5 (Early) Sleepers to Target at Running Back

Ryquell Armstead, Jacksonville Jaguars 

Leonard Fournette’s resume includes two top-nine finishes in PPR scoring during the past three seasons (RB7-2019/RB9-2017). It also contains a track record of 12 games that were missed due to injuries (hamstring/quad/neck) and several suspensions. Fournette was entrusted with a tremendous workload in 2019 as he was allotted the league’s seventh-highest number of rushing attempts (265), while also finishing fourth among backs in targets (100). This propelled him to seventh in rushing yards (1,152/76.8 per game), and fifth in both receptions (76), and receiving yards (522). 

Fournette can conceivably operate as the team’s primary back this season, even though his targets are going to decline. But recent offseason developments have become even more critical when assessing his value to Jacksonville and for potential owners. If the Jaguar’s efforts to trade him did not provide an indication of their indifference toward retaining Fournette, then the team’s decision to decline his fifth-year option supplies sufficient evidence that he could be removed from feature-back responsibilities at any time. This diminishes his stock while presenting complications in determining your commitment to the former first-round pick during 2020. However, it also delivers an opportunity to seize Armstead while you still can.

One cut and 💨💨 💨@track_chaser breaks off a 32-yard run.#ATLvsJAX | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/PCfwRmpRMJ

— #DUUUVAL (@Jaguars) August 29, 2019

 Several Jaguars would experience an expanded touch total if Fournette is no longer stockpiling touches. But the 23-year-old Armstead would become the prime candidate for lead back responsibilities. His involvement was limited as a rookie in 2019 (35 attempts/108 rushing yards/24 targets). This included a 5.3 yards per carry average on eight attempts in Week 4, while he also collected all five of his targets for 65 yards in Week 9. However, the combination of his aggressive running style and favorable size (5′ 11″, 220 pounds) should induce the Jaguars to supply Armstead with a sizable role if Fournette is jettisoned. 

But despite Armstead’s potential to suddenly attain a massive workload at any point, he remains available until round 16 (ADP 181) in the majority of drafts. That places him among a large collection of uninspiring options. Chris Thompson would confiscate the largest share of targets among Jaguar running backs if Fournette is eventually playing elsewhere. But that would still present Armstead with an appealing number of rushing attempts. That is enormous incentive to target Armstead, whose prospects for an immediate surge in value have yet to inspire the majority of owners. But the addition of this second-year back could become extremely profitable during the season.

Chris Thompson, Jacksonville Jaguars 

The rationale for a potential Fournette departure should also provide your motivation to pursue the receiving skills of Thompson. His arrival has virtually guaranteed that Fournette will cede a sizable percentage of the 100 targets that he collected in 2019, even if he remains with the Jaguars. Thompson’s positive relationship with new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden – who was Thompson’s head coach from 2014 through Week 5 of 2019 – provides an indication that the former Redskin should remain highly involved as a pass-catching weapon with Jacksonville.  

Thompson’s usage and proficiency as a receiver have been consistent throughout his career. He has collected 54+ targets during each of his last four seasons while finishing among the top nine backs in targets per game for three straight years (2017-2019). He also accomplished that amid multiple health issues that sidelined him for 17 games during his last three seasons. Otherwise, his season averages as a pass-catcher since 2016 would be even more impressive (43 receptions/376 yards).   

Thompson was unavailable during Washington’s last six contests in 2017 (fractured fibula), which remains among the more devastating injuries that he has endured. He had been leading all backs in receiving yards when the problem emerged (494), and was also tied for fifth in targets (53/5.9) and ninth in receptions (38). Thompson was also third among backs in targets during 2019 (35/7.0 per game) before a lingering toe issue emerged in Week 6. He returned in Week 13 and still finished ninth at his position in targets per game. 

His inability to play in 16 games since 2016 does present a reason for concern when you are considering whether to invest in Thompson. However, his track record of effectiveness when he does achieve sustained health should compel you to entrust him as a sleeper option. He will retain a consistent role as a pass-catching outlet for Gardner Minshew and it is reasonable to expect a dearth of positive game scripts for the talent-challenged Jaguars.  

