Potential Positive Touchdown Regression in 2022
FantasyData: Touchdown Regression
Statistical regression can be looked at in a variety of ways. The regression I look at in this article is the regression of fantasy football data points toward the mean (average) of a chosen data set. More simply put, I am looking at touchdown percentage in 2021 for players at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end position compared to historical averages over the last 10 seasons. I will be looking at the 2021 top 36 fantasy RBs, top 36 fantasy WRs, and top 24 fantasy TEs, all in half-point per reception format.
The purpose of this analysis is to find players at each position who had an abnormally low TD% in 2021 compared to the historical average at the position, who may be in line for positive TD regression in 2022 back toward the historical mean.
As with any statistical metric, TD% viewed without additional context can be misleading. For example, newly-signed Dolphins’ RB (and former Cardinals’ RB) Chase Edmonds didn’t score his first TD of 2021 until Week 8 and finished the season with only two rushing TDs and a rushing TD% (total rushing TDs divided by rushing attempts) of 1.3%. Granted, Edmonds missed five games in 2021, but his TD% ranked 41st among RBs with at least 100 attempts, and the “per attempt” nature of TD% accounts for missed games. The 10-year average for TD% among top 36 RBs (2012-2021) is 3.13%, almost three times Edmonds’ 2021 rate. If looking only at TD%, this may look like an outlier on the negative side of the mean and would indicate a higher probability of a TD% increase for Edmonds in 2022. While Edmonds could very well score a TD on more than 1.3% of his carries in 2022, the cause of his lower TD% becomes clear with additional context.
The Cardinals did not re-sign Kenyan Drake before the 2021 season, so initial speculation included a big role for Edmonds, who had played a more complementary RB role up until that point in his short career. Edmonds was somewhat polarizing in the fantasy community once Drake headed to the Raiders, with some seeing a greatly expanded role and fantasy success, and others concerned about his size (even though his size/speed comparison is Aaron Jones), him never having been a primary RB before and the likelihood the Cardinals would bring in a free agent. This is exactly what happened when the Cardinals signed free agent RB James Conner, widely seen as the more likely “goal-line” RB when forecasting the 2021 season. And this is what played out. Edmonds’ role did increase compared to previous seasons, but with very little work in the red zone. Conner became the goal-line RB, leading the league with a 7.5% TD% and finishing only behind the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor in carries inside the 10- and 5- yard lines.
This example with the 2021 Cardinals backfield is not intended to be a significant or unknown revelation. Edmonds is now a Miami Dolphin and whether Conner can sustain that high of a TD% is a separate conversation. The purpose is to drive home the point (with an obvious example) that when looking at specific metrics in an attempt to predict the probability of future results, you have to ask additional questions. Just because something is below average does not mean it will automatically regress toward the average, so you have to look at causes for the sub-par data and potential obstacles standing in the way of positive regression. Is there a logical trail of breadcrumbs pointing toward an explanation, as with the Edmonds example, or does it look more like a potential outlier for that player?
Starting with WRs, in this article I’ll look at historical TD% rates along with a closer look at one player at each position (WR, RB & TE).
Wide Receiver Historical TD%
To arrive at an average TD% for comparison I looked at the top 36 WRs (0.5 PPR) for the last 10 seasons (2012-2021). Using the simple TD% calculation (receiving TDs divided by targets), the following table shows the average TD% for each of the 10 seasons as well as the 10-year average. I broke the numbers down to the top 36, top 24, and top 12 for each season (and 10-year average).
You see the following average WR TD% over the 10-year span:
- Top 36 WR: 5.7%
- Top 24 WR: 5.9%
- Top 12 WR: 6.4%
Now that we have an average based on a decent sample size, we can use that to compare individual TD% of WRs from the 2021 season to first determine who underperformed in this category. Can we reasonably expect a potential positive regression to the mean in 2022?
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Scott Rinear
My name is Scott Rinear and I live in Seattle, Washington with my wife, two daughters and golden retriever (Jasper). Our biggest passion as a family is camping. We camp at least 10 times a year. My biggest passion personally is fantasy football. I have been playing fantasy football since 2006 and started producing content in 2020. I am a lifelong Seahawks and Mariners fan and will continue my fandom for the SuperSonics once they return to Seattle. I love everything about football, especially analytics and data analysis, and I’m a sucker for a good spreadsheet. I am a proud member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA).