Julian Edelman Fantasy Value 2020

Julian Edelman: A PPR Machine

For virtually his entire NFL career, New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman has caught passes from only one passer: living legend and future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. With Brady now set to finish his career in Florida in true middle-aged New Englander fashion, it’s time for Edelman to prove that he is much more than a product of Brady’s slot obsession. Ever since he took over the role of slot receiver from Wes Welker in the 2013 season, Edelman has been an incredibly consistent fantasy football asset, particularly in PPR formats, where he has finished no lower than the WR20 spot (without missing significant time) during this period. While he’s no spring chicken at 34 years of age, Edelman is still a very viable fantasy asset, particularly in PPR formats where he could very well finish as a WR2 once again in 2020.

Most Games With 15+ PPR Points for WRs in 2019
(Current PPR ADP in Parentheses)

Michael Thomas: 14 (WR1)
DeAndre Hopkins: 11 (WR4)
Julian Edelman: 9 (WR37
D.J. Moore: 9 (WR16)
DeVante Parker: 9 (WR29)#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/KBWJZ2sviu

— FantasyData (@FantasyDataNFL) June 16, 2020

For a moment, it did appear as though Edelman could have a serious downgrade at the QB position, with all signs pointing to unproven former fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham as New England’s contingency plan for the departed Brady. That was until Bill Belichick pulled off perhaps his savviest move yet, signing former NFL MVP Cam Newton to an incentive-laden one-year deal to presumably replace Brady as the team’s starter. Rarely does an organization have the chance to replace a former MVP with a player of the same cut, particularly at the discounted price that Newton signed at.  While there are certainly some concerns to be had regarding Newton’s health — due to the fact that he played in only two games last season, logging the worst QBR in the league in those games — the Patriots offense will certainly have a much higher ceiling with Newton under-center, especially compared to the outlook of a Stidham-led passing attack. 

As it stands right now, there are not a ton of established targets in the Patriots receiving core outside of Edelman and pass-catching specialist James White, a running back in name only. While Edelman did lose the QB who was essentially a slot receiver’s best friend (Brady’s 98.3 passing grade when targeting the slot was the best among all qualified passers since 2010 per PFF), the drop-off from Brady to Newton shouldn’t be too large. Since taking on a starting role for the Patriots, Edelman has averaged over 11 targets per-game, while catching approximately 7 passes per-game during this period. Even if 2019 first-round pick N’Keal Harry and Mohamed Sanu manage to carve out larger roles in the passing game, it’s hard to imagine that involving Edelman heavily in the passing game will not be of the utmost importance for OC Josh McDaniels, especially as the team looks to integrate Newton into the system during a pandemic shortened offseason. Given the fact that Newton has dealt with various shoulder injuries in the previous few seasons, it may be in the QB’s best interest to pepper throws to the short and intermediate parts of the field more often than not, an area where Edelman does the majority of his damage. 

Could N’Keal Harry Cut Into Edelman’s Workload?

The biggest wild card on New England’s roster, second-year wideout N’Keal Harry is entering a make-or-break season that could very well dictate Edelman’s future with the club. Harry, who the team took with the final pick in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft, is in many ways the Anti-Edelman receiver. At 6’3, 225 lbs, Harry’s claim to fame is his ability to physically overpower and engulf defenders with his massive frame, the ideal traits that a team would look for in a possession receiver. During his days with the Sun Devils, Harry was a wrecking ball when running after the catch, as just over 44% of his total career receiving yardage post-reception. In many ways, Harry’s best fit in New England’s system would be as an oversized slot receiver, in a similar capacity to guys like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Michael Thomas. While Edelman has the slot receiver spot locked down (for the time being), it’s entirely possible that Harry could see some work in that role this year, with Edelman being pushed outside on certain occasions. Even if Harry continues to be used as a boundary receiver, there remains a chance that Newton will prefer getting the ball to him over Edelman, as the veteran QB has previously established tremendous rapport with larger receivers like Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. Getting Harry involved in the offense should be imperative, as the targets vacated by Philip Dorsett and Josh Gordon must be redirected somewhere and the draft capital invested into Harry suggests that New England has a vision for him. 

Oh, hey… there’s a second-year WR on the Pats who excels in contested situations and has a breakout age in the 95th percentile. Mark it: N’Keal Harry is gonna see 80+ looks and pull down at least 7 TDs.

— Liz Loza (@LizLoza_FF) June 29, 2020

Will Newton’s Struggles Throwing To The Slot Continue?

In many ways, Newton is the complete opposite type of quarterback in comparison to Tom Brady. The former Heisman winner rushed for more yards in his first two seasons than Brady has in his entire NFL career while logging a career completion percentage (59.6%) that’s lower than Brady’s worst full-season mark (60.2%). While Brady is a maestro when targeting the slot, Newton has been one of the least effective passers in this range, as evidenced by his mediocre passing grade to the position.

Over the past five seasons, Cam Newton’s PFF passing grade ranked 24th and his QB rating ranked 45th when targeting the slot among 50 qualifying QBs.

Tom Brady’s PFF passing grade ranked no.1 and his QB rating ranked 8th when targeting the slot during the same timespan

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 29, 2020

While it’s worth noting that Newton never had the opportunity to be paired with a player of Edelman’s caliber (apologies to Brenton Bersin, Philly Brown, and Curtis Samuel), there is a chance that Newton’s issues throwing to the slot have nothing to do with his receivers. If this is the case, then we may see a severe regression from Edelman this season.