth of data, it’s hard not to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
Week 7 Results
This was my cash game lineup in Week 7 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads:
Results:
- Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 4465/6896
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 3132/4597
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 5524/8620
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1635/2298
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 8989/17241
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 6457/11494
- Single Entry $5 Double Up – 1621/2298
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 1916/2873
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 4600/8620
The four-week winning streak officially ended thanks to a bone-headed decision to play Lamar Jackson by your truly. The hindsight right move was to save $800 and play Joe Burrow or go all the way down to Geno Smith or Davis Mills who were both very cheap and in good spots. I didn’t love any build I had with Lamar, to be honest, so that should have been a sign. And that started a domino effect of bad moves such as Joe Mixon over Austin Ekeler and having to force in Nico Collins instead of having enough for D.J. Moore or Romeo Doubs (although he airballed). Live and learn, I guess. I was enticed by Lamar Jackson’s upside but should have known he is no Josh Allen.
Week 8 Cash Plays
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts ($8,300) gets the role of dual-threat high-priced quarterback this week. There is no signal caller within $800 of Hurts this week because of his uncanny ability to beat opponents in the air and on the ground. But like Lamar Jackson last week, I don’t know if we have to get up to $8,300 unless some massive value opens up after we get final injury reports this weekend. Hurts has an incredible matchup against a Steelers team allowing more than 21 DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks, including the third-most passing yards. Add that to a minimum of nine rush attempts in every game this year and this is why get an $8,300 Hurts. He will be excellent, but not necessarily a priority.
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,200) looks like my favorite quarterback option heading into Week 8. His upside is immense as we have already seen a couple of times this year, and now he gets to showcase this new Miami offense against what is possibly the worst defense in the league. The Detroit Lions allow 22.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the fifth-worst in the league. The Dolphins have the highest implied team total on the slate, so as you will see below, it’s quite wise to have multiple pieces from this offense in your cash game lineup.
Daniel Jones ($5,700) is now firmly in consideration for DFS cash games, so that is clearly a sign we are living inside the matrix or something. Absent any kind of respectable receiving corps (and now Kadarius Toney is shipped out), Jones has been taking matters into his own hands, rushing for over 30 yards in four of his last five games including over 100 in Week 7. You also may not believe this, but Jones has not thrown an interception since Week 3. Against the Seahawks, Jones gets a team who has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks and the seventh-most passing yards.
Running Back
Derrick Henry ($8,400) draws a dream matchup this week just as he is starting to play his best football of the season. The Texans allow two more DK points per game to running backs than any other team in the league. They have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards, the third-most touchdowns, and are giving up more than 5.2 yards per rush this season. Henry, as you might expect, has returned to his bell-cow workloads. He has 28 and 30 rush attempts in the last two games and has actually chipped in 13 receptions in the last four games as well.
Tony Pollard ($6,100) will be the next man up assuming Ezekiel Elliott misses the game on Sunday. Pollard would immediately be in line for 80%-90% of the snaps against the Chicago Bears. Normally a stout rush defense, the Bears have turned into baby cubs this year, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards and fifth-most rushing touchdowns. If Pollard is the starter, literally the only bad thing about his situation is that he was so good in a reserve role last week that his salary bumped up $400.
Kenneth Walker ($6,500) is simply still too cheap and will remain too cheap with this level of workload at least until he reaches the mid-$7,000s. Walker has 44 combined carries, 265 combined rushing yards, and three scores over the last two weeks and was a slate-breaker with 31.8 DK points last week. With D.K. Metcalf out for this one, it’s possible Pete Carroll tries to establish the run even HARDER than before and give Walker 25 carries in this game. The Giants have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game this season.
Raheem Mostert ($5,900) has inconsistent box scores and fantasy points the last four weeks, but they certainly don’t tell the whole story. Even though he has two games over 20 DK points and two games under 11, Mostert has seen consistent 14-18 rush attempts and eight total targets over the last four games. He only has one touchdown to show for it, but there is a strong chance of that changing this week. No team has allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Detroit Lions this season (10), and Detroit has allowed the most rushing yards per game to opponents in their last three contests (183.3 yards).
