Fantasy Breakdown: How Carson Wentz Changes The Colts Offense

Carson Wentz Fantasy Value 2021

A new era has arrived in Indianapolis. Except it’s more of a reunion in a new location than an introduction. Carson Wentz was traded to the Colts primarily because of the chemistry and success under former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich. Reich is entering his fourth season as the Colts’ head coach and has fielded a competitive team each year despite lackluster quarterback play. After enjoying a 10-6 season under Andrew Luck in 2018, Luck’s sudden retirement weeks before the 2019 season forced Reich to pivot to Jacoby Brissett. A mediocre 7-9 season under Brissett led to the Colts front office signing veteran quarterback Philip Rivers to a one-year deal for the 2020 season, which resulted in an 11-5 record and a 27-24 loss to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Wild Card Game. Inserting Wentz into an offense already constructed to win games in the trenches with a strong defensive unit should excite everyone on the team. However, no Colts position group is happier to have a mobile, big-armed quarterback than the tight end room. 

Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson are “trending toward” being ready for Week 1, per @mortreport pic.twitter.com/s5mT0sdCff

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) August 11, 2021

Tight-End-By-Committee (TEBC)

You are likely familiar with the term running-back-by-committee (RBBC), which describes a backfield that has at least two, if not more, running backs that earn a similar workload. The context of touches in a committee typically varies between first-down play-calls versus third-and-long play-calls, which is largely dependent upon the offensive personnel packages used by Reich and new offensive coordinator Marcus Brady. 11 personnel, meaning one running back and one tight end, was a frequent package that Reich called during his previous tenure as Wentz’ offensive coordinator. During Wentz’s rookie season in 2016, Trey Burton, Jordan Matthews, and Zach Ertz finished within the top five in targets per snap percentage. The following year in 2017, Wentz delivered an MVP-caliber performance that was cut short due to an injury suffered late in the season. His performance was made possible by the emergence of Zach Ertz, who led the team with targets per snap percentage (14.1%) after being buried behind Trey Burton and Jordan Matthews the previous year.

During this two-year span where Wentz was at the top of his game with Reich calling the plays, all three tight ends saw prominent usage based on their involvement whenever on the field. Indianapolis has a deep and underrated tight end group led by veteran Jack Doyle, massive Mo Alie-Cox, and fourth-round rookie Kylen Granson out of SMU. The 23-year old tight end has reportedly impressed during training camp and projects to be the athletic route-runner the Colts hoped Trey Burton could maintain. 12 personnel will likely be a frequent package to bulk up the line of scrimmage for Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines to take advantage of, allowing them to attack running lanes with a vengeance. Granson could see most of his snaps in 11 and 12 personnel, as Doyle and Alie-Cox are better suited as block-first tight ends. By sealing one side of the line and allowing Granson to use his slim, athletic frame to function as an H-back sent in pre-snap motions, Reich can get creative with the offense, allowing Wentz to funnel targets to the tight end group just like he did in Philadelphia. Expect Alie-Cox and Doyle to see numerous red-zone targets due to their 6’6 and 6’5 hulking frames creating mismatches on jump balls in the end zone. Even better, 13 personnel can be deployed as a heavy set in short-yardage and goal-line situations, creating a threat where at least one of the three tight ends peels off on a route, keeping the defense at bay. 

Frank Reich is a miracle worker

since 2018, games w halftime leads:

34 – BAL (Lamar Jackson)
31 – KC (Patrick Mahomes)
30 – NO (Drew Brees)
29 – IND (Luck + Brissett + Rivers)

now, to reclaim Carson Wentz

How does he do it?https://t.co/Bs3obGp5Kx

How they could surge late: https://t.co/wotvWfObas

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 11, 2021

Not every team has the luxury of using three tight ends that possess a competent receiving skillset. Every coach stresses the importance of blocking, which is how most tight ends earn their teammates’ respect and an increased target share. Granson may not be asked to block as much, but he will need to prove to Reich that he isn’t a liability. Blocking in space against non-Power 5 defensive linemen isn’t the same as the top-tier strength, speed, and experience brought by all defensive linemen in the NFL. Assuming Granson secures a role within the offense, Wentz will feel like he’s back in 2016 with an arsenal of receiving options at the tight end position, forming the league’s most underrated TEBC in 2021. 

Wentz Resurgence? 

A healthy dose of skepticism already surrounded Carson Wentz after a disappointing 2020 season. After training camp began in Indianapolis, the latest attempt at securing a franchise quarterback suffered a setback, as Wentz aggravated a bone in his foot that required surgery. Reich was familiar with the injury from his time in Philadelphia and expressed optimism that seemed a bit unrealistic at the time. Fast forward a week later, and reports indicate Wentz is recovering quickly post-surgery and shaping up to be under center at home against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1. Three-time All-Pro G Quenton Nelson also went down with a foot injury but is also trending towards playing in the home opener after undergoing a procedure on August 3rd. The loss of these two players would’ve been a significant blow to the Colts’ championship aspirations, so the energy and positive momentum generated from their quick recovery should not be overlooked. 

The Colts’ offense has quite a deep pool of talent outside of the tight end position, starting with the healthy return of third-year wide receiver Parris Campbell and second-year wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who has many projecting a breakout campaign after a strong finish to his rookie season. Seventh-round rookie wideout Mike Strachan has also been producing quality snaps during the first two weeks of camp, meaning the perceived lack of wide receiver depth in Indianapolis is a narrative to abandon in 2021. Let’s not forget Wentz threw for over 4,000 yards with close to a 4:1 TD/INT ratio in 2019 with Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, and Boston Scott earning the highest targets per snap percentage.

The 2021 Colts have a markedly better wide receiving corps and a bevy of great tight end depth but the crown jewel of Reich’s offense is second-year running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor ranked third in total rushing yards in 2020 (1,169) and tied Antonio Gibson for the sixth-most rushing touchdowns (11) despite being held to under 10 carries in three of his starts. Factor in Taylor missing another game due to COVID-19 and it’s pretty remarkable that he put up the numbers he did during his rookie season. Granted, the Colts have the second-best offensive line entering 2021, per Pro Football Focus. The targets were capped for Taylor (41) due to the emergence of Nyheim Hines, who had the highest targets per snap percentage (19.4%) by a significant margin over T.Y. Hilton (13.5%), resulting in 64 receptions, 482 yards, and four touchdowns. Call the running back duo ‘thunder and lightning’ or ‘power and finesse’ but Wentz will certainly elevate his passing statistics via designed dump-offs, screens, and shovel passes on motion sweeps. 

Wentz is currently going undrafted in half-PPR formats, valued as the QB25 after finishing as the QB22 in 2020 after throwing for under 2,700 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions. His true passer rating, which excludes dropped passes and unpressured throwaways, ranked 30th at 70.6. This was worse than Mitch Trubisky, Cam Newton, Daniel Jones, and Alex Smith. There is virtually no way Wentz repeats such a dreadful performance in 2021 on a team built to win now with his former offensive coordinator calling the shots as head coach. He also carries decent rushing upside as a mobile quarterback, reaching his career-high in rushing touchdowns (5) while averaging an impressive 5.3 YPC on 52 attempts in 2020. Wentz’s comfort level under Reich, playing behind a top-two offensive line, and the amount of depth at each skilled position make me comfortable relying on him as a quality streaming option in a one-quarterback league or as a mid-range QB2 in a SuperFlex (two-quarterbacks) league.