MLB Fantasy: Second Half Buy Low/Sell High

Buy Low/Sell High

The All-Star break has come and gone and the dog days of summer are here for Major League Baseball. With only a few weeks left before the MLB trade deadline (and likely you’re fantasy league’s deadline, too), MLB teams have to decide if they are contenders or not. And if they consider themselves still in the hunt for a playoff spot, which pieces can they add to give their teams a shot at the postseason. Perhaps, you find yourself in a similar position with your season-long fantasy baseball team. This is the time of year where the right trade(s) can make or break your team’s chances to bring home a championship. Can you turn some of the pieces on your team into players that will be more valuable down the stretch?

With that in mind, I’m going to take a look at one pitcher and one hitter you should consider targeting who are primed to improve and highlight one pitcher and one hitter who you should try to trade now in order to maximize their value. Welcome to the midseason “buy low, sell high.” If you’re in a dynasty league then obviously there are a lot of other considerations to be made, but I’m gearing this analysis towards conventional season-long leagues and to some extent DFS as well. 

Buy Low

Chris Sale – SP, Boston Red Sox

Sale has been very open about his struggles, telling the media that “he stinks right now.” He’s definitely had some struggles but I think the baseball community, in general, is overreacting a bit and there is some panic setting in with Sale owners and Red Sox fans as to whether or not he will regain his mojo in the second half. I can’t predict his confidence level, but the statistics do help build a case for him bouncing back soon. His xFIP is a full run lower than his ERA and is top 5 in all of baseball. His HR/FB ratio of 17.5% is a full 5% higher than any year of his career and his LOB% is a career-low of 68.4%. Simply stated, he’s been pretty unlucky with fly balls turning into home runs and opposing offenses getting timely hits with men on base. If you can find someone in your league who would trade you Sale for a second-tier pitcher, you should do it as soon as possible. I expect him to dominate again soon.

Jose Ramirez – 3B, Cleveland Indians

J-Ram’s overall season numbers (8 HR, 40 RBI, .232 AVG) still look pretty lousy considering he was coming off a massive year last year and was likely an early-round draft pick in many leagues. However, Ramirez has really turned it on lately and has started to look like the elite hitter that he was last year for the Tribe. Over the last month, he is slashing .321/.371/.580 with 4 homers and 16 RBI and has been part of the reason the Indians offense has been markedly better in June and July. While he’s not likely to come anywhere near his 39 HR and 105 RBI from last season, he still has two and a half months to pile up some statistics and is a gifted hitter and baserunner (20 steals this year on pace to beat his 34 last season). Hopefully, there is an owner in your league who hasn’t been paying attention to Ramirez’s recent hot streak or maybe they are still focusing on his underperforming overall numbers. I’d be making some offers for him and seeing if you can get him now before it’s too late. He is a toolsy, talented player with speed and the ability to hit from both sides of the plate, there just aren’t many players like him in the league.

Noah Syndergaard – SP, New York Mets

Thor has had quite the inconsistent first half, posting a 7-4 record and a 4.55 ERA. Most of the attention in New York has shifted to his teammate, Jacob DeGrom, who is having another terrific year after his Cy Young season last year. Syndergaard was supposed to be “co-aces” with DeGrom but has battled injuries and inconsistency. If you watch him pitch, you can still see the incredible potential he has with his electric high 90’s fastball and hard slider. His statistics tell a similar story, as his advanced metrics look better than his surface stats. He owns a 3.81 FIP and a 67% LOB percentage, meaning that like Sale, he’s been pretty unlucky with how many runners he has allowed to score once they are on base. He’s flashed his upside several times this season with a complete-game 10-strikeout shutout of the Reds and more recently 7 shutout innings against the Rockies. He’s still striking out about a batter per inning and pitches his home games at Citi Field, a pitcher-friendly park. I’d be floating some offers to frustrated owners and taking a shot on a pitcher with Thor’s talent and stuff.

Sell High

Zach Davies – SP, Milwaukee Brewers

Zach Davies has been solid for the Brewers thus far compiling a 7-2 record and a 2.89 ERA in 19 starts spanning 102 innings. However, he is is the exact opposite of Chris Sale in many ways as far as his advanced statistics are concerned. His xFIP is 5.00, a full two runs higher than his ERA and there are a few other red flags that scream regression for Davis as well. His 10% HR/FB ratio is a career-low and not likely to last considering he pitches half of his games in hitter-friendly Miller Park. Some might argue that he is a groundball pitcher who relies on his sinker to keep hitters from putting the ball in the air, however his GB% is also at a career-low of just 41%. He’s a below-average strikeout pitcher with a 16% K rate and so he has to rely on ground balls and his ability to generate weak contact to survive. I’m amazed he’s made it this far into the season without blowing up and I would be shopping him aggressively to other owners in my league who are in need of pitching. Sell them on his ERA and his record, I expect that ERA to swell closer to 4 by the end of the season.

Brandon Lowe – 2B, Tampa Bay Rays

Now to be perfectly fair, I don’t usually encourage people to trade away injured players, especially really talented young prospects like Lowe. And if you’re in a dynasty league, then you probably want to hold onto Lowe as he clearly has a really bright future. But if you want to maximize your ability to win this year, I think Lowe is the perfect sell-high candidate. First of all, Lowe is due to return from injury soon and that’s always a good angle to take in trade negotiations. You target an owner who is slightly ahead of you in the standings with the old, “I just can’t wait on him any longer, but your team can afford to stash him, he’s back soon.” I’m bearish on Lowe going forward for a few reasons. While he has shown awesome power so far with 16 homers in his first 300 at-bats, he also has shown he has a terrible strikeout problem with a massive 34% K rate. He was slumping pretty badly before the injury, too. In his last 15 games before going on the IL he was hitting .216 with only 2 homers and 6 RBI. He doesn’t walk much and relies on his power for most of his statistics. It’s tough trading away an asset like Lowe as power from a second baseman is hard to find, but I think you can fleece another owner by selling him on Lowe’s past production and the buzz that surrounds his talent level.

Michael Chavis – 2B/SS, Boston Red Sox

The Chavis situation here is pretty similar to Lowe’s in that he burst onto the scene flashing some major power, but also has some hiccups in his game that make him a flawed fantasy player. He’s got 16 home runs in his first 320 at-bats, but like Lowe, he is carrying a massive strikeout rate at 33% and only a 9% walk rate. His batting average has dropped to .261 because of lack of contact and it may continue to go down based on his BABIP of .351, which is likely not sustainable. I really like him as a real-life player, but I do think you can test out the market on Chavis and see if you can land a more reliable fantasy contributor. The fact that he plays for Boston and is becoming a well-known name may help your cause.

I hope this info helps you and your thought process when evaluating some trade offers in your season-long leagues or when you’re building those DFS lineups. I’ll continue to keep looking at trends and stats the rest of MLB season with the goal of unearthing some data that we can use to our advantage.

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