Fantasy Football WR Advanced Metrics Report: Week 9

A Deep Dive into FantasyData’s Advanced Efficiency Metrics 

The second half of the unpredictable 2020 fantasy football season kicks off after a wild Week 8 that saw stunning upsets, huge fantasy performances, and more key injuries. The WR Advanced Metrics Report from last week looked at some injured players that could help down the stretch, but with more contributors now unavailable, staying proactive is as important as ever. 

It’s knowing which players to acquire for this week or for a playoff drive that is key to ensuring success. Using FantasyData’s Advanced Efficiency Metrics goes beyond the basic box score and offers up a deeper look at players who could be on the verge of a breakout, or a breakdown. 

This data is not exclusive to wide receivers. Eric Moody’s weekly dive into the running backs helped predict some solid values last week. For now, we turn back to the wide receiver position as we try to navigate bye weeks and injury bugs to decipher some interesting Week 9 tidbits. 

Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints) – Despite being decimated by injuries throughout the receiving corps and an often porous defense, the Saints sit at 5-2 ahead of their crucial Week 9 showdown with Tampa Bay. Thomas, who hasn’t played since Week 1, returned to practice last week and could be back in the lineup. And his presence couldn’t come at a better time as the Saints have had no success throwing the ball deep and have seen a steep decline in efficiency. Tre’Quan Smith leads all Saints’ wideouts with 2.07 fantasy points per target, but that’s only good enough for 53rd among qualified wide receivers. Insert Thomas (18th in 2019) and Emmanuel Sanders (21st in 2019) back into the lineup and we should see stark improvements in Drew Brees’s effectiveness. Thomas led all receivers last season with 1,725 yards and had 17 receptions of 20-plus yards. No Saints’ wideout has more than five such grabs so far in 2020.

Antonio Brown (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – After sitting out the first half of 2020, Antonio Brown is now eligible to play and is expected to suit up just in time for the Buccaneers’ prime time matchup against the division rival Saints. Brown, 32, hasn’t been a full-time player since 2018 but was still an elite player in his last season with the Steelers. That year, Brown was second in the league with 169 targets and ranked 6th with a 17.9 Hog Rate. Brown also averaged 1.92 fantasy points per target, which is a figure that would put him firmly in WR3 range in 2020. Chris Godwin (finger) was a full participant in practice and is tentatively expected to man the slot. That would free up Brown to potentially lock up the other outside spot opposite of Mike Evans, but it’s still unknown how many snaps he’ll play. Brown still looked like his old self in his one game of action in 2019 and by most accounts has kept himself in great shape. Looking at the data, it looks like Brown has plenty left in the tank and debuting on national tv should add an extra bit of moxie. Fantasy managers who held onto Brown all-season should probably feel pretty good about the upside they’ll get out of starting Brown as a WR3/4 in Week 9. 

Juju Smith-Schuster (Pittsburgh Steelers) – Brown’s former teammate Juju Smith-Schuster has looked like his old self over the past two games. In that span, Smith-Schuster has hauled in 16-of-22 targets and averaged 15.6 PPR points per week. Smith-Schuster is also the only remaining NFL wideout with more than 30 targets that has a perfect 100% True Catch Rate. Juju is back in the overall top-30 in season-long scoring and has a chance to quickly regain WR2 status if he can maintain his momentum.

Zac Pascal (Indianapolis Colts) – With T.Y. Hilton (groin) expected to miss a week or two, some patient Hilton owners have asked how the Colts will replace Hilton, who throughout his career has acted as the team’s main deep threat. The thing is- maybe the Colts already have. Hilton has been one of the biggest mid-round fantasy disappointments a70nd looking at FantasyData’s metrics, teammate Zac Pascal has been a more efficient and effective player.

Not only has Pascal played more snaps, he’s been targeted farther downfield than Hilton and has been 25.1% more productive in terms of fantasy points per target. It’s not that Pascal has been a consistent weekly producer–he enters Week 9 as the WR70 in PPR scoring–it’s just that he’s simply been better than Hilton, the WR84. Instead of holding on to Hilton in the hopes that he’ll rekindle some of yesterday’s magic, it’s time for fantasy managers to cut bait and Pascal is one of many readily-available options that are simply better right now.

Mecole Hardman (Kansas City Chiefs) – The Chiefs are doing a great job getting Hardman open on screen passes and letting him make huge plays with his elite run-after-catch abilities. Hardman only ranks 57th in the league with an average of 9.0 average target distance, but the second-year speedster is leading the NFL with 8.5 yards after catch per reception. Hardman already has 8 career touchdowns from 30-plus yards out, which is No. 1 in the NFL dating back to the beginning of the 2019 season. Hardman’s volume hasn’t always been the most consistent, but there’s enough weekly ceiling evident to consider him a strong WR3/4. 

Nelson Agholor (Las Vegas Raiders) – Agholor was a Week 8 dud but it’s hard to utilize a deep-threat wide receiver in a game that had winds gusting over 50 miles-per-hour. When the over/under for the Raiders/Browns game plummeted over 8 points, it should have been a good indicator to bench the Las Vegas wideouts. Agholor still leads the NFL with a 19.5 yards per catch average. He also ranks 17th with a 13.5 average target distance and still qualifies as the overall No. 2 wide receiver with 3.1 fantasy points per target. Agholor’s 82% snap rate over the Raiders’ last five games puts him back in WR4/FLEX territory in Week 9 against the Chargers. 

Russell Gage (Atlanta Falcons) – Calvin Ridley exited Week 9 early with a foot injury. After Ridley left the game, Gage rekindled some of the magic his showed in the Falcons’ first two games. With Atlanta scheduled to have a Week 10 bye, the most likely course of action will be for the club to rest Ridley and give him two weeks off to heal his foot. Gage should be the main benefactor of those abandoned targets. QB Matt Ryan trusts Gage, who has just as many red-zone targets this season as Julio Jones (9). Gage has also out-performed Ridley in contested-catch rate and looks like a good bet to absorb 7-plus targets against Denver. 

Quintez Cephus and Marvin Hall (Detroit Lions) – Kenny Golladay is going to miss some time with a hip injury. When Golladay missed the opening two games of the 2020 season with a hamstring ailment, it was fifth-round rookie Quintez Cephus who saw most of the action in Golladay’s spot. In those two contests, Cephus hauled in 6-of-13 targets 87 yards. Marvin Hall came off the bench last week and posted 113 yards on seven targets. Most of that production came in garbage time. We’ll likely see a split, with Cephus having the size that might give him the edge as a better perimeter option. With QB Matthew Stafford a late addition to the COVID list, this looks like a situation to avoid, even with a tasty matchup against a shoddy Vikings’ secondary on deck.