Dallas Cowboys (3-2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys -1.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
Breakdown
Coming off the bye week, the Chargers get back one of their key players on offense, Austin Ekeler. Ekeler had a great week 1 but left injured and hasn’t played since. The Chargers offense has been imposing so far, and getting Ekeler back will make that offense run even smoother. Justin Herbert has gotten off to a great start to the season. Herbert has passed for 1,106 yards, 7 passing touchdowns, and only 1 interception. Herbert has even added in 3 rushing touchdowns through 4 games so far. Herbert is dealing with an injury, a fractured middle finger on his non-throwing hand. He had it taped up in their last matchup, and he is not expected to miss any time with this injury. Keenan Allen has been elite through 4 games, bringing in 35 receptions for 434 yards. Allen even had an 18-catch game in week 3 against the Vikings. With the season-ending injury to Mike Williams, Allen has stepped up in a big way and will demand targets all season. Rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston, and third-year receiver, Joshua Palmer will need to step up and become solid pass-catching options in this offense.
The Cowboys are looking to bounce back after their surprising 42-10 loss to the 49ers last week. Dak Prescott will be looking to erase last week’s game from his memory where he tossed 3 interceptions. Dak has only thrown 5 touchdowns on the season and that needs to improve to get this Cowboys offense rolling again. Getting Tony Pollard more involved in the run game will be vital for the efficiency of the Cowboys offense. Pollard only saw 11 carries 2 weeks ago and only 8 carries last week. He saw over 20 touches in weeks 2 and 3. Pollard is also utilized heavily out of the backfield with receptions, already with 19 catches. The top receiving option, CeeDee Lamb has been held under 55 yards for three straight weeks. He is an elite talent and Dak needs to find ways to get him the ball more consistently. Second-year tight end, Jake Ferguson has been a bright spot for the offense and seems to be a weapon in the passing game.
Keys to Victory
Chargers: Justin Herbert controls the game. Herbert has gotten off to a great start to the season and is a huge reason why the Chargers have been competitive in all their games so far. With Ekeler back he will help the run game that has been struggling but Herbert will also utilize him heavily in the pass game. Let Herbert control the game against a tough Cowboys defense and we should see a good matchup.
Cowboys: Dak gets the ball out quickly. This offense has many good offensive weapons and they need to be utilized more efficiently. Pollard needs to get established in both the run game but also the passing scheme. Not only does Lamb need more opportunities, but Brandin Cooks has been heavily underutilized thus far. Cooks only has 9 receptions this season and they brought him in to be the other top receiver opposite Lamb.
Prop Bet Pick
Justin Herbert Over 11.5 Rush Yards (-113)
A random choice but Herbert has hit this line twice already this season and had another game with 11 rush yards. He seems to be utilizing his legs more this season than last year. Also, the Cowboys have a very good defensive line and could be chasing Herbert around all night. He is an athlete and can easily hit this line with just a few opportunities.
DFS Picks
Chargers Offense: Quentin Johnston. Johnston has not quite had a breakout game yet but the stage is set for the first-round pick this past offseason. Joshua Palmer was added to the injury report on Sunday so this could elevate Johnston in the depth chart and lead to more opportunities if Palmer is banged up.
Cowboys Offense: Brandon Aubrey. Yes, it’s a kicker, but he has been very good to start the season. Also, the main Cowboys weapons; Dak, Pollard, and Lamb all carry a high salary. The other offensive pass-catching options have been inconsistent to start the season. Aubrey has scored double-digit fantasy points in 4 of 5 games this season and the Chargers defense has given up 27 or more points in 3 of 4 games. Aubrey should have a few chances to kick some field goals and he’s proven he has the leg to hit from over 50 yards.
