DraftKings NFL Picks Week 6: Chalk, Pivots, and Punts

***By the way, don’t forget to check out the awesome tools that FantasyData added for this year, including Fantasy Projections, a DFS NFL Optimizer, and a DFS NFL Stacking Tool ***

QUARTERBACKS

• BEST BETS: Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers
• PIVOTS: Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tom Brady
• PUNTS: Daniel Jones

With this being a smaller slate (possibly getting smaller) we’re not left with a whole lot for elite plays at the QB position. A few of the QBs I will be drawn to this week will be the dual-threat types like Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, and Lamar Jackson. Each of these guys adds some floor in what could be a down week for QB scoring. None of them are in particularly great match-ups but what they do for their offense will go a long way. Watson gets a secondary that can be picked apart, especially in the slot (I have a play for that later) and Tennessee doesn’t get many sacks. Newton faces a depleted Broncos secondary and will get his number called at the goal line. Jackson faces a tougher passing match-up and may be forced to run more this week. He’s more pivot for me than anything at his price but I always have him in the pool because of how he forces your roster construction to be more unique.

Aaron Rodgers has given us two games over 32 DK points already on the year with a floor game of 19.2 DK points. The Tampa pass defense is has played well against the lower tier competition they have faced so far at QB but we cannot expect them to hold Rodgers back too much here. Some stats/metrics to note include: the Bucs pass defense has allowed the 5th highest completion percentage but has held opponents to low Yards Per Attempt and Yards Per Completion rates; the Packers offense leads Football Outsiders Drive Success Rate and Points per Drive metrics while Tampa is the toughest defense in Drive Success Rate and 5th in Points Per Drive; and, both QBs lead the NFL with 30 deep pass attempts each, with Rodgers doing this in one less game played. Both teams have good offensive lines so we might see plenty of deep attempts in this match-up. Both team defenses are allowing RBs to see over 9 targets per game and are allowing 18 (GB) and 15.9 (TB) DK points to RBs through receptions. Simply stated, both teams will attack in every way possible and this is likely the top “build around” game of the slate. I’m in one Rodgers and Tom Brady in this spot. Brady is a bit more iffier due to the injuries to his skill position players. If they’re all (or most) good to go, Brady is in play.

There is a QB on this slate that is favored to win a game with a 55 implied point total, against a team allowing a league-high 8.5 fantasy passing points per game boost to opposing QBs, yet he is only priced at $6100. Kirk Cousins is that QB and he is your pivot off of the Mattison chalk this week. The Falcons run defense has been pretty good this year and if the Falcons offense gets going, then Cousins is going to have to put the ball in the air – which if Kubiak is reading the tape correctly they will do without it being the result of falling in a hole early. When we look at the match-up chart we see Jacksonville can be beaten in a multitude of ways and while RB is one of the green boxes (QB, RB, Slot, and TE all green boxes), the Jaguars have allowed 11 passing TD opposed to 5 on the ground (1 of those was by a QB) we might want to focus our attention over tot he Lions passing game here. Matthew Stafford has thrown multiple TDs in 3 out of 4 games this year, including 3 TDs last week. He’s got Golladay another 2 weeks healthier (bye week in there) and all the rest of his weapons available. The stats that have my attention for Stafford are the 75.8% completion percentage and 8.7 yards per attempt allowed by the Jaguars defense, both are the worst in the league. The knock on Stafford is the low pass attempts totals and no 300-yard games in 2020. That’s a valid concern, one which will keep his ownership depressed, but I will have some exposure in case the 3 TD and 300-yard game pops off this week. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick has put together 4 straight games over 25 DK points and gets to face a struggling Jets defense (team) at home in the Miami heat with thunderstorms possible. I’ll want to watch the weather reports on this before confidently adding Fitz to any builds, but he’s set up well if weather permits. If the weather does become a factor, then Miles Gaskin is a reasonable play, although I might prefer David Johnson or Antonio Gibson at the same price area. Daniel Jones is a high-risk play. The dude loses a fumble or throws an interception every week and has yet to score more than 19.36 DK points in a game this year. What he is is a favored QB (per Vegas lines) and he is in the $5k range for pricing. Looking at Jones’ box scores has to make one wonder how long he can go without a TD (passing or rushing). His current drought is 4 games. The WFT has allowed 4 rushing TDs by QBs over the last 4 games. Interesting. The Redskins are a solid defense, and I’ll have exposure to them as well, but the possibility of Jones hitting some TD regression and other statistical regression is going to keep him on my radar this week. 

