Will the Robust RB Strategy Work in 2019?

By Eric Moody | June 20, 2019

Do you prefer draft strategies that revolve around selecting running backs early and often? If the answer is yes then you’re in the right place. I wrote an article discussing the Zero RB strategy and now would like to focus on the other end of the spectrum. This draft strategy goes by many names such as Robust RB, Zero WR, Triple RB, or RBx5. This article will define the strategy, provide you a blueprint on how to execute it, which players to target, and a mock draft to provide you a line of sight of what your team could look like.   

What is the Robust RB Strategy?

The easiest way to describe the strategy is that it’s the opposite of Zero RB. You want to prioritize the running back position in the high leverage rounds of the fantasy draft. It is important to provide yourself with the flexibility to consider selecting one upside wide receiver in the fourth or fifth round depending on the flow of the fantasy draft. Your preferred lineup after five rounds should be to roster five running backs. The Zero RB strategy is better suited for PPR formats, but the Robust RB strategy can be executed in any format. The ideal format is where you have an equal number of running back and wide receiver starters.    

You want to target running backs who are on the field for a high number of offensive snaps, have a high utilization percentage, and average a high number of opportunities per game. Rushing attempts and targets are very predictive when evaluating running backs from one season to the next. 

At the wide receiver position, you’ll want to target players tied to productive offenses that average a high number of passing yards per game. Targets and air yards per game should also factor into your decision-making process. You must be adept at out picking your league-mates at wide receiver. The good news is that there are numerous resources at FantasyData that we have to project who will see snaps at the position. It is best to wait on the tight end and quarterback position when executing this strategy. Let me share with you what your Robust RB team could look like this summer.

Mock Draft

I will be drafting from the 1.03 in this 12-team PPR mock. The starting lineup will consist of a QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Flex, DST, and K. 

1.03 Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey averaged 20.4 touches, 123 total yards, and 24 PPR fantasy points per game last season finishing as the RB3. He is in a great position with the Panthers to see this trend continue in 2019. McCaffrey is a no brainer at the 1.03.  

2.10 Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb was leaned on heavily last season by the Browns once Freddie Kitchens was promoted to offensive coordinator entering Week 9. This took place after the firing of head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Chubb’s averaged nearly 20 touches and 102 total yards per game over the Browns final eight games with Kitchens calling plays. The Browns finished the season with a 5-3 record which resulted in Kitchens being promoted to head coach. 

Chubb should continue to see a heavy workload with Kitchens still expected to call offensive plays. Todd Monken, who specializes in the Air Raid scheme, was brought in as the offensive coordinator. The addition of Odell Beckham provides the Browns with an offensive weapon that can threaten defenses vertically. This will help Chubb this season considering he faced eight-man boxes on 34 percent of his carries in 2018 according to Player Profiler. Did you know that was the fourth most of any running back last season? The Browns also added Kareem Hunt to the backfield. He is suspended for the first eight games of the season. The success of the Browns running game during the first eight games will dictate how Hunt will be deployed into the backfield. Chubb has the potential to outperform his current average draft position. 

3.03 Leonard Fournette

Fournette finished his rookie season in 2017 as the RB9 in PPR formats. He wasn’t as productive last season finishing as the RB40 and played in only eight games. Fournette has also had a very public falling out with the Jaguars coaching staff and executive vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin near the end of the 2018 season. That all appears to be water under the bridge now. Fournette has averaged nearly 22 touches per game over the last two seasons. Jaguars offensive coordinator John DeFilippo has mentioned publicly that he will continue to be a focal point of the offense. Fournette is an excellent bounce-back candidate with Nick Foles now under center in Jacksonville. 

4.10 Sony Michel

Sony Michel averaged 16.1 rushing attempts per game in 13 games played last season. He accumulated an impressive 981 total yards as a rookie. The usage in the Patriots backfield is volatile on a week to week basis. Michel is worth the risk considering how effective the offense in New England has been over the years. The Patriots offense has averaged 28 rushing attempts and 112 rushing yards per game over the last four seasons. The training camp battle between Michel and the team’s third-round pick in this year’s draft Damien Harris will be interesting to watch. Michel’s average draft position could be even lower in August. 

5.03 Phillip Lindsay

Lindsay finished last season with 1,278 total yards and 10 touchdowns. He was the first ever undrafted offensive rookie invited to the Pro Bowl. Lindsay took advantage of fellow rookie Royce Freeman’s injury woes finishing as the RB13 in PPR formats. The Broncos backfield will continue to operate as a committee in 2019. The addition of Mike Munchak as the team’s new offensive line coach has been underpublicized. His presence bodes well for Lindsay this upcoming season. 

6.10 Tyler Boyd

Boyd caught 70 percent of his 108 targets last season averaging 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game. He had 1,000 or more receiving yards and was still very productive from a fantasy perspective in the games Boyd played with teammate A.J. Green. This effectiveness will continue in 2019 considering the Bengals did not draft or add any additional wide receivers this offseason. Green is expected to a few games at the beginning of the season as he recovers from ankle surgery. The 31-year receiver has missed multiple games over the last two seasons. He is also entering a contract year. The tables continue to turn in Cincinnati and Boyd is in the perfect position to shine in 2019. 

