Fantasy Baseball: Examining Four Hot & Cold Hitters

Hot & Cold Hitters

It’s hard not to think of that Katy Perry song when typing hot or cold since that’s the process we’re deciding on with these four players. As we examine four hot and cold hitters, we attempt to help decide whether to keep, cut, or trade the following players. Eventually, we’ll dive into pitchers in our hot and cold fantasy baseball series with more data. Let’s dive into our weekly hot and cold series with reasons for concern or optimism. 

Hot Hitters

Seiya Suzuki (OF – CHC)

In redraft leagues, I played scared and didn’t draft Seiya Suzuki. I should’ve trusted Cool Whip’s deep dive on Suzuki in the off-season. It’s safe to say there’s major FOMO here with Suzuki, given the four home runs, nine runs, and 11 RBI with a .387 batting average and 1.404 OPS. 

Suzuki is crushing the ball and maintaining elite plate discipline, evidenced by the 11% O-Swing%, 88.4% Z-Contact%, and 80% Contact%. In 2019, Alex Bregman led the majors with an 18.8% O-Swing%, then in 2021, Juan Soto led the league at 15.1%. That’s typically half of the league average chase rate. Suzuki’s 15.4% Barrel% per plate appearance ranks top-20 with the early sample. 

Suzuki rocks a wild batted ball profile, evidenced by the 57.1% FB%, 38.1% GB%, and 4.8% LD%. Sure, the 33.3% HR/FB% will regress, but Suzuki uses an all-field approach with a 47.6% Cent%. I’m guessing the FB% will drop in favor of a higher LD% since it’s unusual to see the LD% that low, with Matt Chapman having the lowest LD% in 2021 at 14.6%. Amongst the top-20 hitters in FB%, only Kyle Tucker, Trevor Story, and Justin Turner had a Pull% below 40%. 

Takeaways

Suzuki has a hit in nine out of 11 games started, with a third hitless game in a pinch-hit appearance. So far, Suzuki’s early-season success aligns with the career slash line of .315/.414/.570 in the Nippon Professional Baseball league. It might be the FOMO speaking, but I’d like to buy high on Suzuki, especially in OBP leagues. Soak up the positive value if you snagged Suzuki around an ADP of 150 in NFBC leagues. However, don’t sell high unless for the sake of doing so. I’d value Suzuki as a top 75-100 player in dynasty formats and a top-25 OF in redraft leagues. 

Owen Miller (2B – CLE)

In Week 1, fantasy managers might have thought Owen Miller is a fluke. Then Miller crushed with four games with multiple hits, including six doubles and two home runs. With the early-season success as one of the hot hitters, Millers is forcing his way into the lineup. Sure, Miller can’t maintain a .545 BABIP boosting the .500 batting average. However, we must pounce and react to Miller’s dominance for two weeks. 

In 2021, Miller compiled four home runs and two stolen bases with a .204 batting average in 202 plate appearances. Miller finished with a 36.3% O-Swing%, plus league average contact rates with an 85.7% Z-Contact% and 76.3% Contact%. In 2022, Miller’s aggressive approach with a 37.6% O-Swing% remains, yet he’s making a ton of contact with a 97.6% Z-Contact% and 90.4% Contact%. Although it’s probably not sustainable for Miller, that’s an elite level of contact rates like David Fletcher or Kevin Newman. 

We’ll see if Miller can sustain the higher chase rate with the elite contact rates. That would matter a ton, especially if Miller shows the contact quality gains through two weeks with a 98.7 mph exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 35) near C.J. Cron. Last season, Miller posted a measly 91 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 322) amongst hitters with 100 batted ball events. However, Miller’s 107.9 mph maximum exit velocity looks similar to 2021 with a 108.2 mph, which typically sits slightly above average. 

Outside of the contact quality metrics, Miller’s 45.8% Pull% increased from 30.4% in 2021, which could mean he’s tapping into his pull side power. Unsurprisingly, Miller’s flyball rate jumped almost 9% from 2021 with fewer ground balls. 

Takeaways

Hopefully, this isn’t a 2021 version of Yermín Mercedes, who posted a triple slash of .415/.455/.659 with five home runs in April 2021 (88 PA). Mercedes rocked a .446 BABIP with a higher chase rate at 39.9%, plus an 11.4% Barrel%. From May to June, Mercedes hit .196 with a .536 OPS. The BABIP dropped to .236, the chase rate increased to 42.9%, and the barrel rate dropped to 4.8%. 

