Fantasy Rankings Update: June
People who are new to the hobby or are just not that dedicated to winning might think this is the quiet time of the fantasy football calendar but serious fantasy football fans know that there truly is no off-season. These days, we march right from the NFL Draft into mock drafting and early draft work.
The biggest part of any draft prep is diligently updating the upcoming season’s projections and rankings. One of the things I’m most excited about for the 2019 season is access to the abundance of quality analytics and data available at FantasyData that helps power the fantasy football industry. Some of the upcoming analysis and features that we have scheduled are exciting and are going to have a big impact on the 2019 season.
For now, June is a great time to do a major refresh on the 2019 projections and rankings ahead of the opening of training camp and the preseason. Here are my way-too-early 2019 fantasy football rankings and some key players that stand out as values or risks when compared to some of my contemporaries in the industry.
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Fantasy Players I’m Higher On
Carson Wentz (QB) Philadelphia Eagles – Wentz is one of my favorite targets in early 2019 drafts. In fact, I think Wentz is going to be a league-winner this season and will continue to happily select him outside of the top-10 quarterbacks. Even though he was still recovering from a 2017 knee injury, Wentz had his best season as a passer and the Eagles have added some quality playmakers around him. My projections have Wentz as a top-5 signal-caller and that makes him an outstanding value for the growing “wait on your QB” crowd.
Kirk Cousins (QB) Minnesota Vikings – Sure, the Vikings want to establish the run but 20 quarterbacks are currently being drafted ahead of Cousins. Since taking over as an NFL starter, Cousins has averaged 4,369 passing yards annually with 31 total touchdowns. He has also finished as the fantasy QB9, QB5, QB4, and QB9. Four straight top-10 finishes and arguably the best WR1/WR2 pairing in the NFL and 20 guys will put up better numbers?
Miles Sanders (RB) Philadelphia Eagles – Sanders looked tremendous last year at Penn State. We just didn’t get to see enough of him with the Nittany Lions because he was playing behind that Saquon Barkley kid. While Doug Pederson is likely to stick with a committee approach, Sanders has a three-down skill-set and could easily emerge as a 20-touch stud rather early. I think his ADP is likely to creep up, but he looks like an excellent value now, as RB39.
Alexander Mattison (RB) Minnesota Vikings – Another rookie rusher I like is Alexander Mattison, who is going so late in drafts he might as well be free. Dalvin Cook has not shown any ability to remain healthy and the Vikings have a tendency to utilize two running backs on a week-to-week basis even when Cook was active. Latavius Murray averaged 197 touches, 832 total yards and seven touchdowns as Minnesota’s RB2 the past two seasons. Mattison is the favorite for back-up duties and is another Cook injury away from a prominent role.
Stefon Diggs (WR) Minnesota Vikings – I have Diggs at WR10, ahead of his more-heralded teammate Adam Thielen. Diggs only had seven fewer targets than Thielen last season but what’s interesting is the two players’ roles once new offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski took over as play-caller starting in Week 15 last season. Diggs scored in all three games, while Thielen was held under 40 yards in two of the games and failed to produce a touchdown in Minnesota’s final four contests. Diggs is one of the best pure route-runners in the league and I get the feeling he’s finally about to emerge as an elite NFL and fantasy wideout.
Jarvis Landry (WR) Cleveland Browns – Under-valuing Landry has become a favored annual tradition in the fantasy football community and 2019 appears to be no different. While Landry did catch a career-low 81 balls last season, he still commanded a healthy 148 targets. He should be helped immensely by the presence of Odell Beckham Jr. and looks like a good bet to approach triple-digit receptions with Baker Mayfield as the field general. Landry will be a weekly WR 1/2 in PPR formats but is currently being selected as a WR3.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR) Arizona Cardinals – Fitzgerald managed to post WR30 numbers last season with one of the slowest, and least-efficient passing attacks in recent memory. Enter Kliff Kingsbury and his fast-paced, Air Raid attack. Fitzgerald has shown no physical signs of slowing down and will also spend more time outside as well as some snaps in the slot. In this offense, he’s almost guaranteed to see well over 100 targets and looks like a tremendous value in drafts at his current WR40 billing.
