NFL DFS Picks
Bye, bye, byes! Week 14 marks the end of the bye weeks. There are four teams off this week and they have some serious fantasy firepower. Out of action, this week are the Colts, Dolphins, Eagles, and Patriots. We do not get the option of locking Jonathan Taylor in our lineups. There are still 11 games on the main slate. Some value could open up in the 49ers backfield if Elijah Mitchell does not clear concussion protocol and Adam Theilen’s ankle injury could make KJ Osborn a solid play. There are other injury situations to monitor on top of and as always, be sure to check the inactive lists and follow the breaking injury news. It can often result in a “free square” for your lineup. Each week Fantasy Data will bring you 20 players that we like for the Draftkings Sunday main slate. Let us get right to it.
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Studs to Splurge For
Here we will highlight two players at each position that are in the top-five of their respective position and are deemed worthy of “paying up” for in your lineup. Please note these players will likely be highly owned so if you are looking to differentiate, you will want to pull more players from the next two sections.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes | $8000 | LV @ KC
Patrick Mahomes is coming off back-to-back sub-par performances, something that is becoming too much of the norm for him. However, in his last game against the division rival Las Vegas Raiders, the stud quarterback put up 39.24 DK points against them, on the road. Surprisingly, Mahomes is averaging almost nine points less at home. It is worth noting that the Texas Tech grad has never scored below 18.3 points against the Raiders across seven games played. It is a good week to pay up for him.
Justin Herbert | $7100 | NYG @ LAC
Unlike Mahomes, Justin Herbert has not been struggling. The price here seems way too low for a player that has posted over 24.72 DK points in four of his last five, including two over 34.64. The New York Giants have been solid against the position this season but have given up 18.8 points per game over the past four, including 20.3 to Tua Tongvoiloa. The Giants will be flying cross country and facing a high-powered Chargers offense. Things may change if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams remain out due to Covid.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon | $7700 | SF @ CIN
Joe Mixon finally came back down to earth in Week 13, but it was a product of the Los Angeles Chargers getting out to a huge lead early. Despite that fact, Mixon still posted 19 carries for 54 yards and a touchdown but was not able to be involved in the passing game as he has been as of late. It was the sixth straight game he found paydirt and the San Francisco 49ers give up the 20th most points to the running back position and allow the fifth-most points over their past five games with 22.5 DK points allowed. Look for Mixon and the Bengals to get back on track in Week 14.
Leonard Fournette | $7400 | BUF @ TB
Do not look now, but Leonard Fournette leads all running backs in receptions with 58. The matchup does not look great on paper but the Buffalo Bills can be run on as evidenced by the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor tore apart this defense as well and while Fournette is not quite in the same class as them, he can do work, especially in the passing game. The former Jaguar has seen 36 targets over his last five games, good for an average of 7.2 per, giving him a solid floor at potentially low ownership.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill | $8500 | LV @ KC
Tyreek Hill has struggled along with his quarterbacks and drops have been a big issue of late. As was the case with Mahomes, Hill had a big game against the Raiders last time out and averages 19.9 points across 12 games versus the division rival. Volume is king and the speedster ranks second in targets at 127, just nine behind league leader Cooper Kupp. Look for the Chiefs’ offense to get back on track in this one and win it with offense instead of their improved defense for a change.
Keenan Allen | $7600 |NYG @ LAC
Keenan Allen has been a model of consistency, as usual. Watch the reports this week on him playing after being placed on the Covid list. Allen is vaccinated so should be cleared in time for kickoff. The reliable wideout has been in double-digits in every game this season, including three of his last five over 22 DK points. The Giants are allowing 20.3 points per game to the receiver position over that same span. As is the case with Hill, volume is king, and Allen checks in third in the league in targets at 124.
Tight End
Travis Kelce | $7400 | LV @ KC
Perhaps the member of the Chiefs we will be targeting the most of the bunch is Travis Kelce. Over his past seven games against the Raiders, Kelce has five touchdowns and is averaging 21