Last time, we wrote up five bold predictions for American League hitters. This week, we bring a handful of bold predictions for National League hitters. There’s a mix of young and veteran players who have the potential for high-end production if everything breaks right. Some of these National League hitter bold predictions come from the BAT X projections and personal gut feelings about players. These bold predictions might look a bit spicier than those in the bold predictions piece for American League hitters. That said, let’s dive into five bold predictions for National League hitters.
2021 is the year Nick Senzel puts together a 20 home run and 20 steal season
A year ago, I considered Nick Senzel as a buy-low in dynasty baseball leagues after some of the shine wore off. Senzel notably struggled with injuries and vertigo, which caused him to miss time throughout the past two seasons. According to Roster Resource, Senzel projects to bat 6th at play in centerfield. That’s good news in terms of playing time for Senzel, assuming health. When looking at his entire major league career, Senzel totaled 14 home runs, 63 runs, 50 RBI, and 16 steals with a .245 batting average in 492 plate appearances. Over a full season’s worth of plate appearances, Senzel’s close to the 20/20 upside.
One of Nick Senzel’s strongest tools involves his hit tool evidenced by a low 30.8% O-Swing% and league-average 84.3% Z-Contact% in his career. Nothing mind-blowing, but he hardly chases pitches and makes a decent amount of contact in the zone. Prospect growth isn’t linear and I expect Senzel to continue to develop and grow in 2021. When we sort by OPS in the BAT X projections, we find interesting names nearby Senzel that either has an early ADP or don’t provide the same stolen base potential.
Senzel stuck out when scouring the projection systems for hitters. The BAT X projects Senzel for 19 home runs, 79 runs, 67 RBI, and 17 steals with a .264 batting average. That’s a slight increase in a recent projections update. Over the past couple of weeks, Senzel holds a 232 ADP in NFBC leagues, which is a fair ADP given his injury history. Honestly, the 20 home run and 20 steal prediction don’t feel bold enough. However, I have a positive gut feeling about Senzel in 2021.
Andrew McCutchen will finish as a top-30 outfielder
Although this doesn’t feel too farfetched, Andrew McCutchen currently holds a 201 ADP over the past two weeks. He’s currently the 53rd outfielder drafted between Kyle Schwarber and Jarred Kelenic. McCutchen is a safe and boring guy that should accumulate a ton of runs with 20 plus home runs with 6-8 steals. We’ll note that McCutchen is better suited for OBP leagues since he boasts a 12.9% walk rate and .352 OBP in 2019 and 2020.
We know about his quality plate discipline metrics with a career 23.4% O-Swing% and typically a league-average or above-average zone contact rate. McCutchen’s Statcast data doesn’t wow us with a 7.3% barrel rate in 2019 and 8.2% barrel rate in 2020, both about league-average. Amongst qualified hitters, McCutchen finished with a 93.2 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 76) between Trea Turner and Mike Yastrzemski.
The BAT X projects McCutchen for 23 home runs, 80 runs, 75 RBI, and eight steals with a .260 batting average. Overall, McCutchen provides a safe floor in a quality lineup that could accumulate counting stats with a solid batting average to finish as a top-30 outfielder.
Trea Turner wins the National League MVP
Surprisingly, Trea Turner is quite an underdog for the National League MVP. On the BettingData MLB Futures bets, Draft Kings, and Points Bet have Turner at +5,000 to win the NL MVP. That’s near Jeff McNeil, Trent Grisham, and Paul DeJong, which seems disrespectful to Turner’s talent and production. In 2018 and 2019, Turner totaled 19 home runs each year with 43 and 35 steals. Turner nearly averaged 100 runs each season with a .283 batting average combined in 2018 and 2019. Granted it’s a small sample, but Turner finished with career highs in a 9.5% barrel rate (61st percentile), 40.7% hard-hit rate (58th percentile), and .413 wOBA (97th percentile).
Granted that his profile fits fantasy better than the typical MVP candidate, but Trea Turner’s a legitimate and underrated hitter. Sadly, Trea Turner never received an NL MVP vote outside of 2020, where he finished 7th in the voting between Marcell Ozuna and Mike Yastrzemski. The BAT X projects Turner for 23 home runs, 102, runs, 82 RBI, and 36 steals with a .293 batting average. If he meets these projections, Turner will have a chance to push for the NL MVP in 2021.
Cristian Pache wins the National League Rookie of the Year
I wanted to choose Dylan Carlson, but he seems like a likely candidate. So let’s go with outfield prospect Cristian Pache, who made a brief debut in 2020. Pache at +1,200 on Draft Kings and +1,300 on PointsBet is right behind Carlson at +900 for both. Pache’s brief 2020 debut may not inspire confidence with one home run, four runs, and four RBI with a weak batting average in 29 plate appearances across two games in the regular season and 12 games in the postseason. However, that’s not enough data to even make a reasonable projection.
Given his defensive ability, Cristian Pache will play every day and bat towards the bottom of the lineup. Pache also boasts plus-plus (70-grade) speed that should translate to near double-digit steals. The BAT X projects Pache for 13 home runs, 64 runs, 59 RBI, and nine steals with a .258 batting average.
Nothing mind-blowing by any means, but Pache will accumulate plate appearances in a solid Braves lineup. Outside of Ke’Bryan Hayes and Dylan Carlson, my bold prediction is that Pache wins the NL Rookie of the Year in 2021. Over the past two weeks, Pache holds an NFBC ADP past pick 400 at pick 447, which makes him an intriguing late-round flier or bench bat.
C.J. Cron finishes as a top-5 first baseman in 2021
After C.J. Cron drew us into him in 2020, he’s drawing us in again in 2021 since he landed with the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies purchased Cron’s contract means he’s on the 40-man roster and should have the starting first base job locked down. Coors Field mostly inflates BABIP and batting average but also ranks highly in wOBA and home runs per EV Analytics Park Factors. That means that Cron’s already strong hard-hit metrics should play up with his new home. In 2018 and 2019, Cron hit 55 home runs combined with a .253 batting average in both seasons. Unfortunately, Cron suffered a knee injury that ended his 2020 season, so we don’t have a ton of 2020 data on him.
However, Cron consistently displayed double-digit barrel rates from 2017 to 2020 with elite hard-hit metrics in 2019. Cron ranked in the 95th percentile in 2019 with a 15% barrel rate and the 84th percentile with a 45% hard-hit rate. When adjusting to 350 batted ball events, Cron ranked 12th with a 96.2 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD in 2019 between Marcell Ozuna and Josh Bell. That showed his elite power while he played in a Twins home ballpark that rated average or below average in EV Analytics Park Factors.
In 600 PA with #Rockies, THE BAT X would project CJ Cron for .274 BA, 35 HR, 97 RBI, 82 R, and .366 wOBA 👀
Give this man the starting 1B job!
— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) February 15, 2021
Over the past two weeks, Cron has an NFBC ADP right inside the top-200 picks at pick 198 as the 21st first basemen off the board. It’s no surprise that a ton of fantasy managers actively target Cron given his fantasy-friendly home ballpark. Assuming health and the hard-hit metrics holding up, Cron could finish as a top-5 first baseman in fantasy baseball leagues.
