Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 10

By Corbin Young | November 11, 2021

Fantasy Football Sleepers

In Week 10, we have the Bears, Bengals, Giants, and Texans on their bye week. We have several fantasy-relevant players on three of four teams, plus Brandin Cooks of the Texans. As we noted in the Week 9 Winners, Losers, and Takeaways, Week 9 seemed like an odd week with the Bills losing to the Jaguars and the Broncos blowing out the Cowboys in Dallas. Admittedly, the Week 9 sleeper recommendations stunk, and hopefully, we’ll turn that around in Week 10. 

Week 9 Review

Unfortunately, several unexpected injuries derailed the Week 9 sleepers from DeVante Parker and Tua Tagovailoa. Even Tyrod Taylor returned, and Davis Mills didn’t play, but Taylor looked brutal in his first game back with three picks, 5.6 yards per attempt, and 240 passing yards. In the Dolphins and Texans game, it ended up quite underwhelming outside of Jaylen Waddle, who hauled in eight of ten targets for 83 receiving yards. The Dolphins fed Myles Gaskin 20 carries, yet he mustered 34 rushing yards and one touchdown. Gaskin led the team in running back touches, with Salvon Ahmed only garnering four carries for six rushing yards and zero targets. However, the entire Dolphins offense lacked efficiency with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. 

On a positive note, Hunter Renfrow, Darnell Mooney, and Boston Scott produced decently. Scott rushed ten times for 40 yards, yet Jordan Howard led the Eagles with 71 yards and a touchdown. Even Kenneth Gainwell rushed for a touchdown with two carries for three rushing yards. Renfrow finished second on the team with nine targets as he hauled in seven for 49 yards and one touchdown. The Bears offense came on late after six points through three quarters and 21 in the fourth. Darnell Mooney scored their only two offensive touchdowns with a 15-yard rushing touchdown and a 16-yard receiving touchdown. Justin Fields played efficiently with 10.7 yards per attempt – his second-highest YPA of the year plus set a season-high in passing yards at 268. 

The Titans barely needed much on offense since their defense picked off Matthew Stafford twice and sacked him five times. We expected the Titans to play from behind, but that flipped upside as they played from ahead. That said, Jeremy McNichols only rushed seven times for 24 yards and hauled in all three targets for 11 receiving yards. The Titans split the running back touches three ways with Adrian Peterson and D’Onta Foreman, but McNichols played in the two-minute offense, which should provide value as a pass-catcher. 

Matt Ryan at DAL

Outside of Week 8 against the Panthers, Matt Ryan threw for a healthy chunk of passing yards with an average of 340.3. Ryan also totaled six passing touchdowns and one pick plus a rushing score in Week 9. That turned into three top-14 performances in the past four games. If we extend the recent stretch even further, Ryan boasts five top-14 performances over the past six. 

The Cowboys allow the 7th most fantasy points and 12th most passing yards to quarterbacks with an average of 287.5 pass yards per game. Like past years, Ryan relies on volume with the 10th most Team Pass Plays Per Game (38.0) yet 6.9 (No. 20) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. However, Ryan ranks first with 77% Play-Action Completion% and fourth with a 66.7% Red Zone Completion%. The Falcons will likely play from behind, and it should end up as one of the higher-scoring games.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. DET

The ceiling isn’t as high for Ben Roethlisberger as in past seasons, and he hasn’t shown the ability to support the pass-catchers outside of rookie Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson. Unfortunately, Chase Claypool keeps trending downwards. However, similar to Matt Ryan, it’s about the volume instead of much efficiency. Although the Lions allow the 9th fewest passing yards with 258.9 per game, they allow the highest net yards per attempt at 8.3 in front of the Jaguars at 7.5. Roethlisberger should reach 250 passing yards with some efficiency for potential top-15 performance at quarterback. 

Devonta Freeman at MIA

The Thursday night recommendation for Devonta Freeman connects with Latavius Murray missing Week 10. If Murray plays, then lower expectations for Freeman. As of Wednesday, Murray missed practice and thus making him questionable for Thursday. In Week 9 against the Vikings, Freeman reached a season-high in snap share (55.1%), carries (13), and total yards (83) with a touchdown for a top-10 fantasy performance. 

The Dolphins rank middle of the pack with 111 rushing yards per game (No. 16), but Freeman should garner most of the Ravens running back opportunities, especially in the receiving game. Although Le’Veon Bell finished with 11 rushing attempts, Bell only ran two routes with three targets over the entire four-game sample. Meanwhile, Freeman runs the most routes of the Ravens backs with 15 apiece the past two weeks with 12 targets over the past four games. Thankfully, Freeman uses his blockers effectively with a 70.0 (No. 2) Run Blocking Efficiency (RBE) compared to Bell’s 38.6 (No. 32) RBE and Murray’s 47.5 (No. 24) RBE. Overall, Freeman rates as a sleeper to earn about 12-15 touches with a chance to land in the endzone. 

Devin Singletary at NYJ

If Devin Singletary can’t get it done against the Jets and potentially without Zack Moss, then drop Singletary. We’re half kidding on dropping Singletary in deeper leagues, but the matchup plus the increased opportunity should mean Singletary serves as an RB3 with RB2 upside. The Jets allow the sixth-most rushing yards (133.3 per game) with the most fantasy points per game (31.2). Granted that the Colts running backs last week boosted fantasy points scored, but the takeaway remains – the Jets struggle against running backs. 