Second-round pick Laviska Shenault possesses the versatility to be used in multiple formations. But Thompson should not encounter formidable competition for targets from the team’s other backfield components. Armstead collected just 14 of 24 targets as a newcomer, while unproven Devine Ozigbo was limited to 12 touches during his 2019 rookie season.  

That will result in receiving numbers that easily transcend the current lack of interest in Thompson, as 69 backs are being selecting prior to his egregious ADP (257). His ability to perform in 16 games can be questioned, but his acumen as a productive pass catcher cannot.  

Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins  

Breida secured his place on San Francisco’s roster as an undrafted free agent in 2017, then proceeded to commandeer backup responsibilities behind Carlos Hyde. He capitalized on a 28% snap count by accruing 645 total yards on 126 touches, including 465 yards on the ground. Breida’s production ignited at the onset of 2018, as he was tied with Ezekiel Elliott for the league lead in rushing after Week 3 (274 yards), while averaging a whopping 8.6 yards per carry. He remained 10th overall until Week 11 (632 yards/5.6 per carry), but a protracted ankle injury circumvented his momentum. He still accumulated 814 yards during his 14 matchups, while finishing sixth with 10 runs of 20+ yards. This established his ability to function as an effective back with big-play capabilities. But even though his yardage total also paced the 49ers, it did not dissuade the team from adding Tevin Coleman during the offseason. 

That created an additional layer of congestion in a backfield that contained Breida, Coleman, Raheem Mostert, Jerrick McKinnon, and Jeff Wilson. Breida still remained productive amid the committee structure from Weeks 1-9 while leading San Francisco in rushing yards (524). However, a lingering ankle issue limited him to just four matchups, 24 attempts, and 99 yards from Weeks 10-17. While it initially appeared that Breida would be involved in another overcrowded backfield this season, Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch traded him to Miami in late April. 

i know i said it before but i think @mattbreida is the reincarnation of 2011/2012 reggie bush. and i believe he will be the perfect lightning to jordan howard’s thunder. pic.twitter.com/m6WYug9Pdf

— josh houtz (@houtz) May 20, 2020

This presents the opportunity for Breida to outperform his current ADP of 143. He will be sharing touches with Jordan Howard, who finished second in rushing yards as a rookie (1,313). Howard’s yardage total has steadily declined in each of the last three years (1,122/935/525), but he now has a chance to reverse that unwanted trend if he operates as the Dolphins’ early-down rusher. However, Breida should remain highly involved while instilling an explosive presence that was completely nonexistent in Miami’s backfield last season. The Dolphins finished dead last in rushing (72.3 yards per game), while Patrick Laird (2.7) and Kalen Ballage (1.8) manufactured woeful yard per carry averages. 

Breida can easily eclipse his current career-best snap count percentage (34%). But it is essential that he evade another lingering health issue. That is the only obstacle that would impede him from securing a more predictable role than he experienced in San Francisco. He has the ability to deliver favorable yardage totals if that occurs, which is your enticement to target him before round 13.      

Duke Johnson, Houston Texans

Johnson now enters his sixth professional season in a career that has blended encouraging efficiency with bewildering limitations in his usage. Johnson has yet to exceed a 53% snap count percentage since being drafted by Cleveland in 2015, while he has only surpassed 50% twice during that span. Johnson’s career-best numbers were generated in 2017 when he collected 74 of his 93 targets, and generated 693 yards as a receiver. This prowess as a pass-catcher vaulted Johnson to RB11 in PPR scoring during 2017. He also finished sixth among all backs in points per opportunity (1.06). 

That also represented the conclusion of a three-year span in which he accumulated 241 targets (80 per season), 188 receptions (63 per season), and 1,741 receiving yards (580 per season). Even though it is justifiable to question Bill O’Brien’s deployment of Johnson during his first year with Houston, the fifth-year back still finished 15th in targets (62) 16th in receptions (44), and 13th in receiving yards (410).

