Fantasy Football Sleepers
Week 9 Sleepers
Sam Howell (QB)
Washington Commanders vs. NE (34% Start)
Sam Howell has been a bit of a revelation this season. The expectations were low for Howell in fantasy circles and yet, after eight weeks, Howell sits as the QB8 on the season, scoring over 20 points in five of eight contests. Howell is also coming off his strongest showing in week 8, against the Philadelphia Eagles, throwing for 397 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, finishing as the QB1 on the week with nearly 40 fantasy points. His success also sparked production for nearly every relevant pass catcher, with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Logan Thomas, and even 30-year-old Jamison Crowder catching touchdown passes, with all scoring at least 13 points on the week. It is true that so far this season, Philadelphia has been a more fantasy-friendly matchup for quarterbacks than New England, but with the way Howell is playing, and how much he is passing, he could be quickly entering matchup-proof territory. Washington also just sent their two premier pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat to San Francisco and Chicago respectively, meaning it could be easier for teams to score on Washington, leading to Howell having to keep pace, possibly airing it out even more than we’ve seen. If your quarterback is on bye or injured, Howell provides some sleeper appeal in week 9.
FantasyData Subscriptions
Become a member at FantasyData and get access to the rest of this article and the industry’s best fantasy football subscription available!
Derek Carr (QB)
New Orleans Saints vs. CHI (43% Start)
Derek Carr has posted three straight 300-yard games, with two top-10 finishes at the position, and yet he is still getting very little respect in fantasy circles. Carr is trending in the right direction, coming off a week 8 matchup that saw him throw for multiple touchdowns and post his best fantasy point total of the season. With playmakers like Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed at his disposal, and further removed from the shoulder injury that limited him in past weeks, it was only a matter of time before Carr started to produce. Carr has also been very good at protecting the ball with only four interceptions on the season, so if his yardage and touchdown totals continue to increase and his security and efficiency with the ball remain the same he could find himself in the top-10 at the position weekly. Regardless, Carr is a strong play against a Bears defense that is allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Bears did just acquire defensive end Montez Sweat from the Commanders to help bulk up their defense and improve their pass rush, but he will likely be limited this week if he plays at all. Carr should be able to pick the defense apart with his weapons. Carr is a solid streamer for those struggling at the position.
Darrell Henderson (RB)
Los Angeles Rams vs GB (37% Start)
On Wednesday, Henderson was signed to the active roster after taking up residence on their practice squad for the last couple of weeks. This move should surprise no one. Over the past two weeks, Henderson has been Los Angeles’s lead back, garnering 34 total touches for 151 yards and one touchdown. To his credit, Royce Freeman has been plenty involved and performed well, but it is clear that the Rams coaching staff trusts Henderson. Freeman has averaged more yards per carry than Henderson, so there is a chance that over the next couple of weeks Freeman will get more work, but until we see that happen, we have to assume Henderson is the back to own. Still, some caution would be prudent. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is likely out this week with a UCL sprain in his right thumb, which would mean Brett Rypien would take over lead duties. This could mean more stacked boxes than the Rams running backs are used to, but it should also mean more work for them, which may balance things out. Either way, Henderson will be a great flex play against the Green Bay Packers who are allowing the seventh most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Kareem Hunt (RB)
Cleveland Browns vs. ARI (53% Start)
It’s possible that what we have in Cleveland is the dreaded three-man committee, which is historically one of the most frustrating things to deal with in fantasy. In a perfect world, a clear lead back would emerge. We could even handle a pairing of Hunt and Jerome Ford or Hunt and Pierre Strong. In that situation, the two running backs usually have clearly defined roles and both hold some fantasy value. But in week 8, all three backs saw a significant number of carries. Still, Hunt got nearly all the work inside the five-yard line, a theme that has been in play for several weeks now. If the distribution of carries continues then I’d prefer to take a chance on the running back who is getting the high-value touches that give him a real chance of scoring a touchdown. This is especially true against an Arizona defense that is allowing the third most fantasy points to running backs and that has allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season, including three to Gus Edwards in week 8. There’s a chance that with Ford being a week further removed from the ankle injury that sidelined him, Hunt takes on a smaller role, but there’s just as good of a chance that even with a smaller role, Hunt gets into the end zone once or twice and has the better fantasy output. Hunt has RB2 potential this week.
Zack Moss (RB)
Indianapolis Colts vs. CAR (41% Start)
Don’t get me wrong. Jonathan Taylor’s role in this offense is continuing to grow and it is Taylor, not Moss, who is the lead back for the Colts. However, Moss is still the RB4 overall and is maintaining a significant role even with Taylor getting a heavy workload. Many predicted this after Moss’s early season success. What may surprise some though is that over the last four games, Moss is still a top-5 running back, averaging over 95 scrimmage yards per game, with 10 receptions and four total touchdowns. It seems that Moss has a clear role and is not going away any time soon. Moss may be too productive to be considered a sleeper, but with a starting percentage of 41%, he certainly qualifies, and in a week that will see him face the Carolina Panthers, managers would be wise not to forget about him. Carolina has allowed over 100 rushing yards in every game and has allowed multiple rushing scores in all but one. This plays right into the hands of the Colts offense, which has been very run-heavy over the last few weeks. Even if Taylor continues to get a ton of work (and he will) there should be enough opportunity in this favorable matchup for both to produce. Moss is a decent RB2 and a very strong flex option in week 9.