Jason Witten (TE) Dallas Cowboys – I don’t think Witten is going to get the kind of volume he commanded in his hey-day, but he’s so cheap in drafts that there’s no downside to taking a stab with the final pick of your draft. The Cowboys don’t have a ton of viable options to supplant Witten and the chemistry between the 37-year-old tight end and QB Dak Prescott was already evident in OTAs. Witten’s days of absorbing 100-plus targets are certainly over, but he might have enough juice left to catch 50-60 passes and be a decent streaming option in a position with almost no depth.
Fantasy Players I’m Lower On
Ben Roethlisberger (QB) Pittsburgh Steelers – Big Ben had his best season as an NFL passer but there is simply nowhere to go but down. While he finally stayed healthy, Roethlisberger isn’t a good bet to start another 16 games at 37 years old. But the biggest reasons that I’m avoiding Roethlisberger are no longer in Pittsburgh. While the Steelers were fine without Le’Veon Bell last season, the loss of Antonio Brown could prove to be devastating to a Pittsburgh offense that is in transition. Quarterback is crazy deep in 2019, so I just don’t see the need to overpay when there are so many values I like much later on in drafts.
Kerryon Johnson (RB) Detroit Lions – I took a good, long look at Johnson’s film and usage from last season and came away more impressed. In fact, I increased his projections, but still, I am quite a bit lower on his 2019 prospects than the consensus. Betting on Detroit running backs has been a long-standing disappointing proposition and the addition of C.J. Anderson to take over the LeGarrette Blount role tells me the Lions will continue to trot out a committee. Undoubtedly, Johnson will be the 1A of the backfield, but Blount still got 164 touches despite slogging along at 2.7 yards per carry. Anderson is far better and will be the favorite for short-yardage work as well. Overall, I like Johnson but I have him down at RB25, rather than a top-20 target.
Sammy Watkins (WR) Kansas City Chiefs – The current assumption is that Tyreek Hill won’t be playing for the Chiefs, so Watkins should step up as the club’s No. 1 receiver and is in line for a huge increase in volume. The problem with that thinking is that Watkins has never been a volume guy. He hasn’t topped 60 catches since his rookie season, which was way back in 2014. In addition, Watkins can’t ever seem to stay on the field. He’s missed an average of 4.75 games per season since his rookie campaign. Watkins probably isn’t the best candidate to replace Hill as the Chiefs’ main deep threat, either after posting a career-worst 13.0 yards per catch while playing through a myriad of injuries last season. Watkins is fine as an upside WR3 but looks like a prime candidate to be over-drafted in 2019.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR) Denver Broncos – I’m low enough on Sanders that I’m unlikely to own him anywhere in 2019. Sanders, 32, is still recovering from an Achilles injury, which is a potentially devastating ailment for any athlete that has to rely on burst and speed to thrive. The Broncos also will be transitioning into a new, run-heavy offense led by Joe Flacco. With no current timetable for if/when Sanders will be 100% healthy, and Denver loaded with talented young pass-catchers, Sanders’ days as a No. 1 receiver could very well be over.
Eric Ebron (TE) Indianapolis Colts – A noted Ebron skeptic, I had to take the L last season as the Colts finally figured out how to get Ebron involved in the red zone. But I just don’t see Ebron’s insane efficiency as being sustainable. The Colts added a couple of talented wideouts to take some of those red zone looks away and will have Jack Doyle back as their main downfield threat. Doyle out-targeted Ebron in four of the five games that the pair played together in 2018. Tight end is a disaster, as usual, but you won’t see me overpaying for Ebron’s breakout.
See all of Jody Smith’s 2019 Fantasy Football Rankings here.
