Will Fuller Fantasy Forecast 2021
I have old-man rocking chair moments from time to time and I’m going to give you a quick look at recent Twitter things that just get my rankers up.
- Taek – I mean is it so much to ask people to spell the word correctly? all the letters are there and everything.
- Szn – Player x goes down and next thing you know, pundits are popping off everything about obscure player y having a whole season devoted to themselves. SMH.
- 2021 is the season of body parts, particularly RBs wearing shorts. I guess we should all be inspired because a grown man who gets paid to use his legs a lot has large muscles. Sheesh
- Visors – Willis Mcgahee was cool wearing a visor…and that’s it. The whole Darth Vader look appealed to me initially and I was into it, for like a couple of seasons. The utility is fairly obvious, but Twitter has just gone mad over it like it bestows some superpowers or something. The MCU influence has gone too far.
- Swag – everything is swag these days. I read this morning that Cooper Kupp has swag toes because he dragged them inbounds on a sideline throw. Sigh.
I’ve spilled enough negativity. Do you know what I love? Will Vincent Fuller V.
Will Fuller was WR8 through 11 games last season, cementing himself as a WR1 in his first season being the featured guy and I’m confident that he would have maintained that status if he had only read the ingredients on that power bar. Ok, I don’t know why he was suspended and I don’t know if it had anything to do with his performance last season, but we finally had a glimpse of what he could be and it was glorious. He was outpacing DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, and he was less than .5 ppg away from WR6 when he was told to take a seat. He’s out week 1, but will he be Robin to Waddle’s Batman or will he continue his WR1 status in Miami?
Injury: The Dude is just Too Fast
“The history is lengthy. Since entering the league, Will Fuller V has missed 20 games due to injury. That’s a whopping 32% of games in which he’s on the sideline and not on the field. Even more shocking is that since his rookie campaign, Fuller has been on the final injury report (either questionable, doubtful or out) 41 of a possible 62 times.”
Holy Shazam! Not much else to add onto this, but his knee injury appears to be behind him, players routinely come back from groin tears with no discernable impact, and he did make it through 2020 unscathed. He will continue to be susceptible to soft tissue issues, such as hamstring pulls, and reports are that he’s limited in training camp already, but I’m not scared for this season though and you shouldn’t be either (fairly certain I read that General Custer said the same in one of my history books).
Waddle Wow Factor
I’m going to make this super short. Will Fuller played alongside one of the most dominant WRs over the past 10 seasons so he’s used to competing for targets. Even so, Will averaged at least 6.4 targets per game played in four of his five seasons; he produced 10+ fantasy points over 50% of games played (27 of 53), and he pulled in 5 or more catches 38% of the time. Those are not elite numbers, but those include his anemic rookie season and more importantly when he was clearly the nr 2 option alongside Deandre Hopkins. In comparison, Will eclipsed 12 points per game in 9 of 11 contests (cleared 15+ in 7 of 11); registered at least 5 catches in a game 7 of 11; and scored at least 1 TD in an identical 7 of 11 games as a WR1 in 2020.
I’m picking Jaylen Waddle for dynasty purposes, but for managers that have a win-now window, Will is the WR that makes the most sense. Granted, Will is on a one-year deal so he isn’t the future in Miami, but he still has a bright future as a solid low WR2 fantasy option. Will is bigger, a more polished route runner, has better separation ability, and can take the top off defenses just as well, if not better than the younger Waddle. Additionally, Mike Gesicki most likely has a better fantasy-producing season in 2021 than Jaylen simply due to Tua Tagovailoa‘s inexperience and growth glide slope.
Tumultuous yet Tantalizing Tua
I have a league mate, Derek Reeves, that occasionally puts out a product I’ve labeled, D’s Bs, as in Derek’s Box Score or another possible use of the abbreviation BS, but it’s basically Derek doing some high-brow analysis using only Box Scores. The bit he did on Jalen Hurts last season was brilliant. In true Ds Bs fashion, here is what we can take away from Tua’s rookie season:
- Passed for 1,814 yards and 11 TDs in 10 games.
- Registered 6.3 yards per attempt on his passes. Of note, Tua’s YPA in his rookie season was the 21st worst average of any QB with at least 200 attempts from 2015-2020. Of those QBs, only 4 are still starting in the league and two of those were traded this past season (Ben Roethlisberger is the other QB). Tua’s 9.75 YPC was even more abysmal, ranking 9th worst over that same time span. Fuller can run all the routes, but he is certainly not his best playing a possession receiver at or near the line of scrimmage.
- Tua did average 11.17 and 11.26 per attempt at Alabama. Talent-driven argument? Yes, absolutely, and I think that’s the crux of Tua’s yips in throwing it down the field. Who in Miami was he throwing it too? Devante can’t separate and let’s not forget his first 4 seasons were terrible, ok? Preston was broken again, leaving a contested-catch Devante and Jakeem Grant. I’d be looking to dump it off also.
- Limited to under 200 passing yards in 5 of 9 games he started.
- Played his statistically best game against KC, topping 300 passing yards and rang up 3 total TDs.
- Benched against Denver, NY Jets, and Las Vegas.
- Aired it out week 17 against Buffalo, hitting his season highs in attempts, completions, yards, and interceptions. However, he was 5 of 17 on deep passes and went 2 of 7 for 11 yards and an interception in the RZ.
- Devante Parker averaged 8 targets, 4 receptions and 60 yards a contest with Tua.
There have been instances where the sheer talent of the WR was able to carry a bad QB to elite status (see Josh Gordon’s magical 2013 season with Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden), but this isn’t one of those. Tua must be better this season and he must be able to throw intermediate and deep passes routinely and accurately for Will, and Waddle for that matter, to produce fantasy-friendly numbers.
It’s difficult to extrapolate last year’s results and make a sound quantitative argument concerning Tua’s 2021 projections based on such a small sample size, but qualitative? You bet!
- Tua had off-season surgery and COVID limited preparation and development. Unless you’re Justin Herbert, rookie QBs tend to need this critical time. Oh, Tua was hurt – see Joe Burrow’s struggles thus far with his repaired knee.
- Coach Flores tried to tether a line between winning and breaking in a rookie QB and he failed…miserably. Tua didn’t get his first start until week 7 against the Los Angeles Rams. Seriously? Aaron Donald was salivating. Tua was benched multiple times during games and DNP against the NY Jets of all teams. It made sense to throw a rookie out against a top 5 defense and then bench him completely against one of the worst?
- Ryan Fitzpatrick’s shadow loomed large over Tua and the teams’ drive to make the playoffs and the pressure appeared to be too much for Tua to handle. Instead of learning how to read defenses and execute the playbook, he was too busy trying to not get yanked. No wonder he was tentative about throwing deep and making mistakes.
- Devante Parker and Jakeem Grant are not Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. Devante Parker is a nice WR for a gunslinger, but not for a young QB who won’t throw contested 50/50 balls and that is what Devante is–a WR who can’t separate and wins at the point of attack. Even so, Devante recorded a 7/116 performance in week 17 with Tua when he finally decided to let it rip.
This has quickly moved to a referendum of Tua vice the wonders of Will Fuller, but Tua’s step forward is the key to how well Will plays this season. Will is clocking a clean WR36 in dynasty ranks and WR35 ADP and that seems fair from a dynasty perspective, but from a redraft view or a team competing hard this year and next in a dynasty format, I think he moves up to mid-20s for both categories.
Can Tua feed two WRs that produce fantasy-relevant numbers? Coach speak in Training Camp thus far says yes, but we won’t know for sure until the games start. But if I had to wager on which WR rises to the top in 2021, I’d go all in on Will Fuller V.
