Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy
Often during fantasy baseball draft season, it’s fun to find some cheap alternatives based on expected production. We’ll scour the projection systems, specifically the BAT X by Derek Carty to find at least one hitter at each position to consider the cheap alternative. Sure, we have some differences in counting stats and batting average with some. However, it’s an activity to consider to better understand the player pool for tiers and player values. That said, let’s dive into some cheap alternatives for hitters using the BAT X projections as a guide. This doesn’t mean you should pass on Player A for Player B since in some cases, we have yet to see that type of production from a player. As with any discounts, sometimes we have drawbacks with the cheap alternatives.
C – Cheap Alternative to Will Smith (94 ADP)
Will Smith (94 ADP): 20 HR, 55 R, 59 RBI, 2 SB, .245 BA in 404 PA
Dodgers catcher Will Smith remains a hot name in fantasy baseball with his offensive production. Across 2019 and 2020, Smith totaled 23 home runs, 53 runs, 67 RBI, and two steals with a triple slash of .268/.363/.574 in 333 plate appearances. Since debuting in 2019, Smith continued to hit and produce. Recent reports indicate that Smith will share time with Austin Barnes, which means his playing time will take a hit. However, on a per plate appearance basis, Smith’s projections look solid.
Travis d’Arnaud (130 ADP): 18 HR, 57 R, 61 RBI, 1 SB, .261 BA in 454 PA
After a solid 2019 campaign, where Travis d’Arnaud totaled 16 home runs, 52 runs, and 69 RBI with a .251 batting average in 391 plate appearances, he performed well in 2020. d’Arnaud followed that up with nine home runs, 19 runs, 34 RBI, and one steal with a .321 batting average in 184 plate appearances. If we double d’Arnaud’s 2020 stats, it paces out to 18 home runs 38 runs, 68 RBI, and two steals. Outside of a handful of catchers, it’s difficult to find catchers that project for more than 400 plate appearances. According to the BAT X, d’Arnaud projects for 18 home runs, 57 runs, 61 RBI, and one steal with a .261 batting average. I’ll happily target d’Arnaud as my first catcher and he projects as a cheap alternative to Will Smith.
1B – Cheap Alternative to Matt Olson (91 ADP)
It pains me to consider a cheap alternative to Matt Olson, who I love. However, given the team context and home ballpark, C.J. Cron looks like a 2021 bounce-back candidate with the Rockies. Once a favorite sleeper in 2020, unfortunately, Cron suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Rockies signed Cron to a minor league contract as a non-roster invite. We know Coors Field boosts hitter production since they rank 1st in wOBA, 1st in batting average, 7th in home runs, and 1st in BABIP according to EV Analytics Park Factors. That said, it should boost Cron’s batting average as he eats up the power and counting stats. The BAT X projects Cron for 30 home runs, 73 runs, 88 RBI, and one steal with a .273 batting average in 545 plate appearances. In the past couple of weeks, Cron’s ADP jumped near pick 200 to a 224 NFBC ADP. If you’re waiting on first base, then target Cron.
As mentioned earlier, it pains me to think about a cheap alternative to Matt Olson. In 2020, Olson recorded a 96.7 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 14) behind Joey Gallo. He consistently displayed double-digit barrel rates and high-end hard-hit rates. When looking at the BAT X projections, it looks similar to C.J. Cron with 31 home runs, 78 runs, 85 RBI, and two steals with a .229 batting average for Olson. Overall, the batting average looks awful, but Olson feels like a cheaper Pete Alonso with 35-40 home run potential. First base is one position to wait on for a guy like Cron as a cheap alternative at first base.
2B – Cheap Alternative to Cavan Biggio (63 ADP)
The second base position drops off around Jose Altuve and Mike Moustakas, which makes it a tricky position to draft. One player to avoid includes Cavan Biggio unless it’s an OBP league, then Biggio rises in the ranks. If you miss out on the early tier at second base, then queue up Starlin Castro and Jonathan Schoop in the late rounds. Granted that Castro and Schoop don’t provide the steals that Biggio produces, but both late-round second basemen look like extreme values. Below, let’s look at the projections courtesy of the BAT X.
