Fantasy Football Sleepers Week 9
With four teams on a bye in Week 9, including the Lions, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Washington Football Team, the waiver looks a bit more full than the previous week. Jimmy Garoppolo, Mike White, and Justin Fields finished as top-5 quarterbacks in Week 8. We never thought we would say that in 2021. Fantasy managers appreciated the Michael Carter breakout game for the second week in a row.
I’ve loved the receiving usage for Jeremy McNichols with a 10.8% target share (No. 20), 18 rec (No. 18), and 170 rec yards (No. 12), especially in the first 4 games.
I can’t get behind wanting to add Adrian Peterson in deep leagues…but maybe I should 🥴
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 2, 2021
However, Derrick Henry suffered a potentially season-ending injury, and Calvin Ridley stepped away from the game for mental health reasons. In a week full of emotions, highs, and lows, we’ll review Week 8 and look ahead to the Week 9 fantasy football sleepers.
Week 8 Review
Although Carson Wentz threw three passing touchdowns against the Titans, he relied on volume with 51 pass attempts yet only 231 passing yards for 4.5 yards per attempt. Unfortunately, Wentz threw a pair of interceptions, although he added 11 rushing yards on the ground. Heading into Monday Night Football, Wentz sat as the 11th ranked quarterback to potentially give him four straight top-15 performances. Against the Jets in Week 9, Wentz might land as a quarterback sleeper again.
My goodness, in what looked like a smash spot, Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos’ offense looked average. Bridgewater threw 213 passing yards with a decent 8.2 yards per attempt, but only one passing touchdown to Melvin Gordon. The Washington Football Team allowed the 2nd most passing yards (311.1 per game) and the most fantasy points to the position (24.8) heading into Week 8. With another week of Jerry Jeudy healthy, maybe Bridgewater fares better against Dallas in Week 9.
For the first time in forever – the Eagles played with a lead for three quarters while shutting out the Lions. Fortunately, Boston Scott smashed with 12 carries for 60 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Since the Eagles won 44-6, the team only threw 16 passes, so they targeted Scott once with a positive game script. Even former Eagle Jordan Howard came alive Halloween-style with two rushing touchdowns on 12 attempts for 57 rushing yards.
On the flip side, don’t ask about the Bills run game. Outside of the fourth quarter, the Bills and Dolphins played it close. Neither Devin Singletary nor Zack Moss garnered much in the running game. The Bills backfield continues to give us headaches. However, let’s monitor the seven targets (16.3%) for Moss with six receptions for 39 receiving yards. It looked like a friendly matchup, and I expected the Bills to come out firing against the Dolphins with some potential garbage time.
However, the sleeper call with Cole Beasley looked great with ten receptions on 13 targets (30.9%) for 110 receiving yards. Beasley led the Bills in all categories, with Emmanuel Sanders throwing up a donut. Given the passing volume, it’s safe to expect some inconsistencies with Beasley too.
Brandon Aiyuk had 44 yards on four receptions today, which doesn’t seem like much, but it was by far his best utilization game of the season.
Routes: 97%
Targets-per-route: 28%
Target share: 30%
Air yards: 29%
Yards-per-route: 1.6263% of targets were catchable (-13%)#CHIvsSF
— Context Matters (@dwainmcfarland) October 31, 2021
After that, it’s a bit ugly. Drop Robby Anderson at this point. Christian Kirk caught four of six for 46 receiving yards, but the Cardinals continue to spread it around with A.J. Green as well. Although Evan Engram caught a touchdown on Monday night, he got lucky with three receptions for 15 receiving yards on four targets. Even with the receiver injuries, Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney played, so the deep sleeper in Darius Slayton threw up a zero. Deebo Samuel left little to eat with 171 receiving yards, but hey, Brandon Aiyuk came alive with four of seven for 45 receiving yards. Not great for Aiyuk, but a positive sign heading into Week 9.
Week 9 Sleepers
Tua Tagovailoa vs. HOU
With the 5th most Team Pass Plays Per Game at 39.5, Tua Tagovailoa relies on volume. As expected, Tagovailoa struggled against the Bills with 205 passing yards, zero passing touchdowns, and one interception. Tagovailoa’s efficiency dipped with 5.3 yards per attempt compared to 7.0 and 7.3 in Week 6 and 7.