7.03 Will Fuller

Fuller has only played in 31 career games since entering the NFL back in 2016. Were you aware that 11 of those 31 games have been with Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson under center? Fuller has averaged six targets, four receptions, 71 receiving yards, and one touchdown per game in those games. He is in an excellent position to break out in 2019 and outperform his average draft position.   

8.10 Sterling Shepard

Who will inherit the target share that Odell Beckham had before being traded the Browns? It will be divided between Shepard and Giants free agent acquisition, Golden Tate. One advantage that Shepard has is his experience with quarterback Eli Manning and the offense. It is not optimal having a player’s success or failure being defined by Manning, but consistent targets on a per game basis are a valuable commodity in fantasy football. Shepard’s averaged 6.8 targets, 4.4 receptions, and 53.2 yards per game over his first three seasons competing with Beckham for targets. He is the best value amongst the Giants receivers heading into drafts this summer.    

9.03 DeSean Jackson

Jackson looks to bounce back after two lackluster seasons in Tampa Bay. He now finds himself as part of the Eagles offense with talented quarterback Carson Wentz under center. Jackson will most likely be the third target in the team’s passing game behind Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz. The expectation is that his role will be to attack defenses vertically. Jackson can still be very effective with minimal targets, but his week to week volatility will depend on positive or negative game flow. Jackson has the potential to be a fantasy week winner in the right matchup. This is what makes his average draft position so enticing. 

10.10 Jared Cook

Cook set career highs last season in Oakland with 101 targets, 68 receptions, 896 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. He will have an opportunity to thrive in New Orleans, but Cook is unlikely to see the target volume he had with the Raiders.


Cook will have enough opportunities to be viewed as a low-end TE1. 

11.03 DaeSean Hamilton

Hamilton is criminally undervalued at his current average draft position. There is a ton of uncertainty around the availability of Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders who suffered an Achilles tear late last season. Hamilton performed admirably in his absence playing through a sprained MCL and finished with 38 targets, 25 receptions, 182 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.

12.10 Chris Herndon

Herndon was very productive last year as a rookie tight end. Were you aware that he had five games with 10 or more PPR fantasy points in the final 11 games? Herndon displayed a great rapport with Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. New Jets head coach Adam Gase has provided the tight ends in his offenses 6.1 targets per game since 2013. Herndon will have streaming appeal this upcoming season in the favorable matchups.

13.03 Kenny Stills

The aggressiveness of either Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh Rosen will create more opportunities for Stills this season. There is a good chance that he meets or exceeds his 16 percent target share from last season working as the Dolphins slot receiver. Did you know that Stills has averaged 9.3 yards per target his entire career? Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker is getting a ton of attention with his practice performances during the team’s minicamp. This is likely to drive up his average draft position. Stills is the Dolphins receiver to target in fantasy drafts this summer. 

14.10 Jameis Winston 

Winston has averaged 261.3 passing yards per game up to this point in his NFL career. He has a new head coach in Bruce Arians which brings a new offensive scheme. Arians’ offensive schemes are aggressive and not shy about threatening defenses vertically. Winston will have a plethora of receivers including Mike Evans, O.J. Howard, and Chris Godwin. He will be in a great position to finish within the top-10 at the quarterback position.  

15.03 Browns DST

16.10 Matt Prater

Final Roster

  • QB: Jameis Winston
  • RBs: Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Sony Michel, Phillip Lindsay
  • WRs: Tyler Boyd, Will Fuller, Sterling Shepard, DeSean Jackson, DaeSean Hamilton, Kenny Stills
  • TEs: Jared Cook, Chris Herndon
  • DST: Browns DST
  • K: Matt Prater

Conclusion

You are able to accumulate talent at running back when you prioritize the position in the first five rounds of a draft. All of these running backs are projected a see a high number of opportunities per game. The goal would be to start three running backs every week using the flex. Boyd, Fuller, Shepard, Jackson, and Stills have all thrived in scenarios in which they have not been the No. 1 receiver. Hamilton is poised for a breakout season and Stills has less competition for targets this year with the departure of last season’s target leader Danny Amendola. Using Vegas odds and other resources to play matchups at the wide receiver and tight end position will be critical to the success of any fantasy team using this strategy.

Can you see yourself executing the Robust RB strategy? It’s more comfortable to implement than Zero RB because many have been conditioned to select running backs early and often in fantasy drafts. You may find yourself feeling queasy when imagining what your starting wide receivers will look like. Remember that it’s much easier to project who will see snaps and targets at the wide receiver position. This transparency is not often reflected in the average draft position.             

Eric Moody
Eric Moody is a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). His writing has been featured at FantasyPros, Gridiron Experts, RotoViz, and TwoQBs. He has a lifelong passion for the game and even played at the collegiate level as an offensive lineman. Eric also participated in Dan Hatman's Scouting Academy in order to learn the process of player evaluation at an NFL level. When Eric provides advice, he uses game film, analytics, and statistics to help you understand his perspective. He enjoys time with his family, Netflix, music, bass guitar, and coffee
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