Wednesday NBA DFS Picks
Every Wednesday, I’ll be diving into a loaded NBA schedule to find you some legitimate difference-makers for the DraftKings main slate — with the help of our NBA Advanced Metrics, NBA Optimizer, and NBA DraftKings Projections pages.
What you’ll see when you come to this weekly column are our four favorite values of the night. Whether that’s an All-Star that is priced too low and is bound to explode or an absolute bargain that is capable of supporting your high-scoring studs, this is where you’ll want to look before submitting your lineups.
Last week, Lonzo Ball ($6,800), Franz Wagner ($3,900), and Marcus Smart ($5,400) went absolutely wild for fantasy players. The three of them combined to score 116.25 points on DraftKings, but Robert Covington’s second-quarter ejection ended up being a crushing blow to those that rode with everyone in this piece. Had Covington turned in a mere mediocre performance, it could have been a huge night for those that read this column regularly.
With that out of the way, here are our four targets for the NBA’s 9-game slate on December 1, when the Boston Celtics host the Philadelphia 76ers and the Sacramento Kings take on the Los Angeles Clippers as part of an NBA TV doubleheader:
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Devonte’ Graham, New Orleans Pelicans (vs. Dallas Mavericks) – $4,600
Devonte’ Graham has had a rough time adjusting in his first year in New Orleans, as the 26-year-old is shooting just 37.6 percent from the floor and 34.2 percent from deep. Graham shot over 37.0 percent from the three-point line in each of the previous two seasons, so we know he is capable of being more efficient as a shooter. He’s also averaging just 4.6 assists per game after dishing out 5.4 last year and 7.5 the year before that.
While Graham hasn’t been at his best with the Pelicans just yet, he is playing 30.9 minutes per game. The fact that the playing time is still there is the most important thing, as Graham is still getting a ton of on-ball opportunities on a New Orleans team that clearly believes in his talent — the team paid him handsomely this summer. Now, he gets a crack at a Mavericks team that doesn’t defend the perimeter very well.
Look for Graham to hit a couple of triples in a game in which he should be able to score at least 12 points while also dishing out five or so assists. He’s also averaging 1.3 steals per game this year, so anything he adds in that regard will help.
Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks (vs. Charlotte Hornets) – $6,900
Jrue Holiday is averaging 41.0 DraftKings points per game over the last three contests, and he’s coming off a game in which he had 47.25 against the Indiana Pacers. Holiday is always a good bet to score 18 or so points, but he’s also the type of player that fills up the stat sheet.
On the season, the 31-year-old is averaging 14.8 points, 5.9 assists, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game. He did, however, start the year playing fewer minutes than usual as he came back from an injury, but he is now looking more and more like the stud he was all of last year. Don’t expect that to change in a meeting with the Hornets.
Charlotte plays at the league’s third-fastest pace this season, while Milwaukee is eighth in the league in that category. This should be an extremely up-and-down game, and the Hornets lack the perimeter defenders necessary to contain Holiday. There aren’t many players in the league that are better at getting to the rim, and LaMelo Ball isn’t going to be able to stay in front of him. The Hornets also don’t have rim protectors.
P.J. Washington, Charlotte Hornets (vs. Milwaukee Bucks) – $5,100
Mason Plumlee has been out with a leg injury for the Hornets recently. That has given P.J. Washington more opportunities in the team’s frontcourt. Washington has played 65 minutes over the last two games, and he is averaging 29.5 fantasy points per game over the last three contests.
Washington has a tough matchup with the Bucks on deck, but we have already gone into how fast-paced this game should be. Sure, Giannis Antetokounmpo might meet him at the rim a few times, but Washington is going to get plenty of opportunities to make plays with the ball in his hands. Whether it’s picking and popping for an open triple or operating as the roll man with Ball in the pick and roll, this price is too good for a guy that is going to see big minutes and a prominent role.
Washington has also racked up three blocks and three steals over the last two games, which is something that simply can’t be ignored.
Duncan Robinson, Miami Heat (vs. Cleveland Cavaliers) – $4,700
Duncan Robinson has been a relatively tough player to figure out this season, as he’s hitting just 32.8 percent of his threes after shooting 40.8 percent from deep a year ago. Robinson is, however, playing 28.9 minutes per game on the year, showing that Erik Spoelstra isn’t worried about his sharpshooter. Truth be told, he shouldn’t be.
Not only did Robinson shoot 40.8 percent from deep last year, but he also shot 44.6 percent from deep two seasons ago. This is a proven marksman from deep and he has attempted at least 8.3 threes per game in each of the last three years. Considering Miami continues to give Robinson the chance to shoot his way out of this slump, fantasy players will want to keep going back to him.
The law of averages suggests that Robinson is going to get blistering hot relatively soon, and he just might go off against the Cavaliers. Last year, Robinson averaged 17.3 points per game in three meetings with Cleveland, and it wouldn’t be shocking if the basket looked big for him again in this one. The 27-year-old also has some sneaky other skills, so it’s entirely possible that he pitches in with a couple of rebounds, assists or steals.
