NBA DFS Picks
Every Wednesday, I’ll be diving into a loaded NBA schedule to find you some legitimate difference-makers for the DraftKings main slate — with the help of our NBA Advanced Metrics, NBA Optimizer, and NBA DraftKings Projections pages.
What you’ll see when you come to this weekly column are our four favorite values of the night. Whether that’s an All-Star that is priced too low and is bound to explode or an absolute bargain that is capable of supporting your high-scoring studs, this is where you’ll want to look before submitting your lineups.
Last week, we got stellar performances from two of our cheaper options, as Devonte’ Graham ($4,600) and P.J. Washington ($5,100) both played well. Graham had 13 points, six assists, and two steals against the Dallas Mavericks, which isn’t far off from the 15 points and five assists we predicted he’d have in this article. Meanwhile, Washington filled up the stat sheet with nine points, 10 boards, four assists, and a block against the Milwaukee Bucks. The two of them combined to score 57.75 fantasy points on DraftKings, and we’ll now look to find you more value like that here.
Check out our four targets for the NBA’s massive 13-game slate on December 8, when the Miami Heat host the Milwaukee Bucks and the Portland Trail Blazers face the Golden State Warriors as part of an ESPN doubleheader:
Norman Powell, Portland Trail Blazers (vs. Golden State Warriors) – $4,800
Norman Powell is coming off of his best game of the season, as the 28-year-old had 29 points and five rebounds against the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday. Powell has now scored at least 15 points in seven of his last eight games, and he’ll continue to see an increased workload until Damian Lillard returns from an injury. That workload has definitely helped him produce in daily fantasy, with Powell having at least 24 DraftKings points in four of the last eight.
The Blazers now take on a Warriors team that hasn’t been easy to score on this year. Golden State has the best defensive rating in basketball this season, but the team also plays at the sixth-fastest pace in the league. That means that the Blazers might not get great looks all game, but it’s likely they’ll get more possessions than usual. Also, If Golden State’s defense is weak anywhere, it’s in the backcourt. Steph Curry and Jordan Poole are the two worst defenders in the team’s starting lineup, so Powell should be able to create against them.
On November 26, Powell had 15 points on 6-of-9 shooting against the Warriors. Look for him to be a bit more aggressive in this one, especially with CJ McCollum now dealing with a collapsed right lung. This is going to be Powell’s show on the offensive end. It might not look pretty, but he’ll have to put up numbers.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, New Orleans Pelicans (vs. Denver Nuggets) – $4,600
Over the last 10 games, the Nuggets are dead last in the NBA in defensive rating. Mike Malone’s team looked great on that end of the floor to start the year, but the team is now slowly sliding back. The Nuggets now face a Pelicans team that is seventh in the league in offensive rating over the last six games. That stretch has included New Orleans going 4-3 and looking a lot more competitive than it did to start the year.
With the Pelicans facing a team that is struggling to get stops, it might be worth looking at Nickeil Alexander-Walker in this one. The 23-year-old has had a really rough year as a shooter, as he’s hitting just 36.2 percent of his shots from the floor and only 30.1 percent from the outside. We have, however, seen him play a lot better than this and he’s going to turn it around sooner rather than later.
Considering Alexander-Walker is still getting 28.8 minutes per game this season, this price is simply too low for a player with his ability. Look for him to be in attack mode early in this one and don’t be surprised if he scores 30 or so DraftKings points in this game. He had 21.25 against the Houston Rockets on Sunday, but he did not shoot the ball well. A more efficient scoring night will help him reach another level.
Lonzo Ball, Chicago Bulls (vs. Cleveland Cavaliers) – $7,500
Lonzo Ball certainly isn’t cheap compared to the other guys on this list, but he should be one of the night’s highest-scoring guards. Ball is coming off a performance against the Nuggets in which he had 20 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and four steals. He also broke out of a shooting slump by going 4 for 8 from the outside.
With DeMar DeRozan now in the NBA’s COVID-19 health and safety protocols, Ball is going to have an even higher usage rate than normal. And Chicago is going to need him to not be shy with his jumper. The 24-year-old can occasionally be a bit too unselfish, passing up good looks to get his teammates involved. That likely won’t be the case as the Bulls wait for DeRozan to return.
The Cavaliers aren’t an easy opponent to face for any team, as they are currently fourth in the league in defensive rating. However, the strength of Cleveland’s defense is on the inside, where Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are both excellent rim protectors. Being that Ball is more of a jump shooter, he shouldn’t have to challenge those guys all that often. He’ll simply spot up from three and do his work in transition.
Mike Conley, Utah Jazz (vs. Minnesota Timberwolves) – $5,500
Mike Conley is going up against a Timberwolves defense that has played very well to start the year, but it’s fair to question whether or not Minnesota is capable of keeping up this level of play. The Timberwolves have undoubtedly made some sound strategic changes on the defensive end, but they’re definitely more of a top-15 defense than the top-5 defense they are performing as right now.
With that said, you shouldn’t be afraid to go to Conley in this game. The veteran point guard has had at least 28 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games, and he recently had 48.5 in a game against the Boston Celtics on December 3. Conley is shooting the three better than he has in his entire career this year, as he’s burying 47.5 percent of his triples. He won’t keep that up all season, but he’s a good bet to make a couple in this one.
Conley should also contribute in the assist column, and he’s always a threat to rack up a ton of steals. The 34-year-old has had at least one steal in all but six of his games this year, and he’s playing against a team that has a couple of careless guards. Overall, this is a solid matchup for a player with a basketball IQ as high as Conley’s. He should make the young Minnesota guards pay for any mistakes they make.