Starlin Castro (432 ADP): 20 HR, 62 R, 72 RBI, 2 SB, .277 BA in 521 PA
Jonathan Schoop (368 ADP): 20 HR, 59 R, 65 RBI, 2 SB, .253 BA in 525 PA
Cavan Biggio (63 ADP): 20 HR, 82 R, 66 RBI, 11 SB, .235 BA in 609 PA
Avoid actively targeting Biggio in batting average leagues, and make note of cheaper alternatives in Schoop and Castro. Though both later options would better serve as middle infield or bench bats.
SS – Cheap Alternative to Gleyber Torres (67 ADP)
Outside of ADP, the main difference between Paul DeJong and Gleyber Torres includes runs, RBI, and batting average. Yes, those are three of the five main roto categories. However, at their peak, Torres easily beats out DeJong in batting average. In 2019, Torres totaled 38 home runs, 96 runs, 90 RBI, and five steals with a .278 batting average. Meanwhile, DeJong’s peak 2019 season included 30 home runs 97 runs, 78 RBI, and nine steals with a .233 batting average. That’s a stark difference in batting average and small differences in home runs and RBI. However, don’t take too much from Torres’ 2020 season since he suffered a hamstring injury that likely derailed his season.
I love the 67 ADP for Torres as a four-category contributor that chips in some steals. However, keep DeJong in mind if you miss out on the early shortstop tier. The BAT X projects a fair .243 batting average for DeJong with 26 home runs, 78 runs, 83 RBI, and five steals. Meanwhile, according to the BAT X, Torres projects for 29 home runs, 86 runs, 85 RBI, and six steals with a .266 batting average. Keep in mind, as with any cheap alternative, we’ll have some drawbacks with the later options. In the case of DeJong and Torres, there’s a difference in park factors as well.
3B – Cheap Alternative to Nolan Arenado (40 ADP)
Pass on Nolan Arenado for similar or better production with Eugenio Suarez. Initially, I didn’t mind Arenado at his ADP after the Rockies traded him to the Cardinals. However, I’m passing on Arenado given the potential regression due to the park factors. In a recent article, Arenado fell on the list of players to consider fading. Below shows the differences in park factors that will likely negatively affect Arenado’s batting average and BABIP. Coors Field notably boosts up BABIP and batting average.
Then as we might expect given the park factor differences, the BAT X and ATC seem to regress the counting stats and batting average. That said, let’s take a peek at Eugenio Suarez going almost 30 picks later.
Eugenio Suarez struggled slightly in 2020, particularly in batting average. He hit .202 compared to .260, .283. and 271 from 2017 to 2019. The Statcast batted ball profile for Suarez looked similar to his 2019 numbers with small increases that tell us his 2020 production could’ve evened out over a full season.
One concern with Suarez that’s floated around recently – his success against the shift. In 2020, opposing teams shifted more against Suarez and his wOBA against the shift decreased significantly. It’s something to monitor in 2021, and hopefully, he makes adjustments.
OF – Cheap Alternative to Michael Conforto (71 ADP)
In OBP leagues, Michael Conforto’s value rises with a career .358 OBP compared to Max Kepler’s career .319 OBP. If we average out both of their peak seasons in 2018 and 2019, they both have similar counting stats.
Kepler uses the pull-heavy (46.2%) fly ball (42.9%) approach while Conforto sprays the ball around with a lower fly ball rate at 38.3% in his career. It appears that Kepler is selling out for power and expect him to hit more in the 25-28 home run range. Conforto is the better hitter, but counting stats wise they project similarly according to the BAT X.
Max Kepler (185 ADP): 26 HR, 83 R, 77 RBI, 5 SB, .247 BA in 623 PA
Michael Conforto (71 ADP): 27 HR, 87 R, 85 RBI, 6 SB, .253 BA in 659 PA
If you miss on Michael Conforto, then queue up Max Kepler who goes about 100 picks later in NFBC drafts over the past couple of weeks.
