If you haven’t checked out our MLB Lineups page, you’re missing out. FantasyData has created a few new pages for the reduced 2020 baseball season to help you with your fantasy roster and or sports betting needs. We also created an MLB optimizer for those looking to play DraftKings, Fanduel, or Yahoo in any daily fantasy games.
Baseball Waiver Wire Week 3
With the wild fantasy baseball season, sometimes we need to take a more aggressive approach to waiver wire adds and drops. In a full season, we can wait on players, but it is extra challenging in a shortened season. The week 3 waiver wire includes players on hot streaks, pitchers making pitch mix changes, and relievers to target. It is a massive waiver wire group this week, so let’s dive in.
Hitters
Gio Urshela, 3B, New York Yankees
15% FAAB
Gio Urshela has been on fire lately with hits in six straight games. During that six-game stretch (7/31 – 8/6), he’s hitting .455/.478/.955 with three home runs, five runs, ten RBI, and one steal. Urshela’s Statcast data backs up the hot start with a 51.4% hard-hit rate (95th percentile) and a 94 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 98) tied with Francisco Lindor. Add Urshela if he’s still available on waivers.
Anthony Santander, OF, Baltimore Orioles
15% FAAB
Anthony Santander’s season-long line might not excite everyone since he’s slashing .254/.279/.508 with three home runs, ten runs, and 14 RBI. Santander’s Statcast metrics may not jump off the page with a 40.8% hard-hit rate and a 92.7 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD. However, his expected stats look promising with a .292 xBA (90th percentile) and .544 xSLG (86th percentile). Santander’s line drive is another batted ball metric that provides hope for increased production. Currently, he’s increased his line drive rate to 24.5% with a lowered ground ball rate at 28.6%. He’s also typically shown a 45% pull rate, but it’s currently at 34.7%. Add Santander if he’s available.
Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B, Washington Nationals
15% FAAB
JaCoby Jones, OF, Detroit Tigers
12-15% FAAB
The Tigers missed a few games due to postponements, and thus it paused the JaCoby Jones breakout. On the season, he’s hit three home runs, eight runs, and nine RBI while slashing .364/.432/.758. Jones’ 50% hard-hit rate ranks in the 85th percentile, and his 93.3 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD ranks 111th right behind Mookie Betts. Jones left a game over the weekend with an injury. Monitor his status, and if he’s healthy, then add Jones and ride the hot streak.
Donovan Solano, 2B/3B, San Francisco Giants
10-12% FAAB
It’s quite absurd when looking at Donovan Solano’s stats to start the year. Solano’s slashing .455/.475/.636 with one home run, eight runs, and 14 RBI. Solano’s rocking a .523 BABIP with a 34.2% line drive rate, holy smokes. Solano’s line drive rate is slightly up from last year at a 35.6% line drive rate. His Statcast batted ball data ranks slightly above average with a 40% hard-hit rate (61st percentile) and 90.1 mph average exit velocity (59th percentile). Although Solano’s hot start appears to be BABIP driven, his .355 xBA (96th percentile), .544 xSLG (82nd percentile), and .468 wOBA (99th percentile) look promising. Ride Solano’s hot start, especially for batting average.
Dylan Moore, SS/OF, Seattle Mariners
8-10% FAAB
Dylan Moore’s off to a hot start for the Mariners. In ten games, he’s hit three home runs, eight runs, six RBI, and three steals while slashing .293/.326/.610. Moore’s rocking a 56% hard-hit rate (94th percentile), and a 97.2 mph average exit velocity on LD/FB (No. 33). The batted ball profile appears to back up the hot start. Likely more of a deeper league add, but worth grabbing with the hot start.
Ben Gamel, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
2-5% FAAB
Ben Gamel is a sneaky deep league add even if the current production does not jump off the page. In ten games, he’s hit two home runs, four runs, and seven RBI while slashing .222/.263/.500. Gamel made adjustments to his batted ball profile with an increase in line-drive rate (40.9%) and a drop in ground ball rate (27.3%). He’s had a career 24.1% line drive rate and a 44.9% ground ball rate. Gamel is also pulling the ball almost 6% more with a 36.4% pull rate.
His strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are also up, and that could mean he’s more aggressive at the plate. Gamel’s expected stats on Statcast indicate he’s likely underperforming with a .291 xBA (86th percentile) and a .519 xSLG (81st percentile). He’s also rocking a 13.6% barrel rate ranking in the 89th percentile.
Starting Pitchers
Pablo Lopez, SP, Miami Marlins
12-15% FAAB
Pablo Lopez pitched well against the Orioles last Tuesday while throwing five innings, allowing two hits, zero runs, zero walks, and seven strikeouts. Lopez finished his second start of the week on Sunday. He threw five innings, allowed two earned runs, four walks, and four strikeouts. He’s increased the usage of his changeup (his best pitch) and decreased the usage of his four-seam fastball. Last season, Lopez’s changeup resulted in a 17.2% swinging-strike rate and a 29.7% whiff rate. He’s a command-focused pitcher with a sweet changeup. Add Lopez as a streaming pitcher or backend starter on fantasy baseball teams.
