Five Breakout Third Basemen for 2024 Fantasy Baseball
Third base has been one of the shallower positions in recent years, with only a few elite options and not much production outside of the top 12 at the position. This doesn’t look to be the case anymore, with the position looking like one of the deepest for 2024. If you miss out on Jose Ramirez, Austin Riley, or Rafael Devers in the early rounds, there is no shortage of players to fall back on in the middle and late rounds of drafts. Here are five third basemen who I expect to break out in 2024.
*Note: The ADP is FantasyPros’ consensus, not including ESPN due to their ADPs being very off at the moment.
Royce Lewis, Twins (ADP: 55.3, 3B 7)
- 2023 stats: 58 G / 36 R / 15 HR / 52 RBI / 6 SB / .309 AVG / .372 OBP / .548 SLG
Royce Lewis has been waiting for years to show off his potential, and he finally got the chance to do so in 2023. His career has been plagued by injuries ever since being drafted first overall in 2017, most notably tearing his ACL on two separate occasions. A healthy Lewis crushed the baseball, hitting 15 home runs and totaling 52 RBI in just 58 games. His max exit velocity of 114 mph placed him in the top 10 percent of the league, and his average exit velocity, xSLG, and barrel rate were also all well above average. His xBA of .265 suggests he may have gotten lucky to hit over .300, but either way, he is clearly a very good hitter. He even hit four additional home runs in the playoffs that aren’t shown in his 2023 stat line. A realistic 2024 outlook could see him bat .280 with 30+ home runs and 15 stolen bases, with the upside for an even higher average and more home runs if his 2023 pace wasn’t a fluke. His injury risk is his biggest flaw, so you are betting on him being healthy if you draft him at his current ADP in round 5. If he does manage to stay on the field, he should easily return his draft day value and could easily be going in the first two rounds of drafts in 2025.
Michael Busch, Cubs (ADP: 386.3, 3B 39)
- 2023 Stats: 27 G / 9 R / 2 HR / 7 RBI / 1 SB / .167 AVG / .247 OBP / .539 SLG
Michael Busch didn’t live up to his hype in his 27 games at the major league level with the Dodgers last year, but now there is new hope for him in Chicago. There was never a spot for him to play everyday in Los Angeles, but he is penciled in as the Cubs everyday 1B for 2024. Still the 51st ranked prospect according to MLB.com, he crushed in AAA last season, slashing .323/.431/.618 with 26 home runs in only 98 games. He is known for great place discipline, so his walks would make him even more valuable in OBP or points leagues. He will start the year with only 3B eligibility, but will gain 1B soon into the season. Already 26 years old, this will likely be his first and last chance to show whether he can live up to his prospect pedigree. Although not in play for standard-sized mixed leagues, he is a good late pick for upside in 15 teamers, draft and holds, or NL only leagues. His ADP of 386 requires little risk, and he could crack the top 12 3B in the best case scenario that he translates his skills from AAA to MLB.
Jake Burger, Marlins (ADP: 152.0, 3B 14)
- 2023 Stats: 141 G / 71 R / 34 HR / 80 RBI / 1 SB / .250 AVG / .309 OBP / .518 SLG
It could be argued that Jake Burger already broke out in 2023, but I think there is still room for him to take another step forward. He has some of the best raw power in the game, with his 118.2 mph max exit velocity ranking in the top 1% of the league and 16.7% barrel rate ranking in the top 2 percent. He also put up a 91.9 mph average exit velocity and 49.6 hard-hit rate, leading to an exceptional .512 xSLG. The downside of Burger, similar to most power hitters, is a low batting average and high strikeout rate. However, his .270 xBA suggests there is room for improvement over the .250 average he had last season. On top of that, he actually did show significant improvement in that department after being traded to the Marlins.
He kept up his elite power production while also hitting for a .303 average, a whole .089 points higher than he did with the White Sox. Burger is currently being drafted in the 12th round on average, which is simply way too low. There are very few players in the game in general that possess true 40 home run upside, so he is a great pick in drafts even if he repeats his .250 batting average. If he can improve on that average, you are getting a top-10 or better fantasy 3B as the 14th 3B off the board.
Noelvi Marte, Reds (ADP: 164.0, 3B 17)
Cincinnati Reds infielder Noelvi Marte has been hit with an 80-game suspension for a performance-enhancing drug violation. The club’s No. 1 prospect was projected to be the primary third baseman in the 2024 season but he will have to wait until mid-season to assume that role. Marte appeared in 35 games for the Reds in the 2023 season, impressing with a .316 average alongside three home runs, six stolen bases, and an .822 OPS across 123 trips to the plate. The 22-year-old also hit .279 with 11 home runs, 18 steals, and a .812 OPS across 92 games between the Double-A and Triple-A levels a season ago. Offseason signee Jeimer Candelario will likely handle the bulk of reps at the hot corner for the Reds in the season’s first half, boosting his fantasy stock.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates (ADP:185.3, 3B 20)
- 2023 Stats: 124 G / 65 R / 15 HR / 61 RBI / 10 SB / .271 AVG / .309 OBP / .453 SLG
Ke’Bryan Hayes is no stranger to breakout lists, as people have been waiting for him to take that next step forward ever since his rookie year in 2020. That “next step” for Hayes has always been to hit the ball in the air more, as his raw power is still as apparent as ever. His average exit velocity of 92.2 mph and 48.3% hard-hit rate were both elite numbers. The problem has always been that he hits the ball on the ground too often, but that finally started to change in the last two months of the season.
Upon returning from an IL stint to due a back injury on August 2, he hit more fly balls than ground balls for the first time in his career. He also increased his pull rate from 27.9% to 35.4%. Those two changes saw him finally unlock his power potential, blasting 10 homers in the final 49 games of the season. If this change sticks heading into 2024, Hayes would be a rare power/speed threat at 3B. He only stole 10 bases in 2023, half of his 20 from 2022, but that may have been due to his nagging back injury. If he keeps on hitting the ball in the air, a 25 home run, 20 stolen base season is certainly possible. He is going very late in drafts and is a great upside pick as a bench bat or CI option.
Maikel Garcia, Royals (ADP: 268.3, 3B 25)
- 2023 Stats: 123 G / 59 R / 4 HR / 50 RBI / 23 SB / .272 AVG / .323 OBP / .358 SLG
Maikel Garcia is essentially Ke’Bryan Hayes 2.0. He hits the ball very hard but rarely in the air, making his power production almost non-existent. His 91.8 mph average exit velocity and 50.6% hard-hit rate show great power, but his fly-ball rate of 27.4% was the 7th-lowest among qualified hitters. The good news for Garcia is that the rest of his balls in play aren’t exclusively ground balls. His ground ball rate of 48.0% is high, but he also has a line-drive rate of 24.6%, the 7th-highest in the league. It is easier to turn line drives into fly balls than ground balls, so a slight swing adjustment could see huge power returns for Garcia. The benefit for potential drafters is that Garcia will still provide other categories even if he doesn’t see a breakthrough in his power. He stole 23 bases and hit for a .272 batting average in 2023, and he should repeat that production in 2024. He has very good contact skills, with a well above-average 20.6% chase rate and 19.5% whiff rate. In smaller 10 or 12-team leagues Garcia may not be a factor, but he is a good CI option late in drafts for deeper leagues.
