Fantasy Baseball Trade Targets For Week 5
It’s hard to believe that we’re already one month into the season. Week 5 is here, and it’s becoming tougher to capitalize on skewed opinions from small samples of data. Players are starting to settle in and perform at more realistic levels, but good value can still be found. Here are five players who you should be looking to trade for or trade away as we head into May.
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Buy-Low Candidates
Lars Nootbaar, OF, Cardinals
Lars Nootbaar had a delayed start to the season, making his debut on April 12th after recovering from fractured ribs. He has batted .189 with one home run and two stolen bases since then, but his expected stats tell a completely different story. He has a much better xBA of .288, along with an xSLG of .491 compared to his actual SLG of .321. It’s not just his expected stats that show he has gotten unlucky, as every underlying metric paints him as an elite hitter at the moment. He is already known for great plate discipline, which he has carried over into 2024, chasing pitches only 14.5% of the time with a 14.5% whiff rate, 15.3% K rate, and 15.3% walk rate. He is also crushing the baseball, with his 53.7% hard-hit rate ranking him in the 94th percentile to go along with a 92.4 mph average exit velocity. I don’t think Nootbaar is suddenly going to transform into one of the game’s best hitters, but it’s clear that he should at least be an above-average one. Depending on how shallow your league is, he may even be on the waiver wire right now. He showed his potential last season during a two-month stretch in July and August when he slashed .318/.414/.561 with 8 home runs in 40 games. Now is your chance to get him for dirt cheap before he sees a spike in performance, and he is particularly valuable in points leagues and leagues with OBP as a category thanks to his elite walk rate.
Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets
Another OBP standout who had a slow start to the season is Brandon Nimmo. He is currently slashing .202/.358/.323 with 2 homers and 2 steals. He has still maintained a great on-base percentage thanks to his 97th percentile 16.9% walk rate, but what may surprise you is that he also has an 89th percentile xBA of .299 and an 87th percentile xSLG of .512. This suggests at worst you can expect a repeat of last season where he hit .274 with 24 home runs, despite how his surface stats currently look. He is basically Lars Nootbaar with a better track record, and he should be a solid top-40 outfielder in roto leagues with top-30 upside for points leagues and OBP leagues. He isn’t the flashiest player, but he will accumulate tons of runs to go along with a great batting average and a respectable home run total. Trade for him now before his average starts to rise.
Kyle Bradish, SP, Orioles
In a season that has been plagued by elbow injuries, it may seem not smart to trade for a pitcher who is just working his way back from a sprained UCL of his own. However, when so many fantasy owners are struggling to find pitching depth, Kyle Bradish could be the answer. Of course, he could need Tommy John surgery the next time he takes the mound, and that fear is what is currently suppressing his fantasy value. It might be hard to remember, but he was being drafted as a surefire top-30 starting pitcher this offseason and even crept up close to SP20 in some rankings. He had a stellar 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 168 strikeouts in 168.2 innings last season. He also pitches for one of the best teams in the league in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and I have no reason to believe he can’t pitch like an elite starter again if healthy. He just made his final rehab start in AAA, throwing 77 pitches over 5 innings while allowing 5 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, and striking out 6. He was starting to fall very far down draft boards by the end of draft season, with many expecting a much longer absence than just one month. He is slotted to rejoin the big league rotation this week, so this is your last chance to send an offer. It’s possible that your league mates forget just how dominant Bradish was or could be scared off by his elbow.
Sell-High Candidates
Carlos Rodon, SP, Yankees
Carlos Rodon was a popular breakout pick coming into this season, with many hoping he would look more like his 2022 self again. If you just look at his stats right now, it looks like that breakout could be coming true. He currently has a 2.48 ERA and in his last two starts has allowed just 3 hits, 3 walks, and 1 run with 12 strikeouts over 13 innings. However, context matters, and the fact that his 7 inning shutout performance was against the abysmal A’s makes a lot of sense. His underlying metrics don’t look good at all, including a 21.6% whiff rate (27th percentile), 41.1% hard-hit rate (36th percentile), and only a 22.1% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. Rodon used to be one of the premier strikeout pitchers in the league, but now even maintaining a strikeout per inning seems like a tough task. He has never gotten many groundballs, but now that he is striking out fewer people than ever and giving up harder contact than ever, it looks like a recipe for disaster. He will still have good starts here and there, but I view him as a very volatile pitcher who you probably don’t want in your lineup against tougher matchups. Maybe you can trade him to someone who still thinks he is a top-30 pitcher, but in reality, I think he is closer to SP50.
Wilyer Abreu, OF, Red Sox
Wilyer Abreu has been one of the hottest hitters over the past couple of weeks, slashing .349/.431/.605 with 2 home runs and 3 stolen bases in the last 14 days. He has been one of the most added players and has been especially valuable for those who picked him up in five-outfielder leagues. It’s easy to get excited about a player who’s performing like this, especially when it’s a young player batting cleanup for the Red Sox. I would try to take advantage of the recent hype and trade him now before he comes back down to earth. The most glaring flaw, which doesn’t even have to do with his performance, is the fact that he is a platoon bat. It’s hard to notice when he’s filling up the stat sheet so much when he does play, but he will be out of the lineup whenever there is a lefty on the mound. That alone makes him hard to use in weekly lineup leagues, and his underlying metrics don’t look good either. He has a large whiff rate of 31.9% and a strikeout rate of 24.4% percent, and his hard-hit rate is close to the league average. He also hasn’t been getting optimal launch angles on batted balls, with a 10th percentile sweet-spot rate of just 26%. All of this is the reason for his .228 xBA (compared to .292 actual BA) and .376 xSLG (compared to .472 SLG). He swings and misses too much and doesn’t hit the ball well enough to continue this hot streak for much longer, and on top of that he won’t play in a large portion of games. He will continue to be a fringe waiver-wire guy throughout the season, so I would trade him now if you can get anything of value.
