Fantasy Football WR Advanced Metrics Report: Week 7

Jamison Crowder (New York Jets) – Despite a woeful quarterback situation, Jamison Crowder has been an elite fantasy option. He’s topped double-digit targets in all four of his games, which is doubly impressive when a significant portion of those targets have come via Joe Flacco. Crowder missed two games but when he has been on the field, he has been one of the most involved wide receivers in football. When active Crowder is playing over 90% of the team’s snaps and leads all NFL receivers with a 20.7 Hog Rate, which ranks targets per snap on a per-game basis. This kind of rate isn’t sustainable, especially for a winless team, but keep plugging in Crowder has a productive WR2 while the getting is good. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Green Bay Packers) – There’s a strong correlation between air yards and fantasy success. Some of the league’s premier deep threats rank very highly in fantasy points per game. FantasyData’s Average Target Distance measures how far downfield a player is before he is targeted and there is also a strong correlation. Four of fantasy football’s top 13 PPR scorers rank highly in average target distance, but no one ranks as high as Green Bay’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who leads the league in that category as well as air yards per reception. The volume hasn’t always been there but MVS has a lot of sleeper appeal in Week 7 facing a Houston secondary that has been reeling over the past three weeks.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pittsburgh Steelers) – It has been a rather forgettable year for Juju Smith-Schuster, who not that long ago was a top-10 dynasty pick. Smith-Schuster is barely inside the top-40 of PPR scoring and is on pace to catch just 74 balls for 621 yards–not exactly standout numbers for an elite wide receiver in a contract year. But maybe when teams start accounting for Chase Claypool Smith-Schuster can rebound. Smith-Schuster has accumulated a perfect True Catch Rate by hauling in all 23 catchable targets this season. His TD rate is solid, so if Smith-Schuster can just become a little more involved, he can still re-establish WR2 value moving forward.

Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) – Despite finally seeing a decent performance out of A.J. Green, Green may only be the third-best wideout on his own team. Second-round rookie Tee Higgins has played quite well, snagging 22-of-38 targets, including the fifth-most contested targets (12) in football. Higgins also has yet to be credited with a drop. In terms of all regular wideouts who have yet to commit a drop, Higgins’s 38 targets rank him as the most heavily-targeted receiver in football without a drop. 

Demarcus Robinson (Kansas City Chiefs) – With Sammy Watkins out with a hamstring injury, Demarcus Robinson played a team-high 69 snaps and led the Chiefs’ receiving corps with 6 targets. Robinson reeled in five of those passes for 69 yards and should be counted on to stay on the field as the club’s main slot receiver. But Robinson has very little upside and has been one of the least effective receivers in football. Not only does Robinson rank 89th out of 90 wideouts in yards per route run, but he also has an NFL-worst 19% drop rate. Desperate fantasy owners may see those snap numbers and think Robinson can be a decent bye-week replacement but his lack of efficiency is more likely to get him benched. 

Keelan Cole (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Are you surprised to learn that Keelan Cole enters Week 7 as the WR21 in PPR formats? Cole has earned 5-plus targets in every Jaguars’ game and actually leads the club’s receiving corps with 292 snaps. These aren’t hollow stats either, as Cole is making the most of his increased playing time. Cole ranks 7th among all wide receivers in target separation, which measures a receiver’s average yards of separation distance from the closest defense back at the moment the pass target arrives. This metric tells us what players excel at getting open, and the players ahead of Cole include elite fantasy options like Davante Adams, Tyler Lockett, and Robby Anderson. Cole is still widely available on waiver wires but is poised to continue to be an undervalued fantasy asset down the stretch. 

David Moore (Seattle Seahawks) – In terms of pure points per opportunity, David Moore is up there with the elite players in the league–he’s just not getting enough targets as Seattle’s fourth or fifth option. Moore ranks fourth among all NFL wideouts in fantasy points per target but he has only seen 14 in Seattle’s five games. Moore isn’t even on the field for half of the Seahawks’ snaps, but he’s still managed to put up 189 air yards and see four red-zone targets. Moore is a decent boom-or-bust option in larger leagues as a bye-week replacement but that value may be short-lived if Peter Carroll and company were to sign Antonio Brown.