Fantasy Football Draft Primer 2020

Use a Cheat Sheet or a Rankings List

If you’re a seasoned player and can build your own projections, rankings, and tiers – do it and stick to them! If you’re not quite to that point, find rankings and projections you can rely on. You can start with Fantasy Data’s Rankings or use Fantasy Data’s Projections to build your own cheat sheet. It is also advisable to look at multiple analysts’ rankings as you go through your process. This is valuable because you can see different perspectives on a player. Not all of your league mates will be using the same cheat sheet or have the same opinions, so this is a way to calibrate a range of value for each player. For the players you like, look at the higher end of the range to see where you should probably take that guy if you want to have the best chance at landing them. You can also begin to plot out where you will need to take your value picks.

Do Some Research

Take a look at your cheat sheet or rankings list and try to understand why players are ranked where they are. If you don’t understand why someone is ranked so high or seems too low, get online and start Googling or doing Twitter searches to find out if you agree with the ranking. Do the same with any player or team you are unfamiliar with. I have a list of beat writers for all 32 teams pinned to my Twitter profile that can be an excellent resource. You can search the list by typing in the player name followed by a space and then list:majesstik1/ with the team abbreviation after the forward-slash. As you begin to fill in the blanks for each player you need to, then you will start to get a better idea of who you think is getting drafted too high, or too low. 

Have an Opinion, but Be Adaptable

Once you’ve completed some research you should have a pretty good idea of how you feel about certain players, and teams, and what some of your favorite targets might be. As you form your opinions, don’t allow yourself to get tied down by them. Keep your opinions loose enough that when someone with a differing opinion or additional information you hadn’t considered before shares it, then you can decide for yourself which opinion (yours or theirs) is more useful and move forward in that way. Try to be a witness to any cognitive biases you have and remain objective as you consume additional information and ultimately end up with your final opinions for your draft(s).

Be Like Water

Let’s say the draft is moving along but all our targets are getting sniped before out picks. If this occurs, we’ll need to tap into our inner Bruce Lee and allow ourselves to “Be like water making its way through cracks. Do not be assertive, but adjust to the object, and you shall find a way around or through it. If nothing within you stays rigid, outward things will disclose themselves.” Let us not get upset if the draft doesn’t flow our way, instead realize we thought about what we would do in this worst-case scenario well ahead of time. If we planned to go RB heavy up front but none of the backs we like are falling to our slots, then take an elite WR or TE and see how the next pick goes. Heck, maybe consider taking Lamar Jackson in Rd3 as your top “RB”. If the draft continues to leave us without our top targets, then we have to take the best available players and not fall into taking Mark Ingram in the 4th round because we are desperate for an RB. At some point, the RBs will fall our way, and if that means we have to take 8 of them from round 5 on, then so be it. Perhaps we can evaluate rosters at the end of the draft and see if we can make a trade with another owner for an RB. The key is to be a witness to yourself as you draft. Ask yourself if the pick makes sense before you call it out or push the draft button. If it doesn’t, then do what does make sense.

Part 2: Economic Approach

Understanding Fantasy Economics

Fantasy drafts abide by basic economic concepts like supply and demand of an asset, alternative uses for scarce resources, as well as opportunity cost. Each player is an asset of human capital and is considered a scarce resource (there’s only one of each player available per draft) and we must decide at what cost we are willing to select one asset over another. Let’s say RB over WR for example, or Kenyan Drake over Aaron Jones. The concept of supply and demand is going to force less valuable assets up the board due to scarcity, mainly at the RB position. With so few alpha-backs or majority-share leaders in a running-back committee, the top tier RB assets will be in high demand and will be gone before the back end of the second round in a 12 team league. Thus, we must make important decisions early on that will affect the rest of our draft. Would we rather take an elite WR1 early (ie. Michael Thomas or Davantae Adams), or do we forgo the elite WR1 and take a second-tier RB (ie. Mixon or Chubb) in the back end of round 1? If we decide on the WR, then what are our chances of making up a productive RB group in the following rounds? Due to this scarcity, I would be more inclined to let the elite WRs go and stock up on the RBs early, then go after WRs later in the draft, as this is an inherently larger pool to choose from.

Watch the Draft Board

As we are navigating our way through our drafts, we need to anticipate position runs as the draft progresses. This can give us an edge. This idea can be more successful the closer we are to either side of the “turns” in a snake style draft. If there are two teams with two picks between us and our next pick, and both have already drafted a TE or two, we can take that calculated risk that we can hold off on a TE and take another player we’re eyeing instead. Positional runs typically occur with the “onesie” positions. In some cases, you might want to be ahead of the run and get a player from the first tier of that onesie position. If our draft board has a group of players we’re comfortable with waiting to see who makes it back around to us at our next pick, we can grab that QB ahead of the 2 guys after us who might not have one yet and trust we’ll probably see one of the players in that group we passed on come back to our next pick. If we’re at the ends of a snake draft, it’s usually better to be the one who starts a run, rather than getting caught at the tail-end of one – unless you’re targeting your cut-off.

