March Madness Pick’em Tips
The waiting period between Selection Sunday and the first round of the March Madness tournament to the die-hard college basketball fan holds the same type of suspense as the four-year-old boy on Christmas Eve waiting to wake up on Christmas morning to his first bicycle. I’m sure you all have already entered your pools and
Suggested Read: You might also really enjoy our March Madness Bracket Tips article. Matt Margolias found 20 interesting March Madness historical facts that he’s using to make his bracket this year, some of the trends from past winners may surprise you.
Best Bets
1. Virginia Cavaliers +650 5Dimes (#1 Seed, South Region)
The Cavaliers defense has been the basketball equivalent of the Berlin Wall, holding opponents to a mere 54.6 points per game in the regular season. That number is a full 4 points ahead of the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who ranked 2nd in the country, allowing 58.4 points per game. While their defense has been the best of the best so far this season, their 3 point shooting is not far behind. The Cavaliers sink the 3 ball at a 41.4% clip, good for 3rd in the nation. Not only do they drain the 3 at an incredibly efficient rate, but they also defend the 3 just as well, forcing opponents to shoot an abysmal 27.2% from 3 point land. This combination of “3 and D” ball makes them the most valuable pick for me in this year’s tourney at their current odds, and I expect this team to be as focused as ever after suffering a shocking first-round loss to #16 seeded UMBC in last years tourney. In my eyes, the Cavaliers have been the most consistent team this season, as their only losses have come against the #1 seed Duke Blue Devils twice during the regular season before being upset by the 4th seeded Florida State Seminoles in the ACC tournament. KenPom gives Virginia a 20.5% chance to win the title, followed by Gonzaga at 15.4% and Duke at 13.9%.
2. Duke Blue Devils +240 Fanduel (#1 Seed, East Region)
Every mock draft I’ve seen so far has all three of Duke’s star freshman being drafted in the top 10 with Zion Williamson (22.1 PPG) unanimously going 1st overall, followed by RJ Barrett (22.9 PPG) in the 2nd-3rd pick range, and sharpshooter Cam Reddish (13.7 PPG) following right behind those two in the 3rd-8th pick range. While I consider this unlikely (Ja Morant will almost certainly be drafted 2nd or 3rd), it is possible Duke could have the #1, #2, and #3 NBA draft picks on their current roster. Other than his freakish size/athleticism combo, perhaps the most impressive thing about Zion is his two-point field goal percentage. Williamson is hitting an unbelievable 76% of his shots taken inside the three-point line.
Those are numbers you would expect out of a 7 footer who shoots the ball maybe 3 times per game, not a 6’7 do it all forward with the skills of a guard who averages 22.1 points per game on just over 11 attempts. I believe Duke has the best chance to win the tournament. The reason why they’re my second best bet behind Virginia has to do with the +240 odds. I believe the odds are set perfectly; it’s just too small of a return to list them ahead of the Virginia Cavaliers at +650. I don’t believe there is a +400 gap between the two teams, especially with Virginia having an easier path to the Final Four.
3. North Carolina Tar Heels +850 5Dimes (#1 Seed, Midwest Region)
The North Carolina Tar Heels stock rose with the draft stock of their sensational freshman point guard Coby White. During their non-conference schedule, White was averaging 13.7 points per game, and the Tar Hees were 9-3. Coach Roy Williams decided to give the freshman the keys to his offense during conference play, and that decision has led to North Carolina earning a #1 seed in the tournament for an NCAA record 19th time. White averaged 17.3 points per game in conference play, leading the Tar Heels to a 17-3 record in the ACC and an ACC title game appearance that saw them lose a hard-fought game to Duke. While Coby White has been the guy flying up NBA draft boards, he’s not the only one who has contributed in this high powered offense that ranks 3rd the NCAA (86.1 PPG). Guard Cameron Johnson led the Tar Heels scoring surge this season, pouring in 16.9 points per game while senior forward Luke Maye has averaged 14.7 points and has been a monster on the glass as well, hauling in an average of 10.5 rebounds. North Carolina’s two wins over Duke this season have been downplayed due to the fact the Blue Devils were playing without Zion Williamson. However, the Tar Heels proved they are not overmatched, Zion or no Zion, when they lost the ACC championship by a point to the Blue Devils after Nassir Little’s tip shot at the buzzer failed to find the bottom of the net. I like the value here on a well-coached team that’s littered with firepower on the offensive side of the ball.