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill ($8,500) should be the primary beneficiary assuming Tagovailoa has a big game (and he will). With Jaylen Waddle playing hurt the last few games, Hill has accumulated 28 targets in Weeks 6 and 7, which have led to 249 receiving yards. Somehow he doesn’t have a touchdown since Week 2, despite ranking fourth in the league in target share and second in the league in air yards. All that does is set Hill up for some positive regression moving forward, and most projections think that starts in Week 8 against the hapless Lions.
Chris Olave ($6,000) is the only player in the league with more air yards than Tyreek Hill. His 16.7-yard aDOT is seventh among wide receivers with at least 100 snaps this year and he is basically the last healthy pass-catcher left for the New Orleans Saints. Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson are both banged up on the tight ends (although Johnson will play). Jarvis Landry is not 100% and Michael Thomas is still out. Add in the fact that Alvin Kamara is allergic to scoring touchdowns this year, and the result is a breakout rookie season for Olave. Las Vegas is 27th in the league in allowing 262.7 passing yards per game this year, and are 20th in opponent’s yards per completion. Sounds like a perfect storm for Olave in Week 8.
D.J. Moore ($5,300) was the skeleton key you needed to unlock more valuable parts of your DFS lineup in Week 7. At just $4,900 last week, it seems to simple in hindsight. He lost his counterpart wide receiver Robbie Anderson in a trade, and the best running back in football (Christian McCaffrey) was sent packing to San Francisco. That left Moore and guys like Tommy Tremble as the only pass-catchers. Unsurprisingly, he broke out of his slump with 10 targets, 69 yards and a score. Now he is slightly more pricey but gets a Falcons defense that is allowing three more DK points per game to wide receivers (48.3) than any other team.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,700) is a fantastic DraftKings-specific punt play at wide receiver this week. Robinson has 12 catches and a touchdown in his past two games, but it’s the 22% target share that should make us sit up and pay attention. The aDOT is very low (4.1 yards), but Daniel Jones is looking for him everywhere he can and allowing him the freedom to catch across the middle and make a play with his speed. Robinson may never be the 120-yard guy, but six catches for 65 yards is all we need to make this investment worth it.
Tight End
Zach Ertz ($5,100) is somehow the second-most expensive tight end option on the slate this week. All of the tight end high-dollar plays are off of the main slate. But he is still just $5,100 and has at least 10 DraftKings points in six of his seven games this year. He also has four games with at least 10 targets, and the Minnesota Vikings allow the sixth-most DK points to tight ends this year.
Juwan Johnson ($3,200) has been on the injury report this week, so be sure to monitor his status prior to lock. We all saw him pop off for five catches and two touchdowns last week at just $2,700. That performance earned him a $500 bump, but that’s still too cheap considering the Saints are without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry is extremely limited right now. Johnson has 11 targets in his last two games, which is just what we are looking for in a $3,000 tight end.
Noah Fant ($2,800) has been objectively awful this year, splitting tight end duties with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. But Fant has seen at least four targets in four of seven games and now he suits up without target hog D.K. Metcalf. When Metcalf went down with an injury, he left behind a 25% target share and 624 air yards. If Fant can just get a little sliver of those looks from Geno Smith, he will be well worth his $2,800 salary against a Giants’ team that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to the position this year.
Defense/Special Teams
Tennessee DST ($3,600) plays a Houston Texans team that has been very generous to opposing defenses and thus seems slightly too cheap for the matchup. Houston is 25th in passing yards per game and 24th in quarterback passer rating. Tennessee has also moved into the top 10 in the NFL with 2.7 sacks per game.
Washington DST ($2,600) will have a hard time not making its way into my cash lineup this week. They are facing Sam Ehlinger who has never taken an NFL snap, the Colts’ offensive line ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders, and Washington has 3.3 sacks per game in their last three contests. That will certainly do for just $2,600.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. The potential issue with this build is that it contains Dolphins players that don’t exactly correlate to massive fantasy points in Tua/Hill and Mostert. I may see if I can swap off of Mostert, but the rest of these guys are approaching must-start status for me.