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Unfortunately, Moss is going through the concussion protocol after a head injury in Week 9. That should mean more opportunities for Singletary, like in the first couple weeks of the season with Moss inactive. We especially want to highlight the snap share, routes, and targets for Singletary in Week 1 and 2, then Week 9. Look for a game similar to the first two weeks, where Singletary relies on efficiency. Singletary still boasts a 35.1% (No. 16) Juke Rate, 258 (No. 37) Yards Created, and 2.74 (No. 32) Yards Created Per Touch. Fire up Singletary in Week 10. 

Kenyan Drake vs. KC

The pass-catching role for Kenyan Drake over the past few weeks looks interesting. In Week 9, Drake finished third on the team with eight targets (17.4%) as he hauled in six receptions for 70 receiving yards. During Week 6 and 7, Drake caught all five targets for 49 receiving yards combined. Although it’s nothing massive, we could see a scenario where the Raiders play in a competitive divisional game against Kansas City. It also projects as a high-scoring matchup. 

Kansas City gives up the 12th most rushing yards per game at 121.8 and allows the 9th most receptions to the position (6 per game). Drake proved he’s uber-efficient and productive in the receiving game with 24 (No. 12) receptions and 257 (No. 9) receiving yards with 1.13 (No. 7) fantasy points per opportunity. Even Drake’s 2.34 (No. 5) Yards Per Route Run, 10.7% target share (No. 19), and 10.7 (No. 5) yards per reception look hopeful for a continued role in Week 10.

Cole Beasley at NYJ

In an odd loss to the Jaguars, Cole Beasley hauled in eight of 11 targets for a measly 33 receiving yards. After back-to-back top-12 receiving performances, Beasley reached double-digit fantasy points, but the whole Bills offense struggled. Beasley led the Bills in targets, with Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders trailing behind with eight targets each. He also leads all Bills receivers with a 25.2% target share during the past three games. Meanwhile, the target share for Diggs sits at 19.8% and Sanders at 15.3%, yet Sanders garners the most Air Yards at 392.

Since the Jets give up so much production on the ground, they only allow 149.1 receiving yards to the position. After an unexpected loss to the Jaguars, the Bills should bounce back against the Jets in a divisional matchup. Beasley boasts the 10th ranked Target Rate at 29.3% compared to season-long 21.9% (No. 30) target share. That indicates Josh Allen looks Beasley’s way a ton when he’s on the field. 

Hunter Renfrow vs. KC

Let’s go back to the well with Hunter Renfrow since he sits in a similar group as Cole Beasley. A slot receiver on a pass-heavy team that averages 39.0 (No. 7) Team Pass Plays Per Game with a 26.9% (No. 22) Target Rate compared to a season-long 20.8% (No. 35) target share for Renfrow. He’s uber-efficient with the receptions as he averages 5.6 receptions and 56 receiving yards on 7.5 targets per game. 

Although Kansas City allows the 9th-fewest receiving yards to the position (145.1 per game), the Chiefs’ defense averages the 3rd-most net yards per attempt (7.5) behind the Lions and Jaguars. Renfrow continues to boast the 4th-most target separation in the league at 2.37, which makes him an easy target for Derek Carr. As one of the highest projected matchups of the week, look for Renfrow to feast on the Kansas City secondary as a WR3 with upside. 

Van Jefferson at SF

Unfortunately, the season-long metrics don’t look great for Van Jefferson with a 14.3% (No. 66) target share, 23.5% (No. 51) Air Yards Share, and a 16.8% (No. 85) Target Rate. However, Matthew Stafford targets Jefferson deep with an average target distance of 13.5 (No. 12). Stafford also boasts high efficiency with 8.9 (No. 2) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. Jefferson averages 6.7 targets per game with an average of 91.3 Air Yards over the past three weeks.

Unfortunately, Jefferson’s role hasn’t translated into production with 3.3 receptions and 57.3 receiving yards during those three contests. Jefferson serves as a deep-league sleeper that’s trending up in recent weeks against the 49ers. It’s not the best matchup since the 49ers allow the 8th-fewest fantasy points to the position, but look for Stafford and the Rams to bounce back after the loss to the Titans. 

Pat Freiermuth vs. DET

The rookie out of Penn State likely isn’t a sleeper much longer but rather a top waiver-wire pickup in past weeks. Pat Freiermuth finished as the No. 3 and No. 1 ranked tight end the past two weeks, partly due to three touchdowns combined. Freiermuth’s 23.6% (No. 14) target rate indicates Ben Roethlisberger looks his way when he’s on the field.

The rookie ran more routes the past two weeks, plus reached season highs with a 79.7% and 71.2% snap share in Week 8 and 9. Freiermuth already moved himself up into the TE1 group with touchdown upside since he’s eating up short-area targets with a 6.6 (No. 20) Average Target Distance. Fire up Freiermuth with confidence in Week 10 against the Lions. 

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Corbin Young
Corbin is passionate about fantasy baseball and football. He loves diving into and learning about advanced metrics. Corbin is a Mariners and Seahawks fan living in the Pacific Northwest. Corbin's other hobbies are lifting weights, cooking, and listening to fantasy sports podcasts.
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