Have “Cut-offs”

Cut-offs are the last player at a position you are willing to take as your starter and usually applies to the onesie positions. As the “wait on QB” drum has gotten louder over the years, it becomes easier to use this strategy at that position. This year my QB1 cut-off looks like it’ll be either Danny Dimes or Big Ben. Both of these guys have 11th round ADP at the moment and allow us to use our earlier picks to build an RB & WR group we can feel confident in. In Best Ball, I might take both of these guys with consecutive picks as a QB1 combo play, since we can’t play waivers in Best Ball. TE is another of the “onesie” positions that we can use this strategy with. Jack Doyle is falling into the 13th round area and has TE1 potential playing on a team that highlights the TE position, with a QB that has historically relied on them. If we’re punting at both QB and TE, then we can grab the aforementioned QB combo, Doyle, then a guy like Ian Thomas or Greg Olsen as a back-up TE (if you need one) all in the late rounds of our drafts. 

Wait on Selecting a DST, IDPs, or Kicker

In redraft leagues where you’re not forced to take a K, DST, or IDP to complete draft requirements imposed by the league rules or website constraints, then don’t take them! This strategy is stronger the earlier you have to draft. Instead, take extra offensive players that may increase in value with an injury or suspension ahead of the player we took, or after roster cuts pave the way. This could land us a diamond for our rosters, or we can use this new value as leverage in trades and try to produce a moderate upgrade to a position by throwing out a bunch of 2 for 1 trade proposals. It also gives us a buffer from preseason injuries in the event we are the one losing a starter. If nothing transpires to create value from this, simply wait until just before waivers lock for the week and drop a player to pick up a DST/K/IDP. This way we’ll have everything to field a starting line-up for week 1 and the player we drop can’t easily be scooped up by a needy league-mate.

Part 3: Create a Successful Plan

It may sound overzealous, but we can easily jot down our opinions into a “Draft Plan” by either writing out a paragraph for each position or for how you want to approach each round – or both. An example of a Draft Plan is below and can be easily rewritten with your opinions stated. The way I like to do this is to break out each position and give myself a guide of how many players I like at the position and where they are going relative to consensus ADP. As our draft goes along we can reference our plan to stay focused on where key opportunities may arise. Whether that’s snatching up one of the better QBs a round before you planned to because they’ve already fallen too far, or keeping tabs on that late-round sleeper you are targeting so you know to keep drafting around that idea for later. One way to do this is to highlight them in your draft plan or on your draft board and note what round you will likely be able to draft them. Applying this concept, we can map out opportunity cost earlier in the draft and decide when to target the “onesie” positions like QB and TE. 

EXAMPLE DRAFT PLAN:

QB – The 2 “Elite QB1” (Mahomes and Jackson) will most likely go higher than I’m willing to spend (Rd3-4). There are 3 “Very Good QB1” (Watson, Wilson, Prescott) after the 2 Elites that I’ll consider if one of them falls to Rd8-9 and make sense per the board. Otherwise, there is a surplus of “Solid or Fringe QB1” that can be had from rounds 11+. The preferred strategy would be to take a QB in Rd11.

RB – There are 6 “Alpha Backs” on the board (CMC, Saq, Zeke, Cook, Henry, Lev), with Bell falling into Rd4 at the moment. If drafting with an early Rd4 pick, you can squeeze a WR in with one of the first three picks and take Bell as an RB2 or 3. There are 8 “Strong RBBC or Dual Back Leaders” (Kamara, Mixon, Jones, Conner, Drake, Chubb, Fournette, Jacobs) that are going in Rd1-2 with Conner falling into Rd4. If the board pushes you to WRs early, Conner and Bell in Rd3 & 4 present value. There are 10 “RBBC Leaders” that are not as strong as the previous group but are either talented or in a good situation (Ekeler, MG3, Miles, David Johnson, Mostert, Carson, Montgomery, Gurley, Guice, Howard) and can be drafted in the range of Rd2-8. By the end of Rd8, I would prefer to have at least one from each group and 4 RBs in total. The remainder of the RB landscape is choosing between a receiving back with a diminished ceiling and/or low floor, or we’re looking at guys in a crowd that may emerge as a great pick with injuries ahead of them or due to their own determination to take over a larger role in their offense. There are also a handful of TD vultures that could be good for a game or two per season. Some late round RBs to consider will be Lat Murray, Mattison, Zack moss, Justin Jackson, Edmonds, and McKinnon even later. All have the potential for workhorse roles if injury strikes ahead of them. 

WR – There are 5 “Elite WR1” (Thomas, Adams, Hill, Julio, Nuk) typically going in the top 20. After the 6 Elite WR1 are gone there are 9 more “Solid WR1” …and so on….

TE – There are 2 “Elite TE1” (Kelce and Kittle) that are usually going in Rd2. There are 3 “Nearly Elite TE1” (Andrews, Ertz, Waller) going in Rd3-5. …and so on…

DST – If you don’t have to draft one, then don’t. Otherwise, take this position with your last pick.

* Ideal start with the #1 pick: CMC, Fournette, MG3, Woods, Ertz

* Ideal start with the #2 pick: …and so on…

Summary

The sooner you start your player research, the better you will be able to strengthen your psychological approach to each player and how you wish to approach your draft(s). Work on the mental reps early in the process and refine your opinions for as long as you can. Determine what economic approach you wish to abide. Will you be taking those scarce resources (RBs) early, possibly even reaching a little to do it, or will you find another way to use your buying power (picks/auction dollars)? Create a plan for the best and worst-case scenarios so you know what you should do in the moment. By writing out a plan like this you will stay focused on where players are normally going, where you want to take positions or players you like, and will start to see value picks emerge when you are drafting. Sharpen your mind and your strategy and you will be fine. Best of luck to you this year and happy 2020 fantasy season!