Fantasy Football WR Advanced Metrics Report: Week 12

D.J. Chark (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Chark is already barely on the fringes of WR3 territory but is almost certainly going to continue to be negatively impacted by the promotion of Mike Glennon to Jacksonville’s starting QB. Constantly playing from behind, the Jaguars are 7th in team passing plays per game and that volume has resulted in solid but unspectacular numbers from Chark. Chark is top-25 in air yards (830), red-zone targets (18), deep targets (17), and contested catch rate (80%) but has been hampered by poor quarterback play. Chark is way down as the WR62 in target accuracy, which grades the quality and accuracy of each incoming target. Even in an extremely favorable matchup against a bottom-10 Cleveland secondary, Chark is barely start-worthy thanks to his (lack of) supporting cast. 

Tim Patrick (Denver Broncos) – Subpar QB play hasn’t had nearly as much of an impact on third-year Denver wideout Tim Patrick, who caught 5-of-8 targets for a career-best 119 yards against Miami in Week 11. That was Patrick’s third game since Week 4 with triple-digit yardage and he’s topped double-digit fantasy points in six of Denver’s last seven contests. Ranking 10th in the NFL with 18 deep targets and 15th with a 10.1 yards per target average, Patrick has developed into QB Drew Lock’s favorite downfield weapon, but he’s not a one-trick pony. Patrick has snagged 4-plus balls in seven of the nine games he’s played. 

Marquise Brown (Baltimore Ravens) – Few young wide receivers came with as much preseason hype as Hollywood Brown, but 11 weeks into the 2020 season and Brown isn’t even a top-50 fantasy wideout. So what’s the problem? First, volume is down but not significantly. Brown’s 58 targets rank 36th, his target share and snap rate rank 31st, and he’s run over 28 routes per game, which is 44th. Brown is still being targeted deep, as well. He’s 12th in average target distance, 7th in air yard share, and 4th with 19 deep ball targets. The issues don’t actually appear to be Brown but are with QB Lamar Jackson, who is simply misfiring far more frequently than he did during his magical 2019 season. Jackson’s QB Rating when targeting Brown is a merger 76.2, which ranks 9th among all wideouts. Brown’s 67.2% catchable target rate is 98th and Jackson’s target accuracy when throwing to Brown ranks 103rd. 

Sterling Shepard (New York Giants) – Shepard is now the only wide receiver in the league who has posted a perfect, 100% True Catch Rate. 81% of the passes that Daniel Jones has sent towards Shepard have been catchable, and Shepard has come down with all 34. Shepard’s overall 81% catch rate also ranks fourth and he’s come down with 5-of-6 red-zone targets– a solid rate considering Shepard missed four games. While Shepard is also doing a good job getting himself open with 2.11 yards of separation (11th among WRs), his hands have accounted for 6-plus grabs in each of the four games he’s played since returning from a toe injury. With a Week 12 road trip to Cincinnati to face a haggard Bengals’ secondary on deck, Shepard should be considered a solid WR3/flex play. 

Corey Davis (Tennessee Titans) – Opposing defenses are, rightly, trying to smother teammate A.J. Brown, but Corey Davis is making them pay. Even though the Titans rank just 27th in team pass plays per game and Davis isn’t even in the top-50 for snap share, he ranks 11th with 0.51 fantasy points per route run. QB Ryan Tannehill boasts a 120.9 QB Rating (16th) when targeting Davis, and much of that damage is being done far downfield. Davis ranks 16th with 10.0 yards per target and 6th with 2.48 yards per route run. In Week 12, Davis will likely be covered mostly by Indianapolis CB Rock Ya-Sin, who has allowed 31 receptions on 45 targets. Even though the matchup overall isn’t great for the Titans’ passing attack, Davis remains a sold WR3/4 play. 

Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) – Higgins has exceeded expectations in his first season but odds are his rookie campaign has already peaked. Higgins is 11th in air yards (11) and 4th with 19 deep ball targets but no wide receiver with more than 20 contested target opportunities has a worse contested-catch rate than Higgins’s 31.8%. And all those deep balls and tight-window throws were coming from Joe Burrow. The dropoff from Burrow to Brandon Allen is going to be dramatic and severe. It’s a huge downgrade for the entire Cincinnati passing attack and Higgins will now be a risky fantasy option, even in an appealing Week 12 matchup with a subpar New York Giants’ defense. 

Jamison Crowder (New York Jets) – QB Sam Darnold returning to practice is certainly good news for the Jets’ passing game, particularly for slot receiver Jamison Crowder. Between the myriad injuries both Crowder and Darnold have suffered this season, the pair have only played in two games together, but they were phenomenal performances for Crowder. In those games (Weeks 1 and 4) Crowder snagged 14-of-23 targets for 219 yards and a score, averaging nearly 21 fantasy points per game. Even though he’s been in and out of the lineup, Crowder’s 25.8% target share still ranks ninth. Slot receivers have fared very well against Miami all season, so if Darnold is back under center, Crowder looks like a good bet to command 8-10 targets and have another excellent fantasy outing.

Mecole Hardman (Kansas City Chiefs) – Hardman still ranks 4th among all wideouts with 2.55 fantasy points per target but it looks like the sophomore speedster has fallen out of favor in Kansas City. Drops have been an issue. Hardman’s 11.8% drop rate is the third-highest in football and led to Hardman getting out-snapped by Byron Pringle last week 40-11. Speaking of Pringle, the club placed him on IR which should give Hardman a temporary reprieve. At least until Sammy Watkins (hamstring) is activated. If Watkins misses Week 12, Hardman should get plenty of playing time against a Tampa defense that looked terrible on Monday Night Football. 

Rashard Higgins (Cleveland Browns) – The Browns are dead last in team pass plays per game but there still might be some value in Cleveland’s passing game in Week 12. The Jaguars have allowed an opposing wide receiver to surpass 100 receiving yards in each of their past five games. It’s perimeter wideouts who are doing the most damage to Tre Herndon and a secondary that will also be without Sidney Jones. With Jarvis Landry absorbing most of the slot snaps, Higgins will be Cleveland’s main outside option and he is capable of exploiting this matchup. Higgins ranks 19th in yards per route run,15th in average targets distance (14.9), and 2nd with 12.6 yards per target. The Browns will certainly rely on their ground game here but that could open up some downfield play-action opportunities for Higgins and Khadarel Hodge. 

Andy Isabella (Arizona Cardinals) – With Larry Fitzgerald unavailable due to COVID, Andy Isabella will take over as Arizona’s slot receiver against New England. 77.9% of Isabella’s 134 snaps have come from the slot, but unlike Fitzgerald, Isabella brings an added speed definition to an already potent Cardinals’ passing attack. Isabella ran a 4.31-second 40-yard dash and boasts a 15.4 yards per target average, which is ties for 11th in the NFL. And QB Kyler Murray isn’t afraid to target Isabella downfield. 9 of Isabella’s 23 targets this season have been deep ball attempts. With the Patriots looking more vulnerable than ever, Isabella is an enticing boom-or-bust WR3/4 play this week, with a high ceiling.