Tyler Mahle, SP, Cincinnati Reds
10-12% FAAB
Tyler Mahle appears to have added a slider and ditched the curveball. He’s throwing the new slider 26.3% of the time at 86.2 mph and used to throw his curveball 23.1% of the time at 80.5 mph. It’s a small sample across two starts, but the slider has a 20% swinging-strike rate, and the curveball used to result in a 10.6% swinging-strike rate last year. In two starts, Mahle’s thrown ten innings, ten strikeouts with a 1.80 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Mahle’s a streaming pitcher that could provide more with the pitch mix change.
Tyler Mahle, Filthy 86mph Slider. 😷 pic.twitter.com/1VC7q4j3qZ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 28, 2020
Alec Mills, SP, Chicago Cubs
10-12% FAAB
Last week, we suggested Alec Mills as a waiver wire add. He’s a repeat on this list as a deep league streaming pitcher candidate. He threw seven scoreless against the Royals on Monday and allowed three hits and three walks with four strikeouts. Mills does not miss a ton of bats but will provide decent ratios.
Randy Dobnak, SP, Minnesota Twins
8-10% FAAB
Randy Dobnak ended up in my late-round sleepers article up on the site. In three starts, Dobnak tossed 15 innings, nine strikeouts, a 0.60 ERA, and a 0.87 WHIP. He is a ground ball pitcher with a 68.2% ground ball rate this year. Last year, Dobnak ended with a 52.9% ground ball rate. Although his walk rate is up to 7.1%, he typically limits walks with a 4.2% walk rate in the majors last year. Add Dobnak, especially in deeper leagues.
Kyle Gibson, SP, Texas Rangers
8-10% FAAB
Sneakily, Kyle Gibson has pitched well with 13 strikeouts in 11 innings with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. Gibson projects for a two-start week against the Mariners and at the Rockies. Gibson pitching one game against the Mariners should be worth it even though he’s pitching at Colorado as well.
Although it’s a small sample, it’s worrisome that his swinging-strike rate dropped to 9.2% so far. Gibson’s slider is his best pitch, but the swinging-strike rate on his slider has decreased. In 2019, he had a 26.7% swinging-strike rate with the slider, and it’s down to 15.6% in 2020. According to Statcast, the whiff rate on Gibson’s slider has also dropped from 52.6% in 2019 to 34.8% in 2020. If you need a streaming two-start pitcher, then he’s worth an add in deeper leagues.
Yusei Kikuchi, SP, Seattle Mariners
8-10% FAAB
Yusei Kikuchi notably made changes and reworked his delivery in the offseason. In 2020, Kikuchi has thrown 15.1 innings and 16 strikeouts with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. On the surface, it looks terrible, but his 1.89 FIP and 2.45 xFIP mean Kikuchi’s likely in for regression to the mean. He’s added a cutter according to Baseball Savant, although on Fangraphs, it looks like it’s categorized as a slider. The cutter/slider has resulted in a 12.7% swinging-strike rate, a 37% whiff rate, and a negative 17 degree launch angle. That means he’s missing bats with the cutter/slider while also eliciting a ton of ground balls with an 85.7% ground ball rate in 2020. Add and stash Kikuchi in deeper leagues.
David Peterson, SP, New York Mets
8-10% FAAB
Mets pitching prospect, David Peterson pitched well against a tough Braves offense last Sunday, allowing three earned runs with one walk and eight strikeouts in six innings. Peterson faced the Marlins on Saturday and pitched five innings, allowed two earned runs with three walks and three strikeouts. He mostly uses a three-pitch mix with a fastball (47.2%), slider (27.9%), and changeup (21.8%). It’s a small sample, but his fastball (sinker) results in a 21.1% swinging-strike rate with the slider resulting in a 19.6% swinging-strike rate. Peterson’s worth an add in most leagues.
Relief Pitchers
- Anthony Bass, RP, Toronto Blue Jays – Add Anthony Bass where he’s available since he’s the Jays closer.
- Ryan Pressly, RP, Houston Astros – With Roberto Osuna likely needing Tommy John surgery, Ryan Pressly received an opportunity to close on Thursday. Pressly did not record an out while giving up three hits, two earned runs, and one walk. He’s still the closer, so add him where available.
- Jairo Diaz, RP, Colorado Rockies – Jairo Diaz recorded multiple saves last week while giving up two hits and two runs in one of them. Diaz expects to receive the majority of saves for the Rockies.
- Rowan Wick, RP, Chicago Cubs – Roster Resource shows the Cubs with a closer committee, including Rowan Wick, Jeremy Jeffress, and Kyle Ryan. Wick recorded a save on August 3 while Ryan recorded a save on August 4. With Wick in a closer committee, he’s the last priority for relief pitcher waiver adds.
