Fading Players in 2021
As much as we love sleepers and breakouts, it’s important to make a list of players to consider fading in fantasy baseball leagues. For some, including myself, we find players that we won’t draft given their ADP or at all. For this article, we’ll look at one player at each position to consider fading. It’s easier to find sleepers and breakouts than finding players to fade. We’ll use data and recent information to analyze one player to consider fading at each position. It doesn’t mean that we’re never drafting these guys, but they stand out with risky profiles and questionable playing time.
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Catcher – Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees
NFBC ADP: 165.98
In two catcher leagues, it’s difficult to fade too many catchers given the lack of catchers receiving full-time playing time. For one catcher leagues, it’s easier to consider fading this catcher. Gary Sanchez recorded his lowest batting average (.147) in the past five seasons and his strikeout rate (36%) ballooned to a career-high as well. However, the walk rate finished at 10.1% slightly above his career 9.6% walk rate. In terms of counting stats, Sanchez totaled ten home runs, 19 runs, and 24 RBI in 178 plate appearances.
So why did Sanchez’s batting average tank? Likely due to the increased strikeout rate and career-worst .159 BABIP. However, Sanchez isn’t a high BABIP guy and hovers at a .256 BABIP for his career. When looking at plate discipline, most of his plate discipline metrics remained similar and nothing too glaring stands out. In 2020, he lowered his chase rate from a 35.3% O-Swing% in 2019 to 31.5% in 2020. Meanwhile, his contact rate dropped to 68.4% compared to a career 71.6% Contact%. However, Sanchez’s contact rate dropped almost two percent from 2019. I expected to see the chase rate increase and contact rate significantly decrease, but maybe he struggled with timing and rhythm during the shortened season.
We can see in the rolling wOBA graph above that he experiences some extreme highs and lows. With the struggles for Gary Sanchez, his ADP dropped quite a bit to pick 166 in February. That said, he’s one of the rare power-hitting catchers that recorded a 17.4% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate in 2020. Sanchez boasts the elite raw power that ranks highly. The BAT X projects Sanchez for 25 home runs, 52 runs, 58 RBI, and one steal with a .228 batting average in 376 plate appearances. All of the projection systems seem to bake in missed games. It’s difficult to stomach the low batting average for Sanchez, although I have a feeling he bounces back slightly in 2021.
1B – Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, New York Mets
NFBC ADP: 120.91
With all of the Mets additions in Francisco Lindor, Jonathan Villar, Kevin Pillar, and Albert Almora Jr., it muddies up the playing time for Dominic Smith. According to Roster Resource, Smith projects to bat 6th and currently not a platoon bat. That said, Smith is a solid hitter who totaled ten home runs, 27 runs, and 42 RBI with a triple slash of .316/.377/.616. He’s a bat-first player that performs below league average in terms of defensive WAR. Although the projections look favorable, it feels like the Mets keep adding depth given the lack of the National League designated hitter at this point.
The BAT X projects Dominic Smith for 23 home runs, 74 runs, 78 RBI, and two steals with a .258 batting average. If we have an NL DH, then that helps someone like Dominic Smith. That’s not bad, but his ADP of 120 feels a bit rich. When considering other first basemen, Eric Hosmer and Josh Bell should compile similar or more counting stats that go about 20 plus picks later. Smith can hit, but he fits more of a DH role with first base locked up.
1B – Jared Walsh, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
NFBC ADP: 201.16
In February, Jared Walsh has an NFBC ADP inside the top-200 picks. It feels like a bit of an overreaction to his 2020 season where Walsh hit nine home runs with a .293 batting average in 108 plate appearances. He’s a bit of an older guy at age 27 that made his major league debut in 2019 where he hit one home run and a .203 batting average in 87 plate appearances. Sure he could provide 20 home run power, but he’s not someone to actively target in drafts, especially since he likely platoons at first with the aging veteran in Albert Pujols.
2B – Cavan Biggio, 2B/3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays
NFBC ADP: 63.74
Although Cavan Biggio has positional eligibility, he’s worrisome at his ADP given the poor batting average. Interestingly, Biggio is perfect in stolen bases with 20 out of 20 in 2019 and 2020. However, in the minors in 2018 and 2019, Biggio successfully stole 25 out of 34 bases. Not sure if Biggio was smarter on the base paths or put more of an emphasis on that, but he’s perfect in his MLB career. He possesses those money OBP skills with a career 16.1% walk rate and .368 OBP. However, in batting average leagues, Biggio’s ADP is a bit rich even though he projects for 20 plus home runs and double-digit steals.
Let’s note a couple of plate discipline metrics that stand out. In his career, Biggio has a 15.9% O-Swing% compared to the league average of 30.6% in 2020. He also swings about ten percent less than the league average, which shows he’s a bit too patient. If Biggio uses a more aggressive approach, then it might help him out. However, he’s already using a pull-heavy (48.5%), fly ball (44.5%) approach. That’s probably where the power comes from since Biggio’s Statcast metrics rank below average. He’s better suited for OBP leagues, but don’t expect much batting average. The BAT X projects him for 21 home runs and 11 steals with 85 runs and 68 RBI with a .236 batting average. If you’re targeting second basemen in this range, snag Brandon Lowe about ten picks later.