RUNNING BACKS

• BEST BETS: Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson, David Montgomery, Mike Davis, Derrick Henry
• PIVOTS: Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, Todd Gurley, Antonio Gibson, David Johnson, Aaron Jones
• PUNTS: J.D McKissic, Devonta Freeman, Frank Gore

The Bengals already are allowing the third-most rushing yard per game (and per carry) in the NFL and just lost two starters on the DL for this week (Reader for the season). Jonathan Taylor is in a prime spot to benefit from the Bengals misfortune here. The Colts offense would like to run the ball as often as possible (47.8% of the time on the year) and Taylor is handling 52% of the carries (15.2 per game) coming out of the Colts backfield. His 3 targets last week were a nice surprise and will be more than welcomed going forward to help raise his floor. One dent in Taylor this week is that Cincy has allowed just 4 rushing TD this year with only 1 multi-TD rushing game allowed. Perhaps with those starting defensive-linemen out, the TDs will come, Taylor will need them without any targets added to his workload. No team is seeing their opponents choose to run the ball against them more than Detroit (50.2%) has this year. The Lions have surrendered the most fantasy points through rushing yards alone this year and are the bottom of the league in defensive drive success rate, per Football Outsiders. As long as James Robinson doesn’t try the dribble-then-pass play again this week he should find himself to be a busy man, especially if either/or of Chark or Shenault miss this game. David Montgomery is the next RB in line to face the Panthers defense that is surrendering 36 fantasy points per week to the RB position (most in the league). The Panthers are allowing 10 targets per game to RBs (3rd most) and Montgomery has picked up most of Cohen’s vacated targets (8 and 6 the past two weeks) giving him valuable opportunities to maintain a floor while he doesn’t get much yardage rushing the ball, granted he has faced two of the top-4 run defenses each of the past two weeks. We’ll see if Nagy reduces Foles’ ridiculous 42 pass attempts per game and gets the ball to Montgomery more, after all, Montgomery is seeing light boxes (8 or more defenders just 6.5% of the time per Next Gen Stats). The Panthers losing Short for the year and could possibly be without Gross-Matos and/or Burns adds to Montgomery’s appeal. Mike Davis gets a bit of a revenge game here. When the Bears signed Davis they told him he was the man in that backfield, then they drafted David Montgomery in the 3rd round of the draft that year and Davis was released from the Bears after 7 games. The revenge game may add some juice to this match-up but Davis has such locked-in volume he’s a priority play most weeks. The Bears defense is not a great match-up for Davis in any regard, other than he will see 22 opportunities and if we combine CMC and Davis’ Red Zone carries, then together they total 24 (2nd most n the NFL). Davis has a floor of 15 (TB game) and a ceiling of 29.9 (last week). Not many RBs on this slate can match that ceiling. Derrick Henry should be the highest owned RB of the slate against the Texans run defense that has already allowed 802 yards on the ground to enemy ball-carriers. If you’re playing multi-entry, then you’re going to want exposure. You can make a case to fade him as a chalk piece if you’re playing small entry stuff. If you would like to pivot off of Henry, the best choice is probably paying up a little and getting Aaron Jones instead. Jones is averaging ~5 fewer opportunities per game but sees an average of 3 more targets per game to make up the gap. There will be parts of the field that looks at the TB run defense numbers and not realize Vita Vea was a big part of those numbers and is now out for the year. Tampa is struggling with pass-catching RBs, allowing 15.9 DK points per game, giving Jones at least the same ceiling as Henry. 

