Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Week 2

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Week 2: Will You Be My Guardian?

Through the first eight days of games in the 2022 Fantasy Baseball season, one team and one team only has five batters in the top 25 of Yahoo’s rotisserie rankings: the Cleveland Guardians. The surprise offensive explosion over at Progressive Field has been led by one superstar and several guys who average baseball fans have probably never heard of. Are these hot starts worthy of waiver wire pickups heading into the second full scoring period of 2022?

This weekly piece will look at five options under 50% rostered on Yahoo for 12- and 15-team leagues that are worthy of waiver bids or claims. As the season progresses we will have more data from which to draw conclusions, but for now, we have to play the hand we’re dealt.

Waiver Options For 12-Team Leagues

Gavin Lux, 2B/SS/OF, Dodgers (60% rostered) – I will cheat a little with this first one since he falls slightly above the roster percentage threshold. But right now, anyone getting consistent at-bats in the Dodgers’ lineup needs to be rostered, especially someone with Lux’s pedigree. Lux consistently put up .300/.400/.500 numbers in the minors and has multiple double-digit steal seasons plus three seasons with 11+ home runs. His walk rate is elite and his strikeout rate has dropped from 29.3% in his first cup of coffee in 2019 to 18.2% in the early going this season.

Raimel Tapia, OF, Blue Jays (18% rostered) – If Tapia was drafted in your league, he was probably dropped after the late Spring Training trade that brought him from the leadoff spot in Colorado to the bench in Toronto. But now with Teoscar Hernandez on the IL and Alejandro Kirk pulled into catcher duties with Danny Jansen hurt, there is playing time once more for Tapia. Tapia is coming off a 20-steal season last year and just hit fifth last night in his first taste of action since the injuries. If you bat him behind Toronto’s big bats consistently, he is going to quickly return value on your investment.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets (20% rostered) – If you play in an On Base Percentage league and Nimmo is still available, stop reading this right now and go grab him or put in a bid. His OBP has been above .375 for six straight seasons and now he gets the benefit of batting leadoff for one of the most potent offenses in the National League. But even if you are just in traditional Batting Average leagues, he is coming off of back-to-back .280 and .292 seasons with a little bit of pop and plenty of runs scored.

Andrew Heaney SP, Dodgers (19% rostered) – Heaney has always struggled with two things: keeping the ball in the ballpark and allowing hard contact. Those flaws have often hidden the elite 10+ K/9 rates we see year in and year out, and have bloated his ERA to 4.50 and above in three of the last four years. But now a member of the Dodgers, something interesting happened that led to a first start of zero runs, zero walks, and five punchouts in 4.1 innings. Traditionally, Heaney threw his fastball about 55-60% of the time and his curve around 25%. In his first start, he threw the curve (46.3%) more than the fastball (44.8%). His changeup (normally around 20%) was essentially a non-factor (4.5%). If the Dodgers unlock something in him that allows him to be more effective with more breaking balls, this is a place to invest now.

Tanner Rainey, RP, Nationals (24% rostered) – In the elusive chase for saves in an MLB season, Rainey all of a sudden looks like one of the most reliable options at our disposal. At only 24% rostered, I bet that number more than doubles after this weekend’s FAB runs. In his three innings, he has produced two saves, a 27% strikeout rate, and a 50% groundball rate. That’s the stuff closers are made out of, and if Rainey can keep the velocity up on his mid-90s fastball and high-80s slider, this could be a reliable source of saves all season.

Waiver Options for 15-Team Leagues

Oscar Mercado, OF, and Owen Miller, 1B/2B, Guardians (4% and 28% rostered) – We’ve all seen the crazy numbers Jose Ramirez has in the early going, Myles Straw is stealing bases, and Steven Kwan is out here looking like Rod Carew. But both Mercado and Miller find themselves in the top 25 hitters so far this season. Miller and Mercado have settled in as the sixth and seventh hitters, respectively, in this lineup which means they are following on-base machines Kwan, Ramirez, and Franmil Reyes in the lineup. Will they eventually move past Amed Rosario in the fifth spot? That remains to be seen, but especially Miller has the minor league profile to keep up a strong average with some help in both steals and homers.

Seth Brown, OF, Athletics (6% rostered) – Finally unleashed for a full workload, the 29-year-old masher is unleashing his power as Oakland is surprising everyone with an early 4-3 record. Brown has already crushed two home runs and is sixth in the majors in RBI. He has his fourth or fifth every day this season and has increased his average exit velocity (91.8) and launch angle (22.8 degrees) tremendously over last season. This may a true breakout season and Oakland has no reason not to play him every day.

Thairo Estrada, 2B/SS/OF, Giants (4% rostered) – You could probably win a bar bet in San Francisco if you asked someone who are the two Giants who have started every day for San Francisco through their first six games. It’s not Brandon Belt or Mike Yastrzemski or Brandon Crawford. Your answers are Darin Ruf and Thairo Estrada. Estrada has bounced between 5^th-7^th in the lineup and has shown a little bit of pop and speed in his career. This is his 10^th year of professional baseball, but he just turned 26 years old and could very well give us a mini-breakout season if the Giants keep running him out there every day.

Justin Steele, SP, Cubs (10% rostered) – Anytime a pitcher comes into Coors and comes away relatively unscathed, we have to take notice. He followed up a five-inning, no runs allowed performance to the Brewers by giving up only two runs to the Rockies on the road on Thursday. Part of how he is doing it is consistently inducing groundballs to opponents. After a 50% groundball rate in 57 innings last season he is back at exactly 50% again in the early going in 2022. He is also giving us a strikeout per inning so far and has a much more manageable matchup against the Rays at home the next time through the rotation.

Cristian Javier, SP/RP, Astros (38% rostered) – Sometimes you put things out into the universe in hopes that they will happen as you wish. I am the biggest Javier fanboy in the universe and if he keeps putting up long relief appearances as he did on Wednesday, he deserves to be in the rotation. At this point, Jake Odorizzi is just a guy you hope gives you 4+ innings allowing four or fewer runs. Javier, meanwhile, came into a one-run game and gave the Astros three innings with no walks, no hits, and five strikeouts. It truly has to be just a matter of time before they deploy Javier into the rotation, perhaps when he is stretched out to five innings. No walks on Wednesday was an especially good sign for his prospects. His issues last season were with free passes, allowing 4.71 per nine innings. But if he can reel those in, his strikeout rate of 30% for his career should give him that shot to start. In the meantime, he should give you high quality middle relief innings.