DraftKings NFL Picks Week 7: Chalk, Pivots, and Punts

***By the way, don’t forget to check out the awesome tools that FantasyData added for this year, including Fantasy Projections, a DFS NFL Optimizer, and a DFS NFL Stacking Tool ***

QUARTERBACKS

• BEST BETS: Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray
• PIVOTS: Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew
• PUNTS: Drew Brees, Kyle Allen

Josh Allen is has put in 4 straight games with a lower score than the previous and is looking for a reversal for the pattern. Luckily, he gets to face the Jets, a team he’s already beat, and hung 33 points on this year. The Jets don’t jump out for QB scoring on the match-up chart, this just feels more like a game Allen needs to have to get back on track. The Jets are a low-pressure defense that should put Allen back into a comfort zone to utilize his weapons here. Matt Ryan made my “dummy build” as I took my first stab at this slate. The Lions have weaknesses in the run defense and outside at the corners with the youngsters learning as they go out there. Koetter will try to run Gurley early on, then get bored and call pass plays for the second half, as that has been his tendency. Across the ball, I want to like Matt Stafford but his 31 pass attempts per game at his price point are a turn-off, even with ATL forcing the 5th-highest opponent pass rate. Stafford had me wondering if he’s priced appropriately at QB9 for the slate (out of 22). My theory was he was over-priced for his volume but the study shows he’s not a value but seems to fit where he’s slotted. He’s going to be one I look at until lock but will not have him listed here as a Best Bet or Pivot because of my indecisiveness at the moment. In games that Patrick Mahomes has started and finished against the Broncos, he’s posted yardage totals of 284 (1st career start), 304, 303, and 340 with 8 total TDs. The Broncos have only allowed one 300-yard passer so far this year but it was also one of the only good passers they faced (Big Ben 301, and Tanny threw for 249). Mahomes is scrambling more often this year adding some of those 0.1 point yards to his totals and running in TDs. It’s weird to see a slate where he is not the highest priced QB. I’ll take advantage of that. Russell Wilson at $8k is going to be tough to put a build together you might like, however, in the other sections of this piece there are quite a few values plays that will help make a Wilson/Metcalf stack build look good. Things I like about Wilson this week are: this is a battle for placement in their divisional standings (and a bye week to prepare), both teams possess the ball for less than 29 minutes per game which would seem to add plays for both sides, and both teams allow/force over 39 pass attempts per game. What I like even more about that last stat is that Seattle is allowing 47.8 pass attempts against (most in the NFL) which would indicate this game could take to the air at a significant pace. This being said, we have to like both QBs in this matchup, especially with the running ability Kyler Murray is showing this year. I prefer Wilson over Murray here because the Cardinals offense is more predictable in how they use their players, which makes me wonder if Kingsbury has been keeping it vanilla in anticipation of adding a wrinkle for this game. We also have to consider if Russ gets cooking, then Murray has to as well. A bonus to rostering either of these QBs (team’s players) is watching your lineup play with the last game hammers. 

Teddy Bridgewater stands out as a solid play that will be forced to throw. The Saints have an advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball where they will be able to protect Drew Brees and get out to a lead early. Carolina likely won’t be able to run the ball with much success forcing the game into Bridgewater’s hands against a defense he’s practiced against for two years. The Saints offer a defense allowing 3 passing TDs per game with a multi-touchdown game every week they’ve played. If the defense/secondary didn’t get fixed over the bye week, Bridgewater has plenty of upside. In the study I did to find if Stafford was priced appropriately, it pointed to Bridgewater being the best value on the slate. Ryan Tannehill will be quarterbacking a game that involves 2 teams averaging over 30 points per game this year and he’s getting one of his WRs (Corey Davis) back this week. We’ll want to watch AJ Brown’s status, as he missed Thursday’s practice with a knee injury after having no practice designation the day before. Still, if Tennessee is going to win this game it’ll have to come through the air. The Steelers are incredibly hard to run on, though Derrick Henry may have a better chance than other opponents, more so with Devin Bush out. The Titans are running plays at the 3rd-fastest pace in neutral situations but have a negative time of possession differential compared to the Steelers. Tannehill’s price shows he’s a value play in the QB Price Study and if he has all three of his WRs ready he should beat his DK salary this week. The answer is Gardner Minshew and the question is guess who’s thrown the ball 40+ times in 5 straight weeks and faces a defense allowing 40 pass attempts per game. The Chargers are also allowing the 4th-most passing yards, 3rd-most completions, and 5th-most passing TD%. Everything lines up for Minshew to have a great game in this spot. The Chargers like to keep everything in front of them on defense and allow a shallow YPA and YPC so I’ve kept that in mind with the Minshew pass-catchers to stack him with this week in the paragraphs below (Hint: Robinson and Cole).