Owen Miller provides fantasy value in 12 or 15 team leagues, especially those with middle infield spots. With at least four or five games at first base, Miller could add positional eligibility soon, depending on the league rules. Although we have more confidence in Suzuki as an early-season hot hitter, Miller’s contact rates, contact quality, and batted ball changes warrant additional intrigue. 

Cold Hitters

Jarred Kelenic (OF – SEA)

After an underwhelming rookie season, Jarred Kelenic looks to grow as a hitter. In late July 2021, Kelenic made a swing change, and the results didn’t come right away. From July 27 and beyond, Kelenic compiled 12 home runs, 32 runs, 37 RBI, and three stolen bases with a .224 batting average in 246 plate appearances. That improved from two home runs, nine runs, six RBI, and three steals with a .102 batting average.

So, what changed? Interestingly, Kelenic’s plate discipline and batted ball data remained consistent regarding the GB% and FB%. However, Kelenic dropped his pull rate from 45.9% to 38% after July 27. That all fields approach, plus an improved barrel rate of 5.4% to 12%, helped the production. 

In the early season, Kelenic hasn’t produced much. However, he’s using the all fields approach with a 39.1% Pull% and 39.1% Cent%. There’s a bit of noise with the contact quality metrics, but Kelenic’s 13% Barrel% and 8.1% Barrel% per plate appearance increased from 2021. Also, Kelenic’s 114 mph maximum exit velocity places him in the 98th-percentile. 

Takeaways

Attempt to buy low on Jarred Kelenic in redraft and dynasty leagues, especially ones with five outfield spots. Fortunately, Kelenic’s 32.9% O-Swing% aligns with the 32.8% rate in 2021. However, Kelenic’s contact rates look concerning, with a 75.6% Z-Contact% and 71.6% Contact%. 

Assuming the contact rates regress towards the league averages like in 2021, with the contact quality remaining above-average, Kelenic could heat up soon. Kelenic hit another home run Tuesday that smacked the right-field foul pole with the second hardest-hit batted ball given a 110.2 mph exit velocity. 

Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL)

Two shortstops I loved heading into the 2022 season included Dansby Swanson and Willy Adames. Swanson and Adames served as a tier cutoff as starting shortstops, especially in deeper leagues. Unfortunately, Swanson is off to a brutal start with zero home runs, three runs, and two RBI with a .143 batting average. Although the 8% walk rate aligns with Swanson’s career 8.9% rate, the 42% strikeout rate concerns us. 

Swanson’s .280 BABIP hasn’t boosted the batting average yet and is slightly below his career average of .304. Unfortunately, Swanson is also batting in the bottom third of the lineup in 2022. However, in 2021, Swanson batted fifth or sixth in 69.2% of his plate appearances. As hitters inch towards the bottom of the lineup, the plate appearances and counting stats slowly dwindle. 

We could attribute Swanson’s struggles to the high 52% GB%, over 10% higher than the career rates. Furthermore, Swanson’s 52% Pull% jumped from 38.3% in 2020 and 44.1% in 2021, with a career rate of 41.8%. In the small 2022 sample, Swanson’s .116 wOBA versus the shift dropped from .330 in 2021. 

Swanson typically showed the ability to lay off pitches outside the zone. That hasn’t changed in 2022 with a 25.2% O-Swing%, but down over 4% from Swanson’s career average. It also looks like Swanson might be too patient with a 41.1% Swing% versus a career Swing% of 46.9%. Also, Swanson’s Z-Contact% of 75.9% and Contact% of 64.7% look worrisome versus his career norms of the 83.2% Z-Contact% and 74.7% Contact%. Fewer swings and less contact could explain the jump in strikeout rate. 

The concerning metrics continue with the contact quality stats down, evidenced by the 4% Barrel% per plate appearance. Over the past three seasons, that hovered between 6.8% to 7.5%. However, the small sample of two barrels (8%) looks similar to past seasons, though we need more data. With the launch angle changes, Swanson’s 89.3 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 322) dipped over five mph from 94.4 mph (No. 46) in 2021. 

Takeaways

Dansby Swanson has an extensive list of concerns, including the batted ball data, plate discipline, and contact quality. The lower lineup spot isn’t great either. Given Swanson’s ADP around pick 100, we hope he turns it around in the coming weeks and months. It’s early, so don’t overreact. However, monitor the Pull%, GB%, and plate discipline because the contact quality should improve along with those metrics. Attempt to buy low in redraft leagues because the elite defense will keep him in the lineup.