Fantasy Baseball Trade Targets For Week 6
May is here, and unfortunately for many fantasy owners, the trend of an injury-plagued April seems to be carrying over. It’s been less than a week into the new month, and we’ve already seen Trea Turner, Mike Trout, Steven Kwan, Grayson Rodriguez, and several others all land on the injured list. This is causing waiver wires to remain picked clean of any potential depth, and the trade market might be the best place to fill out your roster. Here are five players that I think are great values to either trade for or trade away heading into week 6.
Buy-Low Candidates
Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates
Bryan Reynolds has been decent this season but hasn’t quite lived up to his ADP. He is batting .243 with 13 R, 17 RBI, 4 HR, and 2 SB. There are definitely much bigger disappointments than him, but his expected stats show that he could still be a great player to buy low on. He has an xBA of .269 and xSLG of .473 (compared to his actual SLG of .397), making him one of the larger underperformers on the season. He hasn’t hit the ball that hard so far (only an 87.9 mph average exit velocity), so that makes it even more surprising that his expected stats are so good. He’s walking at an elite 13.7% clip which is a huge upgrade over his 8.3% BB% last season, which has allowed him to maintain a solid .344 OBP despite his bad batting average. His actual production should start to climb closer to his expected stats naturally, and I’m expecting his exit velocities to improve back to his career norms, too. Those two things mixed with a massively improved walk rate and an improved Pittsburgh lineup show potential for Reynolds to improve on his 2023 stats. At worst, I expect him to at least repeat the performance, where he slashed .263/.330/.460 with 24 HR and 12 SB. I view him as being in the top 15-20 range of outfielders in points leagues and OBP leagues and falls just outside the top 20 for standard roto leagues. It would be worth checking in to see if you can trade for him at any type of discount, as your league mates may underrate him for his rather boring month of April.
Nolan Gorman, 2B, Cardinals
Nolan Gorman is slashing just .182/.256/.336 on the season with 8 runs, 4 home runs, and 12 runs batted in. His expected stats are better, as he has a .237 xBA and .433 xSLG, but his underlying metrics as a whole are particularly strange. His average exit velocity is only 85.5 mph (10th percentile) and his hard-hit rate is 35.7% (32nd percentile). Those are not great numbers that would make you expect him to turn things around, but he also has an 11.4% barrel rate (81st percentile) and 42.9% sweet spot rate (91st percentile). This is especially weird because the minimum exit velocity required to be considered a “barrel” is 98 mph. The high barrel rate and sweet spot rate suggest that he is excelling at hitting the ball hard and hitting the ball at great launch angles, yet his actual average exit velocity is nothing short of terrible. This means that while he is hitting a lot of balls very well, he is also hitting a lot of balls very badly. The great launch angles make me believe that he hasn’t lost anything since last season, and he has a long track record of power that should see his exit velocities rise in no time. His expected stats show he has been getting unlucky as a whole, so I see no reason to worry and think he is due for a power binge. I have him ranked as my 13th-best 2B in all formats, and he could easily break into the top 12 once he heats up. His trade value should be pretty low right now, so take advantage if you need the 2B or MI help.
Tanner Bibee, SP, Guardians
Tanner Bibee has been excellent on the season overall, but has endured two rough outings that are skewing his stats. One of those rough outings was his most recent start against the Angels when he allowed 6 runs on 8 hits in only 5 innings. He was one of my favorite breakout picks coming into the year, and this is mostly about using his recent terrible start to try to get him at a discount if the Bibee owner in your league is overreacting. He is currently sitting at a 4.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 39:13 K:BB on the season. While those aren’t the best looking, he’s still had 3 starts of 8 or more strikeouts, and his slider (37.1% whiff rate, .202 xBA) and changeup (43.1% whiff rate, .137 xBA) are both looking like great pitches that have improved since last season. His main issue has been a .365 xBA against his fastball, but I don’t think that will be a long-term issue. I fully expect him to lock in down the stretch and perform like a clear top-30 fantasy SP the rest of the way, so trade for him now if you can get him for less than that.
Sell-High Candidates
Shota Imanaga, SP, Cubs
Shota Imanaga has been spectacular so far since his move from Japan, posting a 5-0 record with a 0.78 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a 35:4 K:BB in 34.2 innings. I think he is a great pitcher who was vastly undervalued on draft day, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a good time to sell high on him. He has a lot of buzz around his name at the moment, and many are talking about him like he’s a fantasy ace. While he is a very valuable pitcher for fantasy, I would jump on the opportunity to trade him away at ace value. He had home run issues in Japan thanks to his fly ball tendencies and hard-hit problems, and those are still showing up in his underlying metrics despite his amazing month of April. He has a 38.7% ground ball rate and a 40.9% hard-hit rate, both worse than the league average. His xERA is still a very good number of 2.75 (81st percentile), and obviously, his actual ERA of below 1.00 is unsustainable. I fear that hitters just haven’t had the time to adjust to him yet, and when they do, it could get especially scary for a fly ball pitcher with a 92 mph fastball on days when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley. I rank Imanaga in my top 30 at the position, but would still prefer players such as Zach Eflin, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and his teammate, Justin Steele. If someone in your league views him as a top-15 pitcher, I would trade him now before hitters start to figure him out.
Jurickson Profar, OF, Padres
Jurickson Profar has been one of the hottest hitters over the past couple of weeks and is racking up counting stats in the middle of the Padres lineup. He currently has 20 runs, 5 home runs, 23 runs batted in, and 2 stolen bases with 18 walks compared to only 21 strikeouts. He is batting .344 and his baseball savant page is lit up with red, with a .374 xwOBA, .306 xBA, .445 xSLG, and 90.5 mph average exit velocity that blow his career norms out of the water. It’s usually worth getting excited about former top prospects who look like they are breaking out, but Profar is too far removed from his days as the number one overall prospect in 2013. This is now his 12th year in the majors, and there’s just no reason to believe that the 31-year-old is having a breakout season. He has been a fringe fantasy player over the past decade, and everyone enjoys hot streaks every once in a while. There’s no harm in plugging him in your lineups and enjoying the production while it lasts, but I expect him to regress to his career norms of 10th percentile hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and xSLG very soon. I would trade him for anyone who is too good to be on the waiver wire.