Demario Douglas (WR)
New England Patriots vs. WAS (11% Start)
In week 8, Kendrick Bourne left the game with what turned out to be a season-ending ACL tear, opening the door for any number of wide receivers to step up. With DeVante Parker also likely out this week with a concussion, there’s a good chance that wide receiver will be rookie Demario Douglas. Up to this point, Douglas’s fantasy output has not been setting the fantasy community on fire, but from week 7 to week 8 Douglas’s snap share went from 62% to 77%. He was also targeted seven times in week 8. I get it. Hitching your wagon to a New England wide receiver who will be catching passes from Mac Jones requires more antacid than is advisable, but someone is going to have to catch passes on Sunday and my money is on Douglas. If he is the first read on Sunday, he could be in a great spot to produce. Washington is ranked 29th against the pass and has allowed the second most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Patriots are not an electric offense, but Douglas has seen 13 targets and two carries over the last two weeks, and should continue to see enough targets and find enough space to exploit this soft secondary.
Tank Dell (WR)
Houston Texans vs. TB (20% Start)
After a promising start to the season, Dell has cooled off a bit. Since seeing 17 combined targets in weeks 2 and 3, Dell has seen four or fewer in his last three games. In week 8, Dell was targeted four times, catching three passes for 16 yards. But Carolina is a top-six unit against opposing wide receivers so expectations should’ve been tempered for all Texans pass catchers in that game. While the usage over the last few weeks is concerning, it’s important to note that Dell got hurt in week 5, missed week 6 due to that injury, had a bye week in week 7, and then C.J. Stroud was surprisingly underwhelming in week 8. So some of Dell’s lack of production should be taken with a grain of salt. Now C.J. Stroud and Co. get to face a Tampa Bay defense that allows the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the ninth most to wide receivers. This should allow the passing game of the Texans to get back on track, and while Tampa Bay is focusing on stopping Texans’ X receiver, Nico Collins, Dell could find himself with an opportunity to take advantage of a great matchup. With Dell, there is always going to be an element of boom-or-bust, but in week 9 it should be more boom than bust.
Rashid Shaheed
New Orleans Saints vs. CHI (21% Start)
Oftentimes when discussing potential sleepers we are looking at upside. Rashid Shaheed is the best example of a boom-or-bust receiver we have this season. In week 1, he finished as a top-11 wide receiver. Then he had four straight games where he finished outside the top-50 at the position, and over the last three weeks, he’s had finishes of WR6, WR55, and WR4. Every single week that saw him finish as a top-12 wide receiver, Shaheed caught a touchdown of 19 yards or more. In his three biggest finishes he failed to see more than six targets, and in week 8 (his best finish) he only saw three targets, but caught all three for 153 yards and a score. Shaheed’s production is dependent primarily on his big-play ability. Still, with four teams on bye and receivers like Christian Kirk, Brandon Aiyuk, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, and Amon-Ra St. Brown unavailable, the upside of Shaheed could be worth the risk. Shaheed has the fourth most deep targets this season and has the highest ADOT (average depth of target) in the league. Against a Chicago Bears defense that has trouble stopping anyone, Shaheed could once again find himself in the top-12 at his position.
Cade Otton (TE)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. HOU (4% Start)
Admittedly, this one is a bit of a deep sleeper, but one that could pay off in week 9. Otton is one of several tight ends who, more often than not, have to score a touchdown to be fantasy-relevant. Still, it may be worth taking a chance on Otton in week 9 if your usual starter is on bye or injured. First, Otton enjoys a robust 95.7% snap share. Secondly, he runs a route on 85% of Tampa Bay’s passing plays. His targets per route and average depth of target could be better, but in an offense that is struggling to get anything going on the ground, Otton could serve as an extension of the run game. On the docket in week 9 is a Houston defense that has been fairly solid against the pass, but has proven it can be exploited by tight ends. Some of the elite tight ends they’ve faced have had solid games against them, while players like Kyle Granson and Tommy Tremble both found the end zone. Otton has also been more involved the last two weeks with six targets each week. That has yet to translate to any sort of fantasy ceiling but has provided a safe floor of six to seven points. If Otton fails to score against the Texans he will likely finish in that range again, but if he does find the end zone, a top-12 finish isn’t out of the question.
Trey McBride (TE)
Arizona Cardinals vs. CLE (40% Start)
One more performance like what we saw in week 8, and McBride will not be able to be discussed as a sleeper anymore. He’ll be an automatic starter. Against the Ravens, McBride received 14 targets, catching 10 for 95 yards and a touchdown. He finished as the TE2 on the week with 20.5 fantasy points. No matter how you look at it, McBride’s first shot at having the starting job all to himself was a success. Coming into the NFL, McBride was considered by many to be the most talented tight end in the 2022 draft class, but up until now, he has lacked the opportunity to provide any sort of consistent fantasy production. That could change with Zach Ertz set to miss at least the next three weeks with a quadriceps injury. There is a risk in starting McBride this week. Cleveland has been great against tight ends, allowing the fewest points to the position through eight weeks. Also, the Cardinals just traded quarterback Joshua Dobbs and will be turning to rookie Clayton Tune for one week, with Kyler Murray expected to make his 2023 debut in week 10. Dobbs targeted the tight end position at the third highest rate in the league, which could go down with Tune under center. There’s also the question of the quality of those targets and the likelihood that Arizona will lean heavily on the run game. Dobbs threw fewer than 30 times just once this season. There’s a real possibility Tune does that in week 9. Still, after how McBride looked in week 8, he has real sleeper appeal and a decent shot of finishing as a TE1 this week.
