Outperforming ADP Fantasy Players in 2021
Every season there are at least a few players that are under drafted based on their ADP. These players might not be the sexiest names, but these are the types of players you should target in your drafts to win the value battle. I’ve combed through the current, up-to-date from FantasyData ADP to find you, players, at each position whose production will far exceed their ADP. Most of these players can be drafted well after players with sexier names, but the point of your draft is to build a winning roster, not a pretty one.
Kirk Cousins,(QB – MIN)
Sometimes it’s hard to put into words why a player should be considered a value. This is not one of those times. Kirk Cousins is being drafted as the QB22, even though he finished as the QB12 in PPG in 2020, QB18 in 2019, and QB16 in 2018. That’s right, a player that just finished a QB1 season is being drafted as a back-end QB2 this year. Even his worst season in the past three seasons. Either I’m underestimating the impact of losing Kyle Rudolph from the Vikings offense, or I am missing something. Three rookie quarterbacks (Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance) go off the board before Cousins, which makes sense in a dynasty, but not so much in a redraft format. Despite outscoring both players on a per-game basis and both quarterbacks looking utterly washed last year, Cousins is being drafted after Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan. He’s also going off the board after Deshaun Watson, a player we’re not even sure sees steps on the field in 2021. The Vikings did get a new offensive coordinator, but Klint Kubiak did spend the last two years as the Vikings quarterback coach, and the team is expected to keep the same scheme that Klint’s father, ex-offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak ran. The Vikings return Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook in their same roles as last year, with Irv Smith Jr. upgrading to the departed Kyle Rudolph. I can’t see anyway short of injury, Cousins doesn’t finish as a top 15 quarterback in 2021.
David Montgomery, (RB – CHI)
After finishing the 2020 season as the RB6 in points per game, David Montgomery has garnered little respect entering the 2021 season. He’s currently drafted as the RB16 after several players I would gladly draft him over, CEH, Joe Mixon, and Josh Jacobs. As good as the Chiefs offense is, it won’t matter if Clyde Edwards-Helaire can’t improve on nearly every aspect of his game from his rookie season. He was inefficient as a receiver, goal-line runner, and just above average as a pure rusher. Joe Mixon has yet to truly pay off on the hype that joined him when he entered the league, and as much as I like Jacobs, he has to contend that Jon Gruden is adamantly opposed to using him in the passing game. Some fantasy players will try to discount Montgomery’s 2020 season based on his strength of schedule and Tarik Cohen missed most of the year due to injury. Montgomery certainly took advantage of playing against poor run defenses, averaging 22.38 PPG during the final six weeks of the year, and to that, I say, so what? Would the community prefer that Montgomery not have absolutely dominated in those weeks. You want players on your roster who take advantage of advantageous situations, which is exactly what Montgomery did. His 2021 strength of schedule provides the reason for optimism as well, as he gets to face one of the easier schedules based on strength of schedule.
In 12 games without Tarik Cohen playing last season, Montgomery saw an increase in rushing attempts, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and most importantly, fantasy scoring, per Dynasty League Football. He averaged a respectable 12.5 points per game with Cohen on the field and a near-elite 19.1 in the 12 games without Cohen. Cohen was placed on the PUP to start the pre-season, and there’s been no real updates on his status of late. There’s also the non-zero chance that even when Cohen does eventually make it back to the field, he won’t be 100%, or that after nearly a full season of giving Montgomery a true bell-cow workload and watching him succeed that Matt Nagy realizes his best chance at winning is feeding Montgomery instead of forcing touches to a scat back.
Darrell Henderson, Jr. (RB – LAR)
Darrell Henderson was going off the board as the RB21 before the Rams trading for Sony Michel and will certainly fall further in upcoming drafts. After Michel was acquired by the Rams, Twitter was split and leaning towards the idea that Michel would steal a lot of work from Henderson. There are a couple of reasons to think that might not be the case. First is the draft capital the Rams gave up in the trade, a 2022 fourth-rounder, and a 2023 sixth-round draft pick. This isn’t exactly a haul and doesn’t force the Rams to give Michel touches to justify the capital expended to acquire him. Instead of trading for a starter, it appears the Rams traded for a player to be a better backup than the unknown Xavier Jones and Jake Funk. Second, there’s the fact that Sean McVay came out and said that this move would have little impact on Henderson.
Sean McVay on Sony Michel:
“Wanted to make sure that we got somebody else that’s played in big-time games.”
“Darrell’s still going to have a very big role. Doesn’t really change the outlook for him.”
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) August 26, 2021
At no point during his professional career has Michel done anything to point to him being a successful starting running back in the NFL. Henderson’s profile, including his receiving ability, is superior to Michel’s, who’s been used as a two-down back during his time in the NFL. Running back production, more than any other position is a function of volume. With Michel as his only legitimate competition for touches, there’s no reason to think that Henderson can’t produce a top 16 scoring season. Henderson might not have the build to average 25-30 touches per week, but he does have the three-down skill-set that could allow him to see up to 20 opportunities (rushing attempts + targets) per week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – PIT)
Juju Smith-Schuster’s ADP (WR34) is a product of what happens when a player fails to continue to produce at an elite level. After the departure of Antonio Brown, and finishing as the WR9 in 2018, big things were expected from Smith-Schuster in 2020. Between injuries to Ben Roethlisberger and his own injuries through Smith-Schuster had a disastrous 2019 season finishing as the WR65 in PPG. The stink from that season has failed to disperse, despite his WR23 finish last year. With Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson also seeing healthy target shares it’s understandable to be a bit hesitant with where to draft Smith-Schuster, but both players were on the roster last season and that didn’t stop him from producing as a WR2. There’s reason to believe that he could easily improve on that finish as well. Roethlisberger struggled to start the 2020 season with anything deep, and Smith-Schuster was relegated to a glorified dump-off role. His 6.5 yards per targets and 8.6 yards per reception were by far the lowest of his career. Entering the 2020 season Smith-Schuster averaged 9.4 yards per target and 13.9 yards per reception. With Roethlisberger another 12 months removed from shoulder surgery we can expect him to continue his late 2020 season trend of increased air yards per attempt which can only boost Smith-Schuster. Juju was targeted 128 times last season (15th most) and his 97 receptions ranked ninth overall last year. Even without any regression Smith-Schuster can still produce as a low-end WR2, with just a touch of regression to the mean in yards per target Smith-Schuster could easily move into top 15 scoring range, lapping his WR34 ADP.
Hayden Hurt (TE – ATL)
After the Falcons spent the fourth overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft on tight end Kyle Pitts I left Hayden Hurst’s fantasy prospects for dead. Hurst was a disappointment in his first year in Atlanta if you look at his overall TE15 PPG finish. More than anything though Hurst just failed to be consistent. He did put up eight top 10 scoring weeks and finished in the top 10 each of the final three weeks of the season. The addition of Pitts though seemingly spelled the end of Hurst as anything more than an ancillary piece in the Falcons offense going forward. Then the Falcons traded Julio Jones and suddenly Hurst’s prospects picked back up. As you are likely aware, part of the appeal of Pitts was the fact that though he’s listed as a tight end, he can and will line up all over the field. Fields is going to see a lot of his snaps at wide receiver, which means Hurst will get those snaps at tight end. The Falcons will have a highly concentrated target tree that consists of Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts, and Hayden Hurst. Hurst was able to provide top 10 production last season in the exact same circumstances, with Julio being one of the top two targets instead of Pitts. Hurst is currently being drafted as a low-end TE2 (TE28) despite the fact that he easily out-produced that production last year, and his situation largely remaining the same.
Thank you for reading, and good luck with your drafts!
