Monday Night Football Preview
Buccaneers -12.5 at Giants I Over/Under 44.5
Week Eight of Monday Night Football takes us to MetLife Stadium, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on the New York Giants. With just one win on the year, the Giants find themselves in the NFC East’s basement, while the Bucs are firing on all cylinders leading the NFC South at 5-2. Let’s get into the matchup and break it down. All spread and salary information is from DraftKings.
HOW THE BUCS WIN
The Bucs need to come ready to play and not look past this Giants team. Offensively they have a star-studded cast led by future HOF quarterback Tom Brady. They’re the third highest-scoring team in the league this year, putting up 31.7 points per game, and shouldn’t have any issues putting up points on this Giant defense. The Bucs also have one of the toughest all-around defenses in the league that can disrupt the Giant offense.
HOW THE GIANTS WIN
The Giants need to contain Tom Brady and the Bucs offense. The Giants offense hasn’t produced much this year, and that trend will continue into this matchup. They are scoring just 17.4 points per game, the second-worst in the league. The NFC EAST is so bad that even with one win, they are only 1.5 games out of first, but getting a win this week is a tall order. The Bucs are better offensively and defensively, and this one could get ugly quickly.
QUARTERBACK
Tom Brady ($12,000)
Brady comes into this one red hot with six touchdowns in his last two games. He’s taken control of this team, and the offense is crushing it right now. The Giants allow 268 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and have given up 11 touchdowns on the year. Brady will be able to have his way with this secondary, he will be down Chris Godwin, but that won’t affect much as this team is loaded with playmakers. The only issue with Brady this week is if the Bucs go up big, he may come out of the game, but hopefully not before racking up the points.
Daniel Jones ($9,200)
The Giants are struggling offensively right now and are just bad. Jones had a four-game stretch with no touchdowns and has thrown an interception in all but only one game this year. The Giants will need him to play well if they have any chance of winning this game. The Bucs are allowing 253 passing yards per game and have surrendered nine touchdowns on the year. Jones needs to be smart with the football and limit the mistakes; the Giants could go down big early, allowing the Bucs to turn up the heat on the pass rush. This is a bad matchup for him this week.
RUNNING BACKS
Wayne Gallman ($5,200)
Since Saquon Barkley went down, the Giants have been looking for a replacement in the running game. They went out and signed Devonta Freeman off the street, and he hasn’t produced much since his arrival. He is out for this game with an ankle injury, which leaves us with Wayne Gallman. He hasn’t broken 50 yards on the ground this year and offers virtually nothing in the passing game. He’s not that good but also gets a daunting matchup with this Bucs run defense. The Bucs are the number one team in the league defending against the run as they allow just 48.7 yards per game. This running game is not going to do much against this Bucs defensive front.
Ronald Jones ($8,800), Leonard Fournette ($6,200)
In his return last week, Fournette carried the ball for 50 yards and caught six of seven targets for an additional 47 yards. Jones did a more than adequate job filling in while he was out, going for over 100 yards in all three games, but it looks like we might have an RBBC situation on our hands now. The Giants allow 86 rushing yards per game but have given up 361 receiving yards to running backs, which is fifth-worst. Jones has been dropping balls all season and has minimal trust from his quarterback, making Fournette an intriguing play in this one.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Golden Tate ($3,000), Sterling Shepard ($6,600), Darrius Slayton ($7,000)
With how this one is projected to play out, the Giants will be coming from behind, so getting one of these receivers into a lineup might be viable. Shepard returned from injury last week, catching six balls for 59 yards and a score, Tate has yet to go over 50 yards in any game this year, and Slayton (who is the best of three) goes back to being just a deep threat with Shepard back in the mix. I don’t feel particularly well about any of the options here, but if the Giants lose ground, they will go to the air.
Mike Evans ($10,800), Scotty Miller ($8,600)
Mike Evans gets a bump as the best receiver on this slate, and he should be able to come out of his slump. He has no touchdowns in his last two games and has just three catches for 47 yards, but remember Godwin is out for this one. In the three games, Godwin has missed this year, Evans has 267 yards and three scores. Scotty Miller found the end zone last week and had his first 100-yard game. The Giants are allowing 14 catches per game to receivers and 172 yards, and with Brady playing the way he is, these two are in a smash spot this week.
TIGHT END
Evan Engram ($5,800)
Is the sample size big enough for us to bail on Engram yet? He’s yet to find the end zone, hasn’t gone over 50 yards this year, and isn’t that good. Maybe a change of scenery will help him out. The Bucs are decent against the tight end allowing 330 yards and three scores on the year. There’s not much here to warrant Engram in a lineup this week.
Rob Gronkowski ($8,000)
After a slow start, Gronk has picked it up as of late with touchdowns now in back-to-back games and, more importantly, has seen a total of 16 targets in those two games. I expect that target share to remain there or slightly increase with no Godwin again this week. The Giants have allowed just one score to tight ends this year, but none of the teams they faced had a quality tight end (Kittle missed the game against the Giants). Brady and Gronk seem to back on the same page; I’m going to ride this out and see where we end up.
PICK
Bucs -12.5
LINEUP
- Leonard Fournette – Captain
- Tom Brady
- Scotty Miller
- Rob Gronkowski
- Sterling Shepard
- Golden Tate
