As the weather warms up across the country, the offensive numbers seem to take off and we end up with higher scoring MLB DFS slates. While my main focus is on pitching early in the year, I tend to transition to focusing more on stacking offenses that can “break the slate” with double-digit run totals on any given night. Getting the right pitcher is still important, but finding elite offenses that can put up lopsided scores is of the utmost importance in my opinion.
What I’m looking to do today is identify those offenses that are trending in the right direction statistically. Some of them are known commodities, while others are teams that are putting it together for the first time. I take a look at a number of advanced statistics when trying to come up with my list, but ISO and wOBA are two of the most commonly used in the industry so you’ll see those mentioned often. With any further ado, here are my top 3 offenses to target going forward in MLB DFS.
1. The Atlanta Braves
The Braves are red hot right now, with a league-best .253 ISO and .391 wOBA over the last 14 days. And it’s not just a hot streak, as they have been gradually warming up over the last month posting a .217 ISO and .352 woBA over the last 30 days. Both of these recent sample sizes are well above their season averages of .196 ISO and .339 wOBA.
The Braves offense has powered up and down the lineup. They have household names like veterans Freddie Freeman and Josh Donaldson hitting third and fourth, rising young star Ronald Acuna Jr. leading off, and rookie sensation Austin Riley hitting in the 5th or 6th spot. Riley made his big league debut a little over a month ago and the Braves upswing in power statistics correlates with him being in the lineup. His 11 homers in only 138 at-bats are impressive and have contributed to his .945 OPS. Meanwhile, Acuna had his breakout season last year but has taken another big step in his development this year, smashing 17 homers and 10 doubles from the leadoff spot in the lineup. Not many teams have the type of power that Atlanta has in this lineup, as six of their starting 8 position players have double-digit homers, with Freeman leading the way with 21. Even catchers Brian McCann and Tyler Flowers have combined for 13 homers between them.
The Braves play their home games in the hitter-friendly venue of Sun Trust Park, which has produced the third most runs of any stadium. The weather in Atlanta this time of year is hot and humid, meaning that the ball is going to travel out of the park more often. While the Braves are an elite offense to target in any venue, when they are playing at home and facing a pitcher who doesn’t miss bats, they will always be an elite team to stack in DFS.
2. Los Angelas Angels
At the beginning of the season, the Angels were a team that I was targeting with pitchers, especially left-handers as they had very little to fear in their order other than Mike Trout. But right now, the Angels offense is one of the hottest in all of baseball and looks a lot different than it did on opening day. Using the metric WRC+ (Weighted Runs Created +), we can see that the Angels are trending up in a big way. After struggling for the first month of the season, they are now 4th in the league in WRC+ at 111 (with 100 being the expected average from a team). Over the last month, they are third at 121 and over the last 14 days, they are second, behind Atlanta at 123.
L.A. also has the lowest strikeout rate in the majors at only 16.8%. They put the ball in play and good things happen as a result. Something that a lot of casual MLB fans won’t realize is that the Angels reconfigured their outfield fences this year, making it a much more hitter-friendly park. This year, Angels stadium ranks 9th in runs scored and 7th in home runs allowed. Fire up the Angels in your DFS lineups, especially when they are home!
3. Cleveland Indians
The Indians have made a serious jump in the offensive ranks recently, as they were a team that was struggling (even more than the Angels) for the first month of the season. The return of their superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor to the leadoff spot in the lineup was a good start, but more importantly, veterans Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, and Jose Ramirez have busted out of early-season slumps to get this Tribe offense going.
The Tribe still ranks 23rd overall in wOBA on the season and 21st in wOBA. Those numbers actually reflect improvement over where they were ranked before they started picking things up at the plate. They are third in wOBA at .352 over the last two weeks and second in ISO at .244. These numbers may not be totally sustainable, but they reflect a major increase in production from this lineup. The contributions of youngsters Jordan Luplow (8 HR in 124 AB) and Oscar Mercado (.315 average, 12 extra base hits, 6 steals) have certainly helped and a major power surge from their catcher Roberto Perez (13 HR, only one behind Santana for most on the team) has given serious run production from the bottom of the order.
Keep an eye on the Indians as the calendar turns over from June to July because while they are hot, they are also buried 9 games behind division-leading Minnesota and well outside the wild-card race. If that lead gets into double digits, we could see the Indians become sellers at the deadline, with some veterans hitters and pitchers hitting the open market.
Holding Steady: Minnesota Twins, Los Angelas Dodgers
The Twins are Dodgers are both top 3 in nearly every offensive category and holding steady. We expected as much from the Dodgers, but the Twins are one of the big surprises in baseball. We knew that Nelson Cruz and Eddie Rosario had major power, but guys like Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, C.J. Cron, and Mitch Garver are having career years. Free-agent addition Jonathan Schoop is smashing homers and both catchers Willians Astudillo and Jason Castro have been productive. The Twins have become a team you can target just about every night in DFS and their numbers suggest they are no flash in the pan.
The Dodgers are one of the elite offenses in all of baseball, specifically against right-handed pitching. Their fearsome foursome of Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, and Corey Seager (currently injured) have the most power of any four-man stack in all of baseball. They are even getting solid production from their role players as well with Chris Taylor, David Freese, and Kiki Hernandez having solid seasons and being cheap DFS options against lefties.
Trending Down: Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals
The Mariners started out hotter than any team in the majors, but have quickly cooled off and fallen out of contention. They wasted no time in trading off veteran sluggers Edwin Encarnacion to the Yankees and Jay Bruce to the Phillies and now have middling offensive numbers over the last month. They are a team I like to attack with pitchers as they have seen their strikeout rate jump up to 25% on the season, which is fifth worst in the league.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are the coldest offense in all of baseball over the last 30 days and 14 days. Unlike the Mariners, the Cardinals did not see any of their full-time players get traded and they don’t have any major injuries to blame either. They are dead last in almost every offensive category over the last 14 and 30 days, which has led to them falling all the way down to 19th overall on the season in WRC+. We’ve seen pitchers (even some rookies in their debuts) having their way with them recently and they will continue to be an offense I avoid using in DFS and one that I will target with pitchers.
I hope this info helps you and your thought process when building those DFS lineups. I’ll continue to keep looking at trends and stats the rest of MLB season with the goal of unearthing some data that we can use to our advantage.
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