Feels weird to list Drew Brees as a punt, but since Payton likes to get gimmicky around the goal-line reducing TD opportunities for the old man. Brees is in a match-up with the lowest combined Adjusted Sack Rate, coming off a bye week where the team has had time to self-scout and reconfigure, and may get Michael Thomas back (all weapons healthy). The game sets up better for Kamara and the ground game but the Saints could try to go back to the way they used to win games by jumping out to a quick two-score lead and keeping their foot on the gas, especially if the secondary continues to struggle. Kyle Allen is interesting in this game against Dallas. The Cowboys have a low average of passes attempted against them, except for when they’ve played high volume passing teams (ATL & SEA), and Washington is passing at a higher rate per game than either of the Falcons or Seahawks. Allen is 3rd in my QB Price Study for value and threw the ball 43 times last week. He might be more of a cash play but he might find his way into some of my GPP lines.

RUNNING BACKS

• BEST BETS: Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Aaron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott
• PIVOTS: Todd Gurley, Ronald Jones, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, James Robinson 
• PUNTS: David Johnson, J.D. McKissic, Justin Jackson

The Panthers are one of 6 teams allowing 9 or more targets to RBs this year. While most of that came in the first three weeks of the season, we should recognize the most recent three teams they played do not throw to their RBs as often as the first three and no one throws to their RBs as much as the Saints. Alvin Kamara is averaging 9 targets per game and will continue to be a major focal point of their offense, even if Thomas returns (Thomas should help him find more room even). There are two completely lopsided OL-vs-DL matchups on this slate and Kareem Hunt is the beneficiary of one of them. You can bet Stefanski is going to want to line up and run the ball down this decimated Bengals defensive line. The last time these teams played Chubb went for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns. Hunt is dealing with a chest injury so if he doesn’t play then we get a free square with D’Ernest Johnson. The other beneficiary of a lopsided OL/DL matchup is Aaron Jones. The Packers have a huge advantage in the run game, as well as a 7 minutes and 41 seconds advantage in average time of possession compared to the Texans. Also, the Texans have the 5th toughest pass-rushing DL which may direct LaFleur to call more run plays or have Rodgers looking for a quick dump-off under pressure. If the Pack can get Jones into the open field, that’s where he can exploit the Texans league-worst Open Field Yards allowed. We’re going to want to watch Bakhtiari’s status for this game to make sure the OL data remains supported. When a team loses offensive linemen like Dallas has, it sort of forces them into more of a run-first mindset, assuming the replacements are less trustworthy in pass protection. The Washington Football Team is the 3rd-most run against defense in the league and has allowed 129 rushing yards per game over their last 5 games. Ezekiel Elliott seems like a good bet to get fed this weekend and typically carries one of the heaviest workloads of any RB in the NFL when he doesn’t get a series off for fumbling twice.

