We experienced unfortunate injury news for two top fantasy football players in Cam Akers and Michael Thomas. Jody Smith wrote up an article about the Akers injury that you should check out.
This all stems from the original injury in September that robbed #Saints WR Michael Thomas of most of his 2020. It simply never recovered. https://t.co/KOfinnZyYl
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) July 23, 2021
On Friday morning, news broke that Saints top receiver Michael Thomas underwent surgery on his ankle in June with a timeline of roughly four months. That potentially puts Thomas out until the end of October, assuming no setbacks. In looking at the Saints schedule, they have a Week 6 bye week with a Monday Night Football matchup against the Seahawks on October 25. Assuming Thomas either returns against the Seahawks or in November, that gives him roughly 10-12 weeks of potential fantasy production with the 17-game season.
Per FFPC ADP, Thomas went as the WR9 at pick 27. He holds an almost identical ADP of 26.5 on Underdog as WR9 as well. We expect his ADP to drop a bit, but we will see how far it will fall. If he falls in the range of WR24-32 in ADP, I would consider drafting and stashing Thomas. I don’t typically like to have injury optimism for players, but Thomas is an elite talent when healthy.
Who Replaces Michael Thomas?
Short answer – no one can replace Michael Thomas. The notable receivers and pass catchers on the Saints include Tre’Quan Smith, Adam Trautman, Alvin Kamara, and Latavius Murray. Outside of those players, the Saints could sign a free-agent wide receiver like Golden Tate, Dez Bryant, Julian Edelman, or even Tim Patrick.
In 2020, Tre’Quan Smith ranked No. 72 with 7.9 and No. 74 with 7.1 fantasy points per game in 2019. Last season, Smith provided one WR1 week with WR3 production or worse 93% of the time. Back in 2019, Smith finished about the same with one WR2 week and WR3 numbers or worse in 91% of his games played. The Saints offense runs through Kamara and Thomas, then the tight end as a third option, so take some of this data with a grain of salt.
In seven games over the past two seasons, where Tre’Quan Smith played without Thomas, unsurprisingly, Smith earned more opportunities and produced slightly better.
Over the past two seasons, Smith produced similarly with Drew Brees at quarterback via the RotoViz Game Splits App. However, Smith lacked the opportunities since he typically serves as the fourth or fifth option in the Saints offense. That said, using the game splits with and without Michael Thomas gives us a better idea of what to expect.
With Brees at quarterback, Smith averaged 11.44 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A) behind Kenny Stills and Jared Cook. It appears that Jameis Winston would pair better with Smith, given Winston’s history of a decent Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. However, neither Winston nor Taysom Hill will provide the type of passing efficiency that Brees boasted. In 2019, Brees averaged 8.6 AY/A (No. 2) and then 7.8 AY/A (No. 8) in 2020. Winston averaged 6.6 AY/A (No. 17) in 2019 with the Buccaneers.
Alvin Kamara’s Stock Rises
The most notable player to benefit from the absence of Michael Thomas involves Alvin Kamara. Without Thomas, Kamara averaged almost 31 fantasy points per game with more rushing and receiving production.
Kamara already goes as the RB4 behind Derrick Henry, but one could argue Kamara should go in front of Henry, especially in PPR leagues. However, the quarterback battle between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill provides reasons for concern as a step down without Brees. Regardless, we’ll bank on Sean Payton trusting his best offensive weapon in Kamara, particularly to begin the 2021 season.
Adam Trautman SZN
Heading into his second season, Adam Trautman is a sleeper tight end to target in fantasy football drafts. At Dayton, Trautman amassed a 38.1% College Dominator (97th-percentile) with 916 receiving yards and 14 receiving touchdowns in his final season. Trautman’s 20.6 Breakout Age ranked in the 66th-percentile with an 11.05 Agility Score (95th-percentile), which means Trautman holds the ability to miss tackles.
In the past two seasons, Jared Cook ranked 5th and 15th in fantasy points per game. Cook was efficient, evidenced by his 18.9% touchdown rate in 2020 and 20.9% touchdown rate in 2019. We see the same trends in Production Premium, an overall efficiency metrics on PlayerProfiler – Cook ranked No. 1 (44.9) in 2019 and No. 2 (22.8) in 2020. Often efficient pass-catchers pair with efficient quarterbacks, and Brees falls into the efficient quarterback group with a 15.2 Production Premium (No. 7) in 2020 and 24.5 (No. 3) in 2019.
Other Free-Agent Receivers
A few notable free-agent receivers include Alshon Jeffery, Tim Patrick, Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald, Julian Edelman, and Dez Bryant. Even Dede Westbrook and Danny Amendola stand out. Jeffery didn’t initially land on the free-agent list, but he seems like an intriguing option for the Saints.
With the Broncos last season, Patrick had a seven-game stretch where he averaged 14.1 fantasy points per game in Week 3 – Week 11. The other options outside of Westbrook all head into the 2021 season with an age range of 31 years old to 38 years old in Fitzgerald. Both Shepard and Crowder fit a possession-type receiver role with their respective teams with some uncertainty after adding rookies in Kadarius Toney and Elijah Moore.
Conclusion
Based on the current Saints roster, Alvin Kamara should see an uptick in opportunities and production. Then Tre’Quan Smith and Adam Trautman should gain opportunities in the passing game as well. The past two seasons, Jared Cook provided efficient production while paired with Drew Brees. If Jameis Winston takes over the starting quarterback job, it should bode well for Trautman since he often targeted his tight ends with the Buccaneers. Even without the injury to Thomas, Trautman’s stock is rising in redraft leagues as a potential top-12 tight end.
Tre’Quan Smith’s production improved without Michael Thomas over the past two seasons as well. Let’s see if Smith takes a step forward with the assumption that he earns a higher target share than in past seasons.
The wild card involves the Saints signing a free-agent wide receiver in Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant, and others mentioned earlier. If that happens, Kamara is unaffected, and Trautman takes a tiny hit. However, we expect Trautman to take on a role similar to Cook with a 12-14% target share and touchdown scoring opportunities. Based on who the Saints add at wide receiver, the only ones that could threaten Smith’s target share include Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate, and potentially fantasy viable ones via a trade.
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