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Fantasy Baseball Tips in 2020
Everything is magnified during a shortened season. When you have a small sample set, which is basically what we have here, outliers will naturally play a larger role in defining the set as a whole. Throughout a regular 162-game season, if Mike Trout hits .230 over four weeks, it’s not a big deal. You will probably not even notice it. But over a 60-game season, which will be played over just a little more than 11 weeks, that .230 average will end up representing almost one-third of the season. As fantasy general managers we are constantly making decisions. Decisions on who to start, who to sit. Who to cut, who to keep. Who to pick up, who to let sit on the wire. Who to prioritize in free agency, and so on and so on. We use experience, data, news, common sense, and sometimes plain old gut to help us make them. This season, which I think we can all agree will be like none other we have ever seen, we are stripped of a luxury that we usually have in baseball: Time. Time to be patient because baseball, as we have always remembered it, is a game of averages, things tend to revert to the mean when given some time. With such a short season though, you will need to be decisive in your decision making and not drag your feet. Yes, there is more of an element of risk in these situations because when doing anything in less time than you normally would do it then it becomes more difficult and riskier. Where do you start? What should you look for when making those decisions? And which ones are the most important? I feel the need to focus on two areas: Slumps and Injuries. Before we get into specifics on how to treat slumps and injuries, remember there is no magic formula for any decision you will make because every league is different. We must always weigh the following:
League Size
Simply put, in a smaller league, for example, a 10-team league vs. a 14-team league, the player pool on free-agency will be deeper, making drops less costly because quality replacements can be easily found. So when it’s time to drop someone, it’s easier to do so in smaller leagues and you can probably give it even less thought than you normally would. Bigger the league, harder to find quality replacements, and good players get snatched up quickly.
Lineup requirements
Do you start 3 outfielders or 4? Do you start corner infield positions as well as 1B, 2B, 3B, and SS? The more players already on rosters, the fewer players that are in the available player pool, which in turn means the more confident you have to be that when you drop a player it doesn’t come back to bite you in the ass.
Injured List Spots
This is a big one this year. Along with all the knees, forearms, backs, wrists, blisters, shoulders, and whatever other injury a player can suffer that would land him on the shelf we need to worry about the risk of a player contracting Covid-19, which brings with it an automatic 14-day quarantine, which is over 20% of the season. A lot of leagues increased IL spots this year because of Covid-19 but in many cases, it may not be enough. Overall, you will be able to weather the injury storm (which this year could be a category 5 hurricane) more easily if you have more IL spots as you won’t have to drop players but rather elect to place them on the IL instead. While you won’t face tough decisions when you are picking up a player and just sending another to your IL, you will face them when those injured players eventually get healthy and need to either move back to your active roster or head back to the wire because you no longer have the space for them that you once did.
Your Place in the Standings
This is a question of whether or not you are in a position of strength? Can you suffer a loss to keep your team intact? On the flip side, desperate times call for desperate measures. If you take another couple losses early on is your season going to essentially be over before it even begins? Keeping injured bodies on your bench is costly. You may still be able to set your lineup each week, but if someone is not playing and taking up a bench spot they are negatively impacting your team because it’s one less option you have when setting your lineup. It could be the difference in having an extra two-start pitcher vs. a one-start pitcher or being able to bench an outfielder that only has 5 games for one that has 7. Eventually, it will cost you points, which will cost you wins. And did I mention there’s a sense of urgency this year? Good.
Ok, the reason we came here…
Slumps
Let’s start with slumps. You need to watch your players for signs of slumping more closely than in past years because you will have less time to wait these players out. Of course, there are players that you are just not going to drop. Using FantasyData’s MLB player rankings, I would generally say anyone in the top 100 players is not cuttable solely because of a slump. Outside the top 100, you start to get tested as a GM. You must ask yourself how likely is this player to break out of his slump (and quickly) or could this be part of a larger trend? Take the Athletics’ Khris Davis for example. Between 2016 and 2018 Davis hit 42 or more homers each year, in 2019 though he only went yard 23 times, missed 26 games with various injuries, and had the worst batting average of his career. At 32 years old, Davis isn’t getting any younger and he is only eligible at DH. I think Davis is better than what he provided owners over the first week of the season, but if he doesn’t get his act together soon (batting .125 with 2 rbi), he can’t be started and depending on your other needs may be droppable. The season is too short for you to hold onto players that you can’t start but are scared to drop. When a player’s numbers are down you have to look at the entire picture. Has the player’s numbers been regressing the last few years? How’s his recent health? Coming off any sort of injury? Getting the same amount of at-bats as before? Has he had a position change? Is he on a new team? In a less friendly ballpark? Any of these things could be factors and signs that the player who is having a down year may actually be displaying the new norm. Approach this year like you are already in the playoff race, win now because if you don’t, there may not be a tomorrow.
Injuries
For as long as any of us have been playing fantasy baseball, or even simply been baseball fans, we’ve known baseball to be a marathon, not a sprint. We have known it as a game of averages. We know the season is long, guys get hurt, they get better. Players go through slumps, then they revert to the mean. Now you need forget what you know. Forget all of it. None of it applies to 2020. If you are going to be successful in 2020, you are going to stay on top of your team, watch news for injuries and box scores for slumps, make quick decisions, and take risks. Good luck.
