When Tarik Skubal captured the 2024 AL Cy Young Award with a pitching Triple Crown performance, the question on fantasy managers’ minds entering 2025 was whether he could maintain that elite production. Through mid-May, the advanced metrics suggest not only sustainability but potential for further growth.
Skubal’s current 2.21 ERA and 2.44 FIP align almost perfectly with last year’s figures (2.39 ERA/2.49 FIP), indicating his results are legitimate. What’s particularly encouraging is his strikeout-to-walk ratio, which has jumped from an already impressive 6.5 in 2024 to a remarkable 9.6 this season. This improvement in command is among the most reliable indicators of sustained success.
The lefty’s arsenal continues to play up across all metrics. His 30.0% strikeout rate places him among the elite, and when combined with his improved walk rate, gives him one of the best K-BB% marks in baseball. This combination of missing bats while limiting free passes provides a secure floor that fantasy managers can count on even when he encounters the occasional rough outing.
Statcast data reinforces Skubal’s dominance. His underlying metrics show he’s inducing weak contact consistently, with batters struggling to barrel up his pitches. While some pitchers with gaudy ERAs are benefiting from favorable BABIP or strand rates, Skubal’s expected statistics align with his actual results, suggesting what you see is what you’ll continue to get.
What makes Skubal especially valuable in fantasy is his workload. In an era when many starters are limited to 5-6 innings, he’s consistently working deeper into games, enhancing his value in formats that count quality starts or innings pitched. This stamina, combined with his elite ratios, makes him a true difference-maker in all fantasy formats.
For dynasty managers, there’s additional reason for optimism. At 28 years old, Skubal appears to be in his prime with command that’s still improving. Unlike some power pitchers who experience velocity dips as they age, his approach relies equally on precision and pitch design, suggesting he could maintain effectiveness even with modest velocity regression.
The one potential area of concern is workload management. After throwing a career-high in innings last season, there’s always the possibility the Tigers could give him extra rest or limit his innings late in the season, particularly if they fall out of contention. However, Detroit currently looks competitive in 2025, increasing the likelihood they’ll continue pushing their ace.
Fantasy verdict: Skubal has solidified his position as a top-3 fantasy starter alongside Paul Skenes and Logan Gilbert. His combination of elite strikeout ability, pinpoint command, and consistent performance makes him worth the significant investment required to acquire him. If you have him, hold tight. If you don’t, consider making a substantial offer, as pitchers with his combination of floor and ceiling are exceedingly rare.