There’s nothing flashy about these picks here. Duke is the heavy favorite to win the tourney and the only other team Virginia and North Carolina find themselves looking up at in terms of odds are the Gonzaga Bulldogs, who are listed at +600 to hoist the Siemens trophy. One thing you’ll notice about the teams above is that they all have a “big 3” as they like to call it in the NBA. Duke has Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish. Virginia has Deandre Hunter, Kyle Guy, and Ty Jerome. North Carolina has Coby White, Cameron Johnson, and Luke Maye. This is a major factor in the March Madness tournament. While it absolutely does not mean these teams can’t be upset, it should ease the mind to know that if one of their stars goes cold there will be another star ready to pick up the slack. If these bets are a little too “vanilla” for you, take a look at some large return value plays I have listed below.
Value Bets
1. Virginia Tech Hokies +8000 5Dimes (#4 Seed, East Region)
The Hokies started off the season red hot, winning 17 of their first 20 games before losing star guard Justin Robinson for 12 games thanks to a foot injury he suffered on January 30th in an 82-70 win at Miami. The 4 seeded Hokies would have probably been a #2 seed had they not finished the season 7-5 in Robinson’s absence. Robinson is the glue to this Hokies team, and his return to the lineup will do wonders for this teams confidence while adding some nice flow to what has been a stagnant offense without him. Sophomore guard
2. Michigan Wolverines +2200 5Dimes (#2 Seed, West Region)
These odds came as a bit of a surprise to me as I would have expected their odds to be listed below the +2000 mark. Michigan had been ranked in the top 5 for a good portion of the year, jumping out to a 17-0 start that included blowout wins over #1 seed UNC, #3 seed Purdue, and #6 seed Villanova before finally losing to a gritty #5 seeded Wisconsin squad. Michigan may not boast the pro talent that the teams in my “Best Bet” section have, but this Michigan team certainly has talent and would be a very live dog vs. all 3 of those #1 seeds. KenPom has Michigan ranked as the 5th best team in the country in terms of adjusted efficiency margin. One thing that pops out at you when looking at the Wolverines regular season schedule is that they only have one bad loss on their schedule; a 75-69 let down at Penn State. The only other teams they lost to were Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan State (3 times). That being said, I expect Michigan to show up and play their best,
3. Kanas State Wildcats +12000 Fanduel (#4 Seed, South Region)
This pick rests solely on the health of outstanding senior forward Dean Wade, who missed all of the Big 12 tournament with a foot injury. As of this writing, Wade’s availability is still unclear.
“He says he feels better. He’s not in as much pain as he was. I told you he has done treatment. He did it today twice. We will see what the doctor says and see if we can make some progress as the week goes on.” – Head Coach, Bruce Weber
If Wade is ready to play, these odds are going to come crashing down. Regardless, the Wildcats had themselves a hell of a season this year, winning the BIG12 regular season title, preventing a banged up Kansas Jayhawks team from capturing the Big12 crown for their 15th straight season in a row. Even without Wade, the Wildcats still managed to get by a tough TCU team to reach the Big12 tournament Semi-Final where they lost a close game to an extremely talented Iowa State team. Kansas State will rely heavily on senior guard and leading scorer Barry Brown Jr (14.9 PPG) to get them past a tough UC Irvine team if Wade is forced to miss the first round. If Wade is healthy and somehow Virginia gets upset (K-State could very well find themselves with this opportunity in the Sweet Sixteen), Kansas State will have a serious chance to reach the Final Four and get out of what I consider to be the softest region if you take Virginia out of the equation. Sure, Kansas State is a longshot to win the tourney even with a healthy Dean Wade, but they have no business being listed at +12000 with his status still up in the air.