The Lions were getting mashed by the run heading into their bye week and came out of that to hold Jacksonville to 44 yards on the ground. I don’t love the setup for Todd Gurley if this is the new Lions run defense, but Gurley is in a good spot if the Lions regress to what they were. This might happen if they get Trufant and Flowers back at corner this week. Not that either guy is great, but it will add some experience to their CB rotation and may persuade Koetter to try and run a little more often. Gurley is priced low enough to like him while your cycling through builds looking for a number 2 or 3 RB, and he’s sandwiched right between two RBs that are likely to be chalky for this slate (CEH and Jet). Gurley also acts as a pivot from the high ownership of the Falcons passing weapons. The Raiders defense has allowed 2 rushing TDs in every game this year (a couple of those games included QB rushing TDs) and is getting picked on by RBs in the passing game (league-high 29% RB target rate against). With the way Ronald Jones has been playing and the game setting up to feature him against this defense, he makes for a great pay-down/pivot option on this slate. The Denver defense has allowed the top two bell-cow backs they’ve faced to run for 100+ on them while holding the Bucs, Jets, and Pats rushing games in check. Clyde Edwards-Helaire seems likely to get one more week of bell-cow usage before Lev Bell starts cutting significantly into his work. With the way they fed CEH and considering the losses of Osemele and Schwartz in back-to-back weeks, we may just see the Chiefs trying to run as often as possible to keep Mahomes from taking too many hits. James Robinson may be a sneakier play this week after being a fantasy disappointment over the past few games. The Chargers are strong against the run but allow the highest average targets (10.4 per game) to RBs. Thompson will get a few of those RB targets this week but if the Chargers hold to their average and allow 10 targets the split between Robinson/Thompson implies a 6 to 4 target advantage to Robinson, who leads Thompson 85 to 6 in carries. It is reasonable to project 20 opportunities for Robinson this week and with 6 of those possibly being targets the value is there for a pivot to Robinson for this slate. 

The Packers defense is allowing a league-leading 10 point boost to RBs via the rush and a 9.6 boost to RBs in general (also league-leading). David Johnson has seen his carry totals increase each of the past 5 weeks and sees a range of 2 to 4 targets per game. He’ll need to score TDs and/or get to 100 yards for the DK bonus to produce a 20+ point game but he’s showing a double-digit floor providing a solid risk/reward play. J.D. McKissic was in the pool last week and I’m considering him again here. He’s like DJ where his price is low enough and his floor has been stable enough lately that he either gives you the 10 point floor or rewards you with a 20 point game. His upside is capped a bit more than DJ’s but he saves a little more in salary if needed. McKissic had 1 less carry than Antonio Gibson last week, seemingly indicating more of a split in the backfield, increasing volatility with both players but he Cowboys defense has the highest rush percentage against in the NFL (WFT 3rd-most) which could open up opportunities for both guys, McKissic is just the cheaper of the two making him the better punt play. As long as Justin Jackson looks good to go for this week’s game, he is one of the better values on the slate at $4900. As the starter last week, Jackson handled 21 opportunities (15 Carries & 6 Targets) while Kelley had 12 of his own (11/1). If you’ve watched any Chargers games this year, you will find Kelley slamming his runs into the backsides of his offensive linemen while Ekeler and Jackson are finding the holes and chewing up more yards per carry. The targets Jackson adds to his stat line make him the better play for LA in this matchup against a Jaguars defense allowing 30+ points per game to opposing RBs. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

• BEST BETS: Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, Terry McLaurin, A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf
• PIVOTS: Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore, Jamison Crowder, Kenny Golladay, Brandin Cooks, Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett
• PUNTS: Cole Beasley, A.J. Green, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Diontae Johnson, Keelan Cole, Christian Kirk, Gabriel Davis

The Bills should have more time to operate their passing game against the Jets this week and do not face a daunting secondary to force Allen to check down to Beasley as much as he has recently. This should help Stefon Diggs see a bump in targets this week, likely back above 10 targets. With that many targets, Diggs is a lock for 100 yards and at least 1 TD. That being said, Cole Beasley has become the trusted check down target for Allen and deserves consideration at the $4900 price point on Draft Kings. Dirk Koetter has to be excited about going against this young Lions secondary and former teammate Trufant this week. He has two of the best WRs in the game to work with and a good enough RB to keep the run game a threat against the Lions not-good-but-getting-better run defense. [FRIDAY UPDATE: John Brown has been ruled out giving a clear path to Gabriel Davis to make a case for top punt-play/free-square on the board this week.] Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones could both put up 20+ DK points this week with the matchups they’ll see, but more than likely one will score in the 30’s while the other is in the low-20’s. It’s viable to stack Ryan with both or split exposure to one or the other throughout multiple lines. If Ryan and the receivers are hitting, that would put a burden on the Lions passing game to keep pace and the Falcons are allowing a healthy 7.2 boost to outside WRs (2nd-most of the slate). This scenario would put Kenny Golladay as a player to add to any ATL passing stacks or as a pivot off of the higher ownership of the ATL guys. Terry McLaurin is in a great spot this week as one of the few healthy WRs standing for the WFT and in a match-up that has been highly favorable to outside WRs. Dallas is allowing 2.33 passing TDs per game and it wouldn’t be a surprise if McLaurin catches two TDs here as Allen’s top weapon. As long as A.J. Brown’s knee doesn’t force him to miss this game, he should be in line for another solid outing. The Steelers best CB (Haden) primarily lines up on the offense’s right side while Brown will line up all over, but mostly on the left side, thus avoiding Haden in coverage. The Titans will likely have to throw to win this game and he’s the best weapon in the Titans air attack. DK Metcalf is coming off an 11 target game (only his third game of 10+ in his career) and has logged 90+ yards in every game this year. Metcalf ranks in the top 5 in total Air Yards, aDOT, team Air Yard %, as well as 7th in WOPR. He’s also got 8 plays of 20+ yards on the season. If this game turns into a shootout, he’s got a great chance to hit some big plays.