Miles Sanders scored 2 TDs on the bench of my favorite redraft team last week because I didn’t want to start him against the Steelers defense. I will not bench him this week and will be more than willing to get some exposure to him in DFS. The Ravens are getting picked apart by pass-catching RBs to the tune of 9.2 targets allowed per game on the season, and in these past few games they’ve allowed 62.3 receiving yards to opposing #1 RBs – a problem I am sure they are aware of and working on – but I am still interested in picking on them until they show they have fixed their glitch. The Colts surrendered their highest total of rush yards of the season against the Browns last week. The Bengals watched in horror as their franchise QB was battered (sacked 7 times) by the Ravens defense. If Darius Leonard is out again this week, you could leverage the Taylor chalk by flipping over to Joe Mixon in a game he should be the focal point of the offense this week. The Bengals have been trying to get Mixon more involved in the passing game (he saw 8 targets last week) which would help out Burrow by getting the ball out to one of their best play-makers for run after the catch yardage. This is more of a game-theory and match-up based (if Leonard misses) play than a locked-in pivot, but with Mixon being $200 cheaper than Taylor and $100 cheaper than Gurley, we’ll get him with low ownership in the even the Bengals commit to him to preserve Burrow. Despite his offensive coordinator getting bored with the run too early in games, Todd Gurley is an interesting play for me this week against a Vikings defense that has been gashed by Taylor and Henry this year, both are younger and sprier than Gurley at this stage in his career, but maybe it’s possible interim Head Coach Morris and OC Koetter watch the tape from last week’s loss and see that Gurley might give them their best chance to win here. Minnesota’s defense is allowing the 4th-highest Adjusted Line Yards, 6th-highest Run DVOA, and 9th-most rushing yards per game in the league. We’ll see how this goes, but I’ll be playing some Gurley lines this week.

David Johnson is a hard one to put in a build and feel good about it. I had a little exposure to him last week and in this spot, he deserves some exposure again. Tennessee’s defense is allowing a league-leading 5.5 Yard Per Carry. Their DL is allowing the second-most second-level yards and the most open field yards. If Johnson gets past the line of scrimmage, he may find himself with a lot of open space. His volume is trending up with total opportunity counts of 15, 15, 16, 19, then 21 last week. If we can get 20 opportunities against this Titans defense for $5400, then we have to take advantage of that. It seems likely Antonio Gibson will get two starting OL back in front of him this week as he faces a Giants team that has not been generous in yards to RBs but has allowed them to score 4 rushing TDs. Given the potential for at least one rushing TD, Gibson’s pass-catching skills, his 15.3 opportunities per game since week 2, and a $5500 DK salary and I’m on board. We should take notice of who has been stealing some of Gibson’s targets in that WFT backfield. J.D. McKissic has seen 8 targets in each of his last 2 games. This game with the Giants sets up for similar volume potential for McKissic. We have to figure McLaurin will see plenty of the Bradberry Blanket forcing Kyle Allen to do what he was comfortable doing in Carolina, passing to his RBs. With McKissic scoring over 10 points these past two weeks, it wouldn’t take much more than what he’s doing plus a TD to get him near that 20 point area and give us plenty of return on that low salary. I’ve got Devonta Freeman in my pool simply for the salary savings we can gain with him. He’s not in a good match-up but has increased his workload from 5 opportunities in Week 3 to 15 in Week 4, then 20 last week. Getting 20 shots at a touch for under $5k is worth getting a little bit of exposure to. Ok, so I’m going to write up Frank Gore even though I am not likely going to go there this week. Gore has narratives going here (former employer, home city, farewell tour?) and has no one in front of him at the RB position and might be playing on a sloppy field. No, he’s not going to get a GPP winning score. I just wanted to talk Frank Gore because he’s a good dude and good for football. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

• BEST BETS: Adam Thielen, Calvin Ridley, Allen Robinson, Devante Parker, Davante Adams
• PIVOTS: Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Preston Williams, Jamison Crowder, Chris Godwin
• PUNTS: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Scotty Miller