On 3rd & 18, @DeshaunWatson to Duke Johnson for the first down! #WeAreTexans

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Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/g2IubuwcCg pic.twitter.com/w5HpUxtdGG

— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2020

Johnson also finished sixth at his position in third-down fantasy points (32.6) and appeared to provide a noticeable burst that was otherwise missing from Houston’s backfield in 2019. Unfortunately, O’Brien constrained his usage to just 5.2 attempts per game. While that was sufficient for Johnson to accumulate a career-best 410 yards, he appeared capable of supplying substantial yardage totals if he had been unbridled as a rusher during the year. O’Brien’s reluctance to unleash Johnson with an increased workload was baffling. But the current state of Houston’s backfield has placed him in a position to generate production that surpasses the expectations of a player with a 12th round ADP.     

During Johnson’s first year as a Texan, he was deployed on 48% of Houston’s snaps, while Carlos Hyde attained a percentage of 49.5%. Hyde accumulated career highs in rushing attempts (245) and rushing yards (1,070). But he has been discarded after O’Brien’s infamous decision to add David Johnson and his guaranteed contract via trade. While the former Cardinal will be given an opportunity to perform as the lead back, ineffectiveness or injury could suddenly thrust Duke Johnson into an expanded role. 

Duke Johnson has the @HoustonTexans out to the 50-yard line. #WeAreTexans

📺: #BUFvsHOU on ESPN/ABC
📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app
Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/g2IubuwcCg pic.twitter.com/XjbYXbIy2b

— NFL (@NFL) January 4, 2020

He has proven that he can perform effectively as a receiver, and still possesses the potential to assemble favorable yardage totals as a rusher. That should inspire you to invest in his ability to deliver high-quality production without having to deploy an early or mid-round pick.     

Latavius Murray, New Orleans Saints  

As Alvin Kamara continues to commandeer a mid-first-round ADP, it might be helpful to remember that New Orleans has an extremely capable RB2 who can perform proficiently whenever he is entrusted with the ball. Last season, Murray played on 41% of the Saints’ offensive snaps, generated 637 yards and four touchdowns on 146 attempts, and collected 34 of his 43 targets for 235 yards as a receiver. He also performed with enough efficiency to finish ninth among backs in Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), and 13th in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement). 

However, the primary appeal of selecting Murray involves his enormous potential for production if he suddenly ascends into responsibilities as New Orleans’ lead back. The former 1,000-yard rusher operated in that capacity while Kamara dealt with a prolonged ankle problem. In the three games that Murray received 17+ rushing attempts, he generated 282 yards while averaging 94 per game. During the two-game absence of Kamara, Murray eclipsed 100 yards in both contests (119/102), while finishing second in rushing with 221 yards (4.6 per attempt). Murray also led all backs in targets (18) and receptions (14) during that sequence.

Murray Without Kamara

New Orleans finished ninth in total offense last season (374 yards per game), as the Saints withstood the injury to Kamara and an extended absence of Drew Brees (5 games). Several more components were added during the offseason which will bolster what remains a highly-potent attack. But there were no modifications to the team’s depth chart at running back, which contains Kamara, Murray, and Dwayne Washington.  

The Saints also ranked 19th in run play percentage last season (40.6%). However, they also targeted their backs with the league’s second-highest frequency (28.6%). Sean Payton’s usage of the position will keep Murray involved on a weekly basis even if Kamara is healthy. Murray also averaged 7 attempts/2 targets in the 14 games that Kamara joined him in the lineup, while Kamara averaged 12.2 attempts and 6.9 targets per game during his matchups.   

Owners are abstaining from Murray with the same diligence as other players that have been discussed in this article. He is currently being drafted in the 11th round after 44 other running backs have been selected (ADP 129). This supplies you with the prospects of seizing a player who delivers significant upside while still waiting until double-digit rounds to secure him.