Since my opinion of the Panthers/Saints game is that Carolina will have to throw to stay in (win?) the game, I will be focusing on builds that include Bridgewater combined with either Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, or Ian Thomas. The two wide-outs have greater upside and I prefer them Robby, then DJ because of how they are being used. Anderson appears to be the alpha and in Rhule’s system, one he played in at Temple. Anderson has three 100-yard games to Moore’s one and averages nearly 5 more points than Moore. Jamison Crowder is back under $6k making him a great pivot option as a target vacuum that will face the Bills worst corners in the slot. The duo of Johnson and Lewis manning the slot corner have surrendered a catch on all but 1 of 13 targets in their coverage over the past 2 weeks. Meanwhile, Crowder has at least 10 targets each week he’s played this year. With Alexander likely to trail Will Fuller, I’m turning my attention to a (still) underpriced Brandin Cooks. Cooks has target counts of 12 then 9 over the past two weeks, which seem about the range we could see here if Alexander is shutting down Fuller. Assuming the Chiefs have a plan to protect Mahomes behind their patchwork OL, we could see Tyreek Hill put up his first monster score on DK this week. Hill will likely be followed by the Broncos top corner (Callahan) while lining up outside but may be able to escape him in the slot, where Hill has lined up 60% of the time compared to Callahan’s 5%. Denver is a pass funnel defense and WRs are seeing 22.8 targets per game against them. Hill’s price has been in a downtrend since opening up at $7900 in week 1 and this week he’s priced at $6400. Seems like a good time to buy the friggen dip. Tyler Lockett is the more volatile WR on the Seahawks making him an excellent pivot off of Metcalf. Both guys have a path to big games and DK has the better deep yards data but Lockett has a 6 to 4 edge in red-zone targets. The main reason to keep Lockett in the pool is to differentiate from the Wilson/Metcalf stacks by either pivoting from DK to Lockett or use both.

A.J. Green is priced down to $4300 this week after posting an 11 target, 8 catch game against the Colts in Week 6. All three of the Bengals WRs are active in the offense now but if I’m taking a shot on one, I want the cheapest of the trio. Marquez Valdes-Scantling could benefit from Adams being shadowed by Bradley Roby while MVS draws a lot of Hargreaves, who is ranked more than 75 spots lower than Roby per PFF grades. His floor is low, but so is his price. The match-up could bounce him back toward the 20 point area, where he was in Week 1 when he was priced the same as he is here. While Diontae Johnson was out with a back injury, rookie Chase Claypool was stealing all the thunder. Now with Johnson back in the fold, we’ll have to see how the Steelers rotation at WR will go. Before leaving the Steelers week 3 game against Houston with a concussion (then the back injury forcing him out in week 5), Johnson was seeing double-digit target counts the first two weeks of the season. Claypool certainly deserves to cut into someone’s snaps. Whether that’s Diontae’s or Washington’s, we’ll have to see. However, Johnson is priced at $4200 after seeing 23 targets in his first two games screams punt value here. Believe it or not, Keelan Cole is Jacksonville’s leading receiver this year. He leads the team in targets, receptions, yards, 20+ yard receptions, first downs, and is tied for the lead in TDs and longest catch. The Chargers are allowing/forcing the 2nd-most pass attempts per game (40) to opponents giving Cole some ceiling to work with here. Cole’s ceiling game came last week when he scored 23.3 and he’s scored 15+ on three occasions this year. Solid floor and a 20+ point ceiling make him a steal at $4700. Draft Kings is still giving away Christian Kirk for under $5k against a defense allowing the 5th-most yards per pass attempt. Kirk is a low volume guy that makes big plays. Seattle has allowed 6 pass plays over 40 yards (tied for most) and 22 of over 20 yards (4th-most). This would be a good time to roster the deep guy for an offense playing the Cardinals. The Seahawks will likely be focused on doubling Hopkins which may allow Kirk to find room as he did against Dallas last week.