The Falcons secondary doesn’t have anyone who will be able to keep Adam Thielen from going bananas this week. Thielen has two weeks in a row with 10 or more targets, is averaging 22.2 fantasy points per game, and faces a Falcons team that is forcing their opponents to throw the ball 40.8 times per game (3rd highest on the slate). On the other side of the ball from Thielen is the Falcons target vacuum, Calvin Ridley. In a game with a 55 point implied total and with Dirk Koetter calling the offense, there has to be room for Ridley’s 10+ targets to ransack the weak cornerbacks of the Vikings. Outside WRs are scoring 7.6 fantasy points above league average against the Vikes (3rd-most in the league). If this game gets cooking, Ridley will play a major role. Since Nick Foles took over at QB he has been relentlessly targeting his top weapon, Allen Robinson, at the rate of 28% of his throws – and he is throwing a lot (42 each of the last two games). The passing volume should tapper back some against the Panther defense that welcomes you to utilize your RB but the passes that do go up will mostly be intended for Robinson. His recent target counts support the $7k price but the match-up will require a back-and-forth affair for Robinson to hit a dozen targets here. He’s in my best bets should that scenario pan out but I am not sure I’ll go heavy at this point. The Miami duo of Devante Parker and Preston Williams look great this week, as long as the weather looks ok. The Jets outside corners are nearly as bad as that poor Brian Allen kid the 49ers called up from the practice squad to get torched by these guys last week. The only thing standing in their way would be Fitz-Magic dealing everyone in and no one has a GPP winning score. I’ll build rosters with only one Miami piece, at most, for this reason. 

As long as Kenny Golladay is priced in the lower $6k area he’ll be on my radar. He played two games coming off a hamstring injury but has had a bye week now to rest up. Golladay is carrying solid Air Yard %, Target %, and Weighted Opportunity scores for the Lions this year and we’ll want to keep an eye on C.J. Henderson’s game status this week. If Henderson is out, it forces slot corner Herndon to come outside on base downs where Golladay will smoke him. JuJu Smith-Schuster gets a run at the Cleveland defense that is allowing the highest uptick in scoring to slot WRs on the slate. JuJu’s target counts have not been great this year, so there is some downside to this play, but he also acts as a game theory piece to steal the points while the field is chasing Claypool’s Week 5 performance. Regardless of the weather conditions in Miami, we should expect Jamison Crowder to be heavily involved in the game plan. Crowder has 10+ targets in all three of his games this year and draws a match-up with Nik Needham. PFF has this inside their top 10 match-ups where the advantage goes to the receiver. 

Davante Adams has been practicing in full since injuring his hammy in Week 2 and will either square off with an inquired Carlton Davis or Jamel Dean on the outside. Davis is the Bucs CB that travels with #1 WRs, however, his slot rate is low giving the Packers a chance to take advantage of the Bucs weakest CB (Murphy-Bunting) in the slot if they want to bring Adams in there for the mismatch. Adams is still going to get his targets, it’ll just be a path of least resistance inside. In what could be a shootout environment, we’ll want Rodgers top weapon. Marquez Valdes-Scantling could be in play here as well. If Davis is out and Dean covers Adams, then MVS gets Murphy-Bunting on the outside in 2 WR sets, and whoever the 4th corner is when SMB moves into the slot when the Packers show 11 personnel. The Buccaneers WRs will be interesting this week because we’re not sure who will play yet, as of Friday morning. Arians thinks Chris Godwin will play, and if so, he’s likely to draw Jaire Alexander in coverage with King on Mike Evans (if Evans plays). My assumption is Arians plays Godwin away from Alexander as much as possible making him the most valuable play in this match-up, which would put Alexander in front of Evans. Scotty Miller, the 3rd questionable Bucs WR this week, will primarily line up outside. Miller will be a better play if Godwin is out but I may still try him as a punt in some other lines for the salary relief. 

TIGHT ENDS

• BEST BETS: Mark Andrews, Jonnu Smith, Mike Gesicki
• PIVOTS: T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, Eric Ebron, Rob Gronkowski
• PUNTS: Irv Smith, Jordan Akins

The Eagles defense has been roasted by TEs this year, starting with Logan Thomas’ only good game, followed by Higbee’s 3 TD game, and most recently George Kittle’s dominating performance. Lamar Jackson says he wants to do a better job of getting Boykin and Snead involved, but with the Eagles defensive-line pressure bearing down on him he’s going to go to the guy he trusts the most, which seems to be Mark Andrews. Jonnu Smith should be in for another good game with Zach Cunningham and Eric Murray in coverage. The two of them have combined to allow a hair under 70 yards per game in coverage. The way the Dolphins are using Mike Gesicki all over the field is beautiful. It allows them to dictate the match-ups across the board. Gesicki has lined up overwhelmingly in a slot position and is not asked to stay on the line and block. He’s got 33 snaps out wide as well. He’s going to be a nightmare for this Jets defense to keep up with.

