Fantasy Baseball Trade Targets For Week 18
July is officially coming to a close, and your fantasy trade deadline is probably quickly approaching. Whether this is your final week to make trades or you have a few left, there is plenty of value to be found on the trade market. The MLB trade deadline is also this week, and deals have already been made that have affected players’ fantasy value. This is something you can take advantage of, as three of the five players I will mention here have recently been traded by their big-league clubs. Without further ado, here are five players you should be looking to trade for or trade away going into Week 18.
Buy-Low Candidates
Zach Eflin, SP, Orioles
Zach Eflin is one of the players who recently swapped teams, going from the Rays to the Orioles. Not only is he going to a much better team that should get him more wins, but his new home ballpark will also help him out. Camden Yards is notorious for its recent renovation that significantly moved back the wall in left field, making it a nightmare for right-handed hitters trying to hit one into the stands. For that reason, Austin Hays should see a nice power boost now that he got traded to the Phillies from the Orioles, and that dynamic will work in Eflin’s favor to help him limit home runs. Although his 4.09 ERA has been a disappointment so far this year, he still has elite control, walking only 2.8% of batters (99th percentile). He is just one year removed from being a top-10 pitcher for fantasy, and while I don’t think this move is enough to make him that good, I do think he will have a significantly better second half than the first half.
Xander Bogaerts, 2B/SS, Padres
After getting off to a slow start to the season and then getting injured in May, Xander Bogaerts is finally back and producing. In 11 games since being activated off of the injured list, he has picked up multiple hits in 8 of them. It’s fair to say that he’s not your typical buy-low candidate, considering he has been so good over the last week and a half. However, he was on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues just a few weeks ago, and his season numbers are still being dragged down by his bad April and May. He is slashing .272/.312/.384 on the season, but I expect those numbers to keep on rising from here on out. Even when he struggled to begin the season, he was one of the biggest underperformers in the league when looking at his actual stats compared to his expected stats. It’s looking like he dealt with some bad luck and an injury, but never actually regressed in any skills. I think he can easily be a top-10 second baseman for fantasy the rest of the way.
Jazz Chisholm, OF, Yankees
Jazz Chisholm is another player who was recently traded, going from the Marlins to the Yankees. He has performed very well this year and is already a top-20 outfielder for fantasy, but this trade unlocks his potential to be even better. Depending on where he falls in the lineup, he will either be batting before Judge and Soto and score a lot more runs, or he’ll bat behind the two of them and get way more RBI opportunities. Not only that but the short porch in Yankee Stadium is suited perfectly for his lefty swing. Based on Statcast estimations, if Chisholm had played every game in New York this season, he would have 19 home runs instead of the 13 that he actually has. The added power and counting stats could turn him from a borderline top 20 outfielder to someone pushing towards the top 10 at the position. Aaron Boone even said they plan to play Chisholm at 3B when he does play in the infield so that added eligibility will only increase his fantasy value even more.
Sell-High Candidates
Isaac Paredes, 1B/3B, Cubs
Isaac Paredes is the opposite case of Chisholm, as his trade sent him to a worse situation than he was already in. He went from the Rays to the Cubs, which could spell disaster for the pull-happy infielder. Paredes is a very unique player, as he has constantly put up good power numbers despite shockingly bad quality of contact metrics. He has an 84.9 mph average exit velocity (4th percentile), a 25.9% hard-hit rate (5th percentile), and an xSLG of .350 (14th percentile). He defies those poor numbers by hitting the third most fly balls of any player (50.8% FB%) and pulling the ball the second most of any player (53.2% Pull%). However, that strategy isn’t going to work as well at Wrigley Field. Where the LF wall was only 315 feet deep in Tampa Bay, it will be 355 feet in his new home in Chicago, and his expected home runs at the park are 11, compared to his actual number of 16. There’s always the chance that Paredes can adjust his approach to succeed under the new circumstances, but it’s more likely that we see regression from him in the second half.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Blue Jays
Kevin Gausman has had a very disappointing and inconsistent season, but he is coming off of one of his better starts of the year. He threw a complete game against the Rangers, allowing 3 runs and striking out 8. He also had a ten-strikeout game at the beginning of July, so his recent performance has definitely been better than his season as a whole. Still, he hasn’t given up less than 2 runs in a start since June 8, and he is still the same pitcher who has a 10.7% barrel rate (7th percentile) and a 90.2 mph average exit velocity (17th percentile). He is simply not the same pitcher he once was, and now is your chance to try to turn his name value and recent performance into a better player.