TIGHT ENDS

• BEST BETS: Travis Kelce, George Kittle
• PIVOTS: T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Schultz, Rob Gronkowski
• PUNTS: Ian Thomas, David Njoku

Travis Kelce and George Kittle are the two elite TEs in the NFL and worth a look every week. They will often force a unique build when allocating that percentage of your salary to the TE position, especially Kelce if you stack him with Mahomes. Of the two, Kelce seems to have the easier path to success but neither guy can be counted out with the genius minds calling plays for them.

Similar to my thoughts on Stafford above, I want to like T.J. Hockenson, but his price is gross (TE3). His average DK points per game do not justify a $5k price tag. The best I can say for him right now is he’s in a great matchup and not many people are going to want to spend up for him with Kelce and Kittle on the slate. Most will take either of those guys or pay down at the position. He makes the list from a game theory perspective but I don’t know that’ll I’ll be a buyer on him this week. The WFT defense’s only green spot on the matchup chart (besides QB rushing) is at TE, where Landon Collins often struggles in coverage. If Dalton Schultz isn’t asked to stay on the line as an extra pass blocker, perhaps he can find some room to put up fantasy points this week. He’s been able to score well in other TE friendly matchups this year, against Atlanta and Cleveland. Rob Gronkowski has been volatile so far this year and as the Bucs WRs try to gut it out throw injury he was utilized heavily last week. If Evans and Godwin continue to play at less than 100% the Bucs could use him as the focal point against a weak interior coverage unit for the Raiders. The only good TE the Raiders played this year was Kelce and he ripped them up for 108 yards and a TD on 8 catches.

Ian Thomas is facing the team that has the worst time stopping TEs. Perhaps the week off gave the Saints time to correct this issue so I won’t go heavy on here just because the matchup looks great on paper, but if needing to get some salary relief, Thomas is one of the places I will look. David Njoku is facing a defense allowing 9 targets per game to the TE position and a modest 2.8 points per game boost to the position. He’s been buried by injuries and depth chart preferences for the past two years but looks like a decent TD dependent punt option on a week where TE gets tough below $4k. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

• BEST BETS: Bills, Washington FT
• PIVOTS: 49ers, Patriots
• PUNTS: None (Washington)

Who are we kidding here? If we have the salary to do it, we’re starting whichever DST faces the Jets. This week, the Bills DST gets that honor. One of the better DL versus OL match-ups on the slate will be the Washington DST going against the depleted Dallas line. That OL is going to be a problem for the Cowboys moving forward, as is not having Dak back there to bail them out. The 49ers DST and Patriots DST are likely to dominate the game between them. Belichick will take away Kittle and make the young cast of WRs beat their great coverage scheme and the 49ers will shut down the run and force the Patriots to complete passes. This should be a low scoring game with the Patriots making Jimmy G’s return to Foxborough miserable while the 49ers capitalize on any mistakes Cam makes.

FINAL THOUGHTS

After researching this slate, it appears we have plenty of value plays that will allow us to cram in the expensive stacks or use 3 bell-cow RBs in our lines. I still have hours more research to do before I’m happy with how my lines look. This is only my first cut of the slate, which is my deepest, but I do not read anyone else’s work until I’m done writing this (don’t want any influence) so I’m looking forward to checking out some articles and Twitter posts from other analysts as well as keeping tabs on the beat writer reports and injury news. These are the final pieces that help shape my player pool and lineups. Best of luck to us all this week, and thanks for reading!