Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour makes its way from the Hartford, Connecticut, area to Silvis, Illinois, for the John Deere Classic – an event that has been played since 1971. We have 156 players in the field, and the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 will move on to play round 3 and round 4 on Saturday and Sunday respectively.
There’s $7.1M available to be won this week, the winner takes home $1.278M and also earns 500 FedEx Cup points, as well. TPC Deere Run is 7,289 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are bentgrass. The average winning score at this event over the last ten editions is -21.0, so expect lots of eagles and birdies this week and scores to be low. Place bets on golfers who are accurate off the tee blocks, are solid tee to green, strong gainers off the tee, hit excellent approach shots, and gain a lot of strokes total.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the John Deere Classic this week:
1. Which players have the most top 10’s over the last five years? Lucas Glover with 2, Adam Schenk with 2, and several players have 1 including Charles Howell III, Scott Stallings, Patrick Rodgers, Kevin Streelman, John Huh, Hank Lebioda, Ryan Moore, and others.
2. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total over the last 24 rounds? Denny McCarthy, J.T. Poston, Sahith Theegala, Brendon Todd, Adam Hadwin, Webb Simpson, Taylor Pendrith, Adam Schenk, Patrick Rodgers, and Charles Howell III.
3. Will the weather play a factor this week? We will see a little bit of wind on Thursday and Friday, but the weather looks dry and quite good for golf overall, so don’t worry too much about the morning/afternoon waves in round 1 and 2.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Adam Hadwin (+1000) – You know it’s an extremely weak field when Hadwin is the betting favorite! In his defense, he does have four top 9’s in his last nine stroke-play events and three more top 35’s during that same span. His game has been quite solid all-around for most of 2022, and he’s expected to make some noise on the leaderboard this week. I think you can bet him to win, to finish top 10, or to finish top 20 depending on your comfort level with the Canadian. I currently have an outright and a top 10 wager on him, and may add a top 20 bet as a hedge, as well.
Sahith Theegala (+2500) – With a T5 and a T2 in his last three starts, Theegala is on fire right now, and let’s not forget about his T7 at the Valspar Championship in March. Everything is aligned right now for Sahith, and he makes for an intriguing betting option this week. I’m comfortable betting him outright, top 5, AND top 10 this week, but do what your gut tells you.
Avoid: Maverick McNealy (+2500) – Nothing much is working for McNealy right now, but he could turn it around this week given the weak field and he had a top 20 here a year ago, so there’s hope he will rebound sooner rather than later – but I like the other options at the top of the board more so than him.
+2600 to +5000
Nick Hardy (+4000) – You got to like what Hardy has been doing over his last four starts with four straight top 35’s if you count him and his partner’s 21st place finish at the Zurich Classic, and he has gone 14th at the U.S. Open and T8 at the Travelers Championship last week – a solid past two starts to say the least. The Illinois native should be extra hungry this week, and I think this is the time to feast on betting him to win and/or to finish top 5 or top 10.
Lucas Glover (+4000) – Your 2021 winner is back for more fun this week – he hasn’t been super strong recently but did have a 23rd at the PGA Championship in late May where he gained 8.61 ball-striking. He also had a T10 here in 2019 and over his last three starts at this event, he has gained over 22 strokes ball-striking which is quite phenomenal. I have bet him to win and to finish top 10, so follow in my footsteps if you have the love for the Glove(r) this week.
Avoid: Cameron Davis (+4500) – His inaccuracy is a concern for this week – he has two 50-something finishes here since 2019 and has two 50-something finishes over his last two starts, so I expect something similar this week.
+5100 to +10000
J.T. Poston (+5500) – Poston has played some really good golf lately with three top 9’s in his last seven stroke-play events including a T2 last week thanks to gaining a huge 8.17 strokes on approach and another 5.31 putting. If you like course history, then don’t bother with him as he has finished no higher than T64 here in four starts, but I tend to value recent form much more.
Nate Lashley (+6500) – He had a T25 last week and a T26 here in 2019, so perhaps the stars are aligning for Lashley this week. He has seven top 27’s thus far this year, and I believe that he will add another one this week. I like him as a top 20 bet this week, but you could also hedge with a top 40 to cover your tracks.
Avoid: Patton Kizzire (+8000) – Lots of missed cuts seem to be the norm for Kizzire since early April with five over his last nine starts if you include the Zurich Classic, and his best finish during that span was a T26 at the RBC Heritage thanks to gaining 5.50 with his short game which I don’t like. His record here is quite good with three straight top 25’s, but his lackluster recent form is cause for concern.
+11000 and higher
Christopher Gotterup (+13000) – There aren’t many good options in this range, but Gotterup is worth a look since he had a T7 in March and is coming off a T35 last week where he gained strokes across the board except for a 2.56 loss around the greens, but that stat can be misleading at times. A top 30 or a top 40 wager is what I would be looking at for Christopher this week, but I did bet a buck on him to win, so I have some optimism that he could break through in this wide-open field.
Bill Haas (+20000) – Haas has only missed two cut lines in his last thirteen starts and has four top 36’s during that stretch. He had a T10 here three years ago – don’t expect that, but a top 40 bet isn’t so bad for a 3x ROI.
Avoid: Greyson Sigg (+20000) – Tough times for Sigg with five straight missed cuts and he’s bleeding strokes in every major stat category. He will regain his form at some point I would think, but don’t be early on Greyson.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