The Texans typically give up the most rushing yards with the 10th most passing yards (266.3/game). With the 7th best protection rate at 86%, Tagovailoa should provide efficient passing production against a weak Texans defense. There’s the potential for some garbage time production in the rushing game as the Texans allow the most rushing yards per game to opposing backs (129.3/game). However, Tagovailoa should provide a top-12 performance like in Week 6 and 7 against the Jaguars and Falcons.
Davis Mills at MIA
In any typical 1-QB league, there’s no reason to rely on Davis Mills. Outside of two weeks against the Patriots and Rams of all teams, Mills averaged 5.8 fantasy points per game. In Mills’ top-10 performances, he averaged 311 passing yards with five touchdowns and one interception combined.
In Davis Mills’ top-10 performances, he averaged 311 passing yards with 5 touchdowns and 1 interception combined.
The Dolphins allow the most passing yards to the position with 303.8 per game and the third-most fantasy points at 21.6.
🤔Deep-league sleeper?#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/BAspne7uID
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 3, 2021
Well, guess what – the Dolphins allow the most passing yards to the position with 303.8 per game and the third-most fantasy points at 21.6. In a game where the Texans will trail per usual with a -5.22 (No. 28) Game Script on the season, Mills should have the opportunity to pass a ton. Again, Mill ranks only as a sleeper in super deep 16-team leagues or Superflex formats, not a typical sized 1-QB league. Or maybe even a cheap DFS play.
Boston Scott vs. LAC
Last week’s sleeper hit in Boston Scott, rushed 12 times for 60 yards and two touchdowns. Scott edged Kenneth Gainwell with a 44.3% snap share for Scott and 31.1% for Gainwell. It’s safe to wonder how the usage shakes out in a game where the Eagles play from behind as they blew out the Lions on Sunday.
Eagles final HB snap count #PHIvsDET
Boston Scott 29
Kenneth Gainwell 20
Jordan Horward 16Out of 65 plays
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) October 31, 2021
Right behind the Texans, we have the Chargers allowing the 2nd most rushing yards to the position at 132 yards per game. The Eagles will split the rushing share between Gainwell, Scott, and Jordan Howard, who also rushed for 57 yards and two touchdowns. After Scott’s Week 8 performance, fantasy managers likely can’t sit him against the Chargers. Even if the Chargers find themselves ahead, Scott possesses the pass-catching role with a 7.6% target share in 2019 and 6.4% (No. 34) in 2020.
Jeremy McNichols at LAR
With Derrick Henry injured, Jeremy McNichols looks like the top back currently on the Titans’ active roster heading into the middle of the week. Even if Adrian Peterson takes on some of Henry’s rushing role, McNichols showed the ability to produce in the receiving game with a 10.6% (No. 19) target share with 21 (No. 14) receptions and 203 (No. 12) receiving yards.
In the limited role, McNichols proved he’s efficient with 5.0 (No. 9) True Yards Per Carry, 1.50 (No. 2) fantasy points per opportunity, and 2.86 (No. 2) yards per route run amongst qualified backs. Although the Titans may want to rely on the run, they’ll likely increase their passing volume, which sits at 33.1 (No. 22) Team Pass Plays Per Game. In a tough matchup against the Rams, the Titans may find themselves with a negative game script, meaning added passing opportunity for McNichols in the offense. Who knows, if the Titans don’t elevate Peterson from the practice squad, McNichols’ role could expand more.
Salvon Ahmed vs. HOU
Last week, we discussed Devin Singletary against a Dolphins defense that looked friendly or possible garbage time production. Maybe we’re falling into that trap once again. In Week 9, the Lions, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Washington Football Team have their bye week, so it leaves some fantasy managers desperate for running backs. The Texans allow the most rushing yards per game, and it all can’t go to Myles Gaskin, right.
The Texans allow the most rushing yards per game, and it all can’t go to Myles Gaskin, right.
In limited opportunity, Salvon Ahmed ranks 12th with 2.02 yards per route run, 21st in Juke Rate (31.1%), and 17th with 3.27 Yards Created Per Touch. pic.twitter.com/zIlV4OrxPF
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 3, 2021
Although Salvon Ahmed hasn’t produced any fantasy-relevant games yet, the sleeper recommendation comes on the backs of the matchup. A few advanced stats in Ahmed’s favor with the limited opportunity, he ranks 12th with 2.02 yards per route run, 21st in Juke Rate (31.1%), and 17th with 3.27 Yards Created Per Touch. Ahmed serves as a deep-league back.