OF – Cheap Alternatives to Cavan Biggio (63 ADP)
Before you roll your eyes with Andrew Benintendi, he projects to have a similar yet discounted profile of Cavan Biggio at outfield. The main difference with Biggio involves the triple eligibility (2B/3B/OF) and a better opportunity for runs and counting stats with the Blue Jays. Benintendi is a few years removed from his 20 home run and 20 steal season. His ADP at 213 feels like the lowest it has ever been and a prime bounceback candidate now with the Royals.
Benintendi displayed a healthy line drive rate at 22% in his career but doesn’t quite have consistent 20 home run power. However, he should provide 15 plus home runs with double-digit steals. I won’t go deep into why I’m avoiding Biggio, particularly in batting average leagues, since I discussed him in an earlier article.
Let’s look at the BAT X projections for Andrew Benintendi and Cavan Biggio.
Andrew Benintendi (213 ADP): 16 HR, 69 R, 65 RBI, 10 SB, .260 BA in 559 PA
Cavan Biggio (63 ADP): 20 HR, 82 R, 66 RBI, 11 SB, .235 in 609 PA
Target Benintendi as a cheap alternative going past pick 200 while Biggio goes at pick 63. The Royals have a sneaky good lineup that will produce with additions of Benintendi and Carlos Santana.
OF – Cheap Alternatives to Austin Meadows (92 ADP)
Although A.J. Pollock carries injury risk, when healthy, Pollock produces. Sure, he’s aging, but he provides some 20 home run power and double-digit steal potential. According to the BAT X projection systems, Pollock projects for similar numbers to Austin Meadows who goes much earlier in drafts. Pollock is a solid hitter with a high Z-Contact% of 92% with a decent 19.6% line drive rate across his career. Unfortunately, Pollock missed time throughout the past four seasons, not including 2020. From 2016 to 2019, Pollock landed on the injured list four times for significant portions of time of 409 days missed. That’s an issue since fantasy baseball is a game of accumulating stats.
On the flip side, let’s look at Austin Meadows’ profile. In 2019, Meadows broke out with 33 home runs, 83 runs, 89 RBI, and 12 steals with a .291 batting average. Then in 2020, Meadows struggled with four home runs, 19 runs, 13 RBI, and two steals with a .205 batting average likely due to COVID-19 and an oblique strain. Similar to Max Kepler, Meadows uses the pull-heavy (43.7%) fly ball (43%) approach, which likely boosts his power. However, Meadows does rock a healthy 22.3% line drive rate in his career.
Meadows is a prime bounce-back candidate in 2021, but we have a couple of outfielders that could provide similar production. That said, let’s look at the BAT X projections for Meadows and Pollock.
A.J. Pollock (188 ADP): 26 HR, 80 R, 81 RBI, 11 SB, .261 BA in 573 PA
Austin Meadows (92 ADP): 25 HR, 68 R, 72 RBI, 10 SB, .256 BA in 502 PA
A.J. Pollock inches out Austin Meadows across the board but Pollock carries more injury risk, especially since Pollock hasn’t logged that many plate appearances since 2015. However, Meadows has an NFBC ADP of 92 compared to Pollock’s 188 NFBC ADP. From a counting stat potential, it’s important to look for cheap alternatives at each position. Sometimes it’s name value or recent production that spikes a player’s ADP.
Another cheap alternative to Austin Meadows – Wil Myers of the San Diego Padres. In 2020, Myers performed well with 15 home runs, 34 runs, 40 RBI, and two steals with a .288 batting average. Similar to Pollock, Myers carries injury risk, but less so than Pollock based on recent plate appearances. Even in 2019, Myers didn’t log a ton of plate appearances at 490 but totaled 18 home runs and 16 steals with a .239 batting average. However, in 2019, the strikeout rate jumped to 34.3% compared to his 26.6% career strikeout rate. The BAT X projection below looks like Myers could serve as a cheap alternative to Meadows.
Wil Myers (132 ADP): 25 HR, 83 R, 80 RBI, 16 SB, .241 BA in 637 PA
Between A.J. Pollock and Wil Myers, I lean towards Myers as the preferred cheap alternative to Austin Meadows.
