This has been a very busy off-season with big-name free-agency signings at every position. Perhaps the carousel has not been as expansive as it has been at the running back position. In an earlier article, I spoke about the impact of D’Andre Swift heading to the Windy City, but that is not the only move that will have major fantasy implications, for better or worse. As teams look to either upgrade and improve their team in the immediate future or look toward the future as they begin to rebuild there will be several high-profile players in uniforms we are not used to seeing them in. One of these players is Joe Mixon, formerly of the Cincinnati Bengals, who will now be taking handoffs from C.J. Stroud as he joins a young Houston Texans team with high expectations in 2024. Let’s take a look at the potential fantasy implications and fallout from this move.
Joe Mixon the Fantasy Asset
When the Bengals decided to draft Mixon in the second round of the 2017 NFL Draft they were taking a chance on a player with a lot of talent, but some baggage as well stemming from a domestic violence incident. Still, they followed their gut and it largely paid off. For the last seven years, Mixon has been a centerpiece of the offense and is a major reason for turning the club from a doormat to a Super Bowl contender. Over the last seven years, Mixon has posted 6,412 rushing yards, 283 catches, 2,139 receiving yards, and a total of 62 touchdowns, including four 1000-yard seasons. But, in fantasy circles, he has also been frustrating, often seen as a good but not a great option at the position. Take last year. In 2023, Mixon had just four games with single-digit fantasy points but also just five with more than 20. Owning Mixon meant you had to be ok with a player, who was likely your RB1, getting ten to twelve points, but that was usually what he got you. Some of this can be blamed on poor offensive line play and a lack of running room, but some of it falls on Mixon as well. Also, Mixon has managed to finish in the top-12 at the position in half-PPR five times out of his seven seasons, including finishing as the RB5 last year. It’s true that if you roster Mixon you have to be willing to ride the wave of ups and downs that come with that, but more often than not throughout his career, it’s been difficult to be too disappointed with the final results.
Texans about to give Joe Mixon the ball 25+ times a game 🔥 pic.twitter.com/odHVob7MQU
— big ounce (Texans script writer) (@_bigounce) March 12, 2024
Is Joe Mixon a Good Fit for the Texans
While it’s hard to argue with the season the Texans had last year, the one chink in their armor was the running game. By nearly every metric by which you judge the success of the ground game the Texans lagged. Even things like yards before contact were inside the bottom 10 of the league, and the running backs only scored a combined seven touchdowns, which included just five of 21 attempts inside the 5-yard line. It’s obvious why GM Nick Caserio saw a need to switch it up at the position. What’s interesting about the choice of Mixon is that he will be 28 years old when the season starts, but that clearly was not too great of a concern for Caserio, which makes sense. Mixon is coming off a solid year of 1410 total yards on 309 touches, including 52 receptions, and 12 total TDs. He provides the type of experienced, versatile, and (at times) explosive skill set the Texans were missing from their run game last season. The hope is that Mixon will be able to boost the ground game and turn a 2023 weakness into a 2024 strength. The deal makes complete sense for both parties. For the Texans, it’s a no-brainer to grab a running back of Mixon’s caliber when you only have to give up a seventh-round pick, and for the Bengals, it makes sense to get anything you can for a player you were planning on releasing anyway. For Mixon, himself it represents a fresh start on an up-and-coming team, with a better offensive line, and a chance to prove he can still produce at a high level.
What This Means for Dameon Pierce
To put it bluntly, this is not good for Dameon Pierce in any format, including dynasty. The Texans did not trade for Mixon and then signed him to a three-year extension to “compete” with Pierce. They brought him in to lead this backfield and perhaps take on a true bellcow role for the team. Last season, Pierce saw competition from and ultimately lost the starting job to Devin Singletary. Singletary is now gone, but Joe Mixon is better than Singletary and presents an even larger obstacle for Pierce to overcome for him to get on the field. Mixon is also joining one of the more surprising overall offenses from 2023 which should only continue to improve as QB C.J. Stroud gains more experience and gets even more comfortable than he was last season. This means he’s joining an offense with sky-high expectations and is trying to do everything they can to help the team succeed. Bringing Mixon in is a clear indication that they believe he could be a key piece to doing just that which could make it impossible for Pierce to see anything resembling a fantasy-relevant number of touches. Even if Pierce does see more touches than expected there is no guarantee he will be able to do much with them. Last season, Pierce failed to hit 4.0 YPC in a single game and only hit double-digit fantasy points in three of eight games in which he got 10 or more touches. There could be a potential goal-line role for him, but that’s also hard to make a case for since has not been good in that role up to this point. In his rookie season, Pierce only scored three TDs out of nine rushes at the goal line, and last season, he was even worse, only scoring twice on nine rushes. Plus, Pierce has failed to make any sort of dent in the passing game. So if he gets very few rushing attempts, has no goal-line roll, and isn’t utilized in the passing game, it’s hard to see a path to fantasy relevance. The minute the Texans signed Mixon was the same minute that Pierce became irrelevant as anything more than a bench stash or handcuff option.
Conclusion
This one is easy. A fresh start on a team with high hopes of taking on a potential bell cow role could mean good things for Mixon. I think at worst you’d be getting a mid-high-end RB2, but Mixon has a chance to be a low-end RB1 with upside if everything falls his way. As for Pierce, this move kills any chance of being useful in fantasy this season. Mixon’s presence was already going to cut down on Pierce’s involvement drastically, but there’s also still the chance that they add an RB in the NFL Draft. If they do the new rookie will be a much bigger immediate threat to Pierce than to Mixon. They signed Mixon and gave him an extension for a reason and that reason isn’t to watch the games from the sidelines. With young players like C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell, as well as more seasoned veterans like Dalton Schultz and now Mixon, this offense could be a force to reckon with in 2024. There’s always the chance that we start to see a decline as Mixon enters his age-28 season, but we have not seen much of one yet, and until we do I think he’s a safe, if not exciting, bet to produce.