DeVante Parker vs. HOU
It’s a risky play to stack all the Dolphins as sleepers in Week 9. The Dolphins average the 5th most Team Pass Plays Per Game, and DeVante Parker averages 8.6 targets per game. Parker’s 23.5% (No. 22) target share and 38.4% (No. 15) Air Yards Share indicate he garners the opportunity in a high volume passing offense.
The Dolphins average the 5th most Team Pass Plays Per Game, and DeVante Parker averages 8.6 targets per game.
Parker’s 23.5% (No. 22) target share and 38.4% (No. 15) Air Yards Share ➡️ No. 17 WOPR at 0.63 – a career-high in the 2021 small sample 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XtpuhfKxWO
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 4, 2021
In a tough matchup against the Bills, who allow the second-fewest receiving yards and fewest fantasy points to receivers, Parker hauled in eight of 11 targets for 85 receiving yards. Take it with a grain of salt, but against cornerback Levi Wallace, Parker scored 16.5 fantasy points (No. 18) when Wallace allows 6.9 fantasy points per game to receivers. Since the Texans allow the 6th most receiving yards plus the high volume and opportunity, Parker should smash in Week 9.
Hunter Renfrow at NYG
If you’re looking for a sleeper with consistency, look no further than Hunter Renfrow, who averages 5.4 receptions and 57 receiving yards per game. Although Renfrow’s 20.7% (No. 36) target share doesn’t look appealing, his 26.8% (No. 23) target rate indicates Derek Carr looks for him when he’s on the field. On a team that averages the 11th-most Team Pass Plays Per Game (38.0), Renfrow should provide another safe floor against the Giants, who allow 168.9 receiving yards per game – the 11th most.
Although Renfrow isn’t super efficient with 2.10 (No. 33) Yards Per Route Run, he garners a Target Separation of 2.71 (No. 3), which means there’s a healthy chunk of room between him and the nearest defender when the target arrives. That makes for an easier throw from Derek Carr and easy completion of a 74.5% (No. 8) catch rate for Renfrow.
Darnell Mooney at PIT
We’re going against the matchup here, as the Steelers allow the 11th fewest receiving yards (168.7/game) yet the 11th most fantasy points (24.5). It’s partly due to allowing nine touchdowns (No. 10) to receivers. The peripherals look great for Darnell Mooney, but we need more passing volume from Justin Fields. That’s gradually happening with 28.7 pass attempts per game compared to 25.9 (No. 32) Team Pass Plays Per Game on the season.
Mooney ranks 13th with a 26.1% target share and 23rd with a 34.7% Air Yards Share. However, it’s only yielded 4.1 receptions and 51.1 receiving yards per game. Hopefully, Fields continues to pepper Mooney with targets, with 17 of 22 coming in two out of the past three games. In those two games, Mooney averaged just under 14 fantasy points per game. During those same two games, Fields aired it out with an average of 323 Air Yards per game, even though it only yielded 174.5 passing yards. With Allen Robinson trending down, look for Mooney to serve as a deep-league sleeper for Week 9.
Tyler Conklin at BAL
It’s a gamble each week to find a streaming tight end that won’t hurt you. Often we’ll weigh the player’s usage versus the touchdown scoring efficiency – talking about you, Mo Alie-Cox. On a Vikings team that throws the 4th most Team Pass Plays Per Game at 39.6, Conklin boasts a 78.4% (No. 14) Snap Share, 14.5% (No. 14) target share, and 25 routes run per game.
The beauty of the tight end position involves Conklin ranking inside the top-12 with 27 (No. 10) receptions and 297 (No. 11) receiving yards for an average of 3.9 receptions and 42.4 receiving yards per game. Conklin’s 8.0 (No. 12) Yards Per Target and 1.70 (No. 19) Yards Per Route Run look intriguing. However, none of the other advanced stats pop for Conklin. Opposing offenses target the tight end position the 4th most (67), with the 3rd most receiving yards (545). Roll out Conklin as a tight end sleeper hovering around the top-15 in Week 9.