SS – Javier Baez, SS, Chicago Cubs
NFBC ADP: 73.02
We have one of the players in Javier Baez that complained about the lack of in-game video in 2020, which appeared to impact his performance. Baez consistently provided solid power with double-digit steals from 2016-2019. He’s always displayed the low walk and high strikeout rates, which lent itself to some risk yet he boasted a .280 batting average during those four seasons. Then in 2020, Baez struggled with a .203 batting average with eight home runs and three steals in 235 plate appearances. Interestingly, Baez lowered his chase rate in 2020 with a 40.6% O-Swing% compared to 44.1% in 2019. However, Baez made less contact with a 63.8% Contact% compared to a career 67% Contact%. With such a loaded shortstop position, consider fading Javier Baez even if he might bounce back in 2021.
3B – Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
NFBC ADP: 40.39
Now that the Rockies traded Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals, that’s a drastic ballpark change, particularly in the BABIP and batting average department. If we regress Arenado’s batting average and counting stats since the Cardinals’ home ballpark ranks below average in home runs and wOBA, then he’s closer to Max Muncy, Eugenio Suarez, and Matt Chapman who all go 40 plus picks later. Lower the expectations on Arenado heading into the 2021 season.
OF – Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox
NFBC ADP: 36.46
As the 10th outfielder off the board, I’m a bit worried about Luis Robert at pick 36 in February. In 2020, Robert recorded the 4th highest chase rate with a 43.1% O-Swing% compared to 30.6% league average. He also struggled with making contact with his 61.4% Contact% that ranked 3rd worst amongst qualified hitters. That’s near Adalberto Mondesi plate discipline metrics, but Robert projects as having above-average to plus-plus power. He’s still young, so he could improve, but I prefer to wait and see or take my risks a bit later in drafts. We’ll note that Robert holds that 25 home run and 25 steal potential, but it may come with a .250 batting average or lower.
SP – Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves
NFBC ADP: 73
On the surface, it appears that Max Fried overperformed with a 2.25 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, and 1.09 WHIP. It’s partly due to his .268 BABIP and 82% LOB% compared to his career .321 BABIP and 76.7% LOB%. Fried was solid in 2019 with a 4.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 6.7% walk rate. I’d expect Fried to post a WHIP above 1.30 since 2020 looks like an outlier.
Even Fried’s 2.97 xERA looked solid due to him limiting the quality of contact in 2020 per Baseball Savant. However, that’s likely unsustainable when looking at past seasons. Fried’s curveball and slider performed well with a double-digit swinging-strike rate that limited the quality of contact. His curve resulted in a .219 wOBA and his slider resulted in a .259 wOBA. I prefer grabbing an elite closer or Kyle Hendricks and Zack Wheeler in this ADP range.
Drew Smyly, SP, Atlanta Braves
NFBC ADP: 229.73
I promise this isn’t an anti-Atlanta Braves site, but Drew Smyly is worrisome given the extremely small sample. In 2020, Smyly recorded a 3.42 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 37.8% strikeout rate, and 8.1% walk rate in 26.1 innings. Smyly worked up to 5 and 5.1 innings in his final two starts, so he barely went deep into games in 2020. Even though Smyly finished with a 2.01 FIP and 2.56 xFIP, it’s difficult to imagine that sustains over a full season. He battled injuries over the past few seasons, and I don’t think he’ll receive a heavy workload or work deep into games.
ATC projects Smyly for a 4.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, a 10.52 K/9, and 3.36 BB/9 in 116 innings pitched. Sure, Smyly should provide strikeouts, but don’t expect many wins or quality starts and he’ll likely hurt in the ERA department. Smyly won’t provide the quality of innings nor the quantity. Instead, look at Jordan Montgomery in this range or even Freddy Peralta later in drafts.
RP – Brad Hand, RP, Washington Nationals
NFBC ADP: 116.46
After concerns with Brad Hand, he held his own in 2020 yet likely overperformed. Hand recorded a perfect 16 saves with a 2.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP with a 33.7% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate. He reached career bests in ERA, WHIP, and walk rate in the shortened 2020 season. Oddly, Hand was extremely lucky with his 57.9% LOB% and .255 BABIP compared to his career .287 BABIP and 74.3% LOB%. Often we see high LOB% when pitchers record a low ERA, but Hand appears like an outlier.
Even Hand’s 10.5% swinging-strike rate in 2020 typically finished above 13% over the previous three seasons. Even his quality of contact with a .213 wOBA and .235 xwOBA (96th percentile) stands out with his career .317 wOBA and .321 xwOBA in the Statcast era. Hand’s a hard pass for me even though the closer market appears scarier than ever. Or in trading leagues, be ready to ship him off your squad at some point. He’s not the elite closer in years past.
