Fantasy Football Sleepers: Week 3
Nothing gets us fantasy football managers more excited than uncovering a valuable sleeper prospect to roster and insert into our lineups. The term “sleeper” is frequently used but most of the time, it’s applied to players who are likely not available on waiver wires in competitive leagues. Sleepers, when applied appropriately, are the non-obvious players who present either a high floor or ceiling, while getting overlooked by other fantasy football managers in a specific league. We’ve looked at rostered percentages, using 60 percent or less as our benchmark, to properly identity sleeper prospects to target heading into Week 3 of the 2023 fantasy football season.
NFL fantasy analyst Matt MacKay is back with his latest Week 3 sleepers to grab off of waiver wires, analyzing each prospect in half-PPR scoring formats.
Jaylen Warren (RB – Steelers)
The gap is quickly closing between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The latter looked much more explosive against the Browns in Week 2, hauling in four receptions on six targets for 66 receiving yards, plus six carries for 20 rushing yards. Cleveland’s stout defensive line didn’t open up many running lanes to expose, which forced Kenny Pickett to target Warren as a receiver out of the backfield. Plus, Warren played 42 percent of snaps with a 20 percent target share and 28 percent rush share, compared to 57 percent of snaps played by Harris. Warren is a low-end RB3 with RB2 upside entering a plus-matchup against the porous run defense of the Las Vegas Raiders, who just surrendered over 100 scrimmage yards to Buffalo’s second-year running back, James Cook, in Week 2.
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Zack Moss (RB – Colts)
Even if Anthony Richardson returns from concussion protocol for a Week 3 road matchup against Baltimore, Zack Moss is clearly the Colts’ preferred RB1. He handled a whopping 78 percent of rush attempts on 98 percent of snaps in Week 2, which was his first game of the 2023 season. Moss also garnered a 12 percent target share, catching all four passes for an additional 19 yards against Houston in Week 2. Baltimore has been tough against running backs, but Moss’ volume in a Shane Steichen-led offense makes him a high-end RB3 with RB2 upside to acquire.
Nico Collins (WR – Texans)
Nico Collins is quickly ascending with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud under center. The big-bodied wideout is entering his third year, which is usually a breakout year for young wideouts, so his outing against Indianapolis is encouraging to say the least. While Collins played fewer snaps than Tank Dell and Robert Woods in Week 2, he saw a 20 percent target share, converting nine targets into seven receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown. Jacksonville’s defense is good, but not elite, so if you manage to acquire Collins in PPR formats, he’s a low-end WR2 with low-end WR1 upside moving forward.
Adam Thielen (WR – Panthers)
After seeing only two targets in Week 1, Adam Thielen was peppered with them in Week 2, hauling in seven of nine targets for 54 yards and a late touchdown against a tough Saints defense. The veteran wideout is an asset, assuming he can stay healthy and on the field, functioning as another security blanket for rookie quarterback and No. 1 overall draft pick, Bryce Young. From a personnel standpoint, the Panthers’ offense is among the least talented, so Thielen should continue to develop a strong rapport with his young signal caller entering a Week 3 road trip against a Seahawks defense that both the Rams and Lions have gashed to start the season. Thielen is a high-end WR4 with low-end WR2 upside moving forward.
Hunter Henry (TE – Patriots)
Hunter Henry is one of the least discussed tight ends in the league. He’s recorded touchdowns in back-to-back games, while seeing a 13.5 percent target share across two games, tied for second on the Patriots behind only wideout Kendrick Bourne. Henry caught six of seven passes for 52 yards and a touchdown against an improved Dolphins defense in Week 2. He gets a stingy Jets defense in Week 3, however, they did surrender two touchdowns to Dallas tight ends in Week 2. Considering how volatile the tight end position can be in fantasy football, Henry is a mid-range TE1 with top-three upside rest of season.
Sam Howell (QB – Commanders)
During the first true road start of his NFL career, Washington quarterback Sam Howell finished Week 2 as the QB13, completing 27-of-39 pass attempts for 299 yards and two touchdowns against a talented Denver secondary. Howell struggled a bit against Arizona in Week 1, but appeared much more comfortable in Week 2. The Commanders’ ability to get OC Eric Bienemy from Kansas City appears to be paying dividends, especially for Howell, who gets to play one of the best defenses in the league, Buffalo, back in D.C. for Week 3. He may not be a viable streaming option against the Bills, but Howell gets the Eagles and Bears afterward, presenting better matchups. Grab Howell off of waivers as a plug-and-play high-end QB2 with QB1 upside moving forward in one quarterback fantasy football leagues.