The Jaguars defense has allowed 4 TDs to TEs this year and is bumping TE scoring by 3.6 points per game. They are also bumping slot WR points per game by 4.4 T.J. Hockenson will play a dual role here, if the Lions coaching is smart. Hockenson has a 21% rate of lining up in the slot which will allow him to exploit the Jaguars defense from inline or in the slot. The match-up gets better for hock if Miles Jack misses another game here. Evan Engram made my list last week and I’m sticking with him here. What I’m seeing is a guy they tried to get more involved last week, in creative ways. He caught a TD on a fake FG attempt that was nullified by a procedure penalty and ran one in. He’s coming off the field for Toilolo in obvious blocking situations, keeping him fresh for doing what he does best – catching the ball. If this creativity continues, perhaps they break him away from just running sticks and curls and allow him to split the seems against a defense that is allowing a 5.6 fantasy point bump to TEs. Draft Kings still has him priced higher than he should be, but that (and his box scores) will keep people away. Perhaps he flops again this week, but he’s the Giants best player in this match-up and worth one more shot. Similar to Engram, I keep trying to like Eric Ebron when he gets a good match-up (the Browns struggle against TEs) but he is prone to disappointing even with a solid share of targets. He’s on my list for this week but we’ll see if he makes the final cut. The uncertainty surrounding the Buccaneers WRs status as of Friday morning has to point our focus inside where Rob Gronkowski may end up being Brady’s favorite target this week. His numbers to date with Tampa are not going to win a GPP and we risk getting 10 or less here which isn’t great at this price. However, outside match-ups and possibly inactive WRs could break Gronk out here.

Irv Smith is an interesting, minimum priced option at TE this week. There aren’t many guys below $4k to feel that strongly about so might as well go all the way down the salary scale and get a guy that looks like he may have come alive a bit last week with 5 targets and 64 yards. Only the Saints have allowed more fantasy points to TEs this year. Jordan Akins might be a sneaky play this week against the Titans struggles in the slot. Akins lines up in the slot 17.8 times per game compared to Randall Cobb’s 25.0 slot snaps per game and is a cheaper way to attack the Titans in the slot and not using a WR spot to do it. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

• BEST BETS: Ravens, Steelers, Patriots
• PIVOTS: Colts, Redskins, Dolphins
• PUNTS: Titans

The Ravens DST is taking the ball away 2 times per game and allowing the fewest points scored against them. Wentz is dealing with a revolving door in front of him on the OL making this the premier defense of the slate if you can afford to get there. If the Colts DST can generate anywhere near the pressure the Ravens did (IND is only 3 spots behind BAL in Adjusted Sack Rate), then Burrow will be in for another long day. At the rate Daniel Jones turns the ball over, his lack of trustworthy protection against this Washington DL, and the low implied total of this game put the Washington DST on my radar. The Titans DST did a great job against Josh Allen and the Bills on national TV and now get to face a division opponent. The implied total on this game isn’t friendly for using them in most circumstances but Watson takes a lot of sacks and turns the ball over once per game on average. They are one of the DST’s below $3k worth a shot this week. Baker Mayfield is dealing with a chest injury and Chubb is on IR IR making this match-up a bit easier for one of the best defenses in the league, the Steelers DST. How can we not consider the Miami DST against Joe Flacco and Frank Gore in a possible thunderstorm game this week? The Patriots DST should be able to handle the inexperience Denver offense, especially if MG3 is out with the illness he was sent home for on Friday.

FINAL THOUGHTS

There are plenty of ways to keep cumulative ownership down while using some of the stacks from the top build around games on this slate. This exercise helped me find more plays than I thought there would be upon initial glance. I’ll continue to grind throughout the weekend refining my player pool and roster builds until we’re locked. You can keep track here. Good luck this week, and thanks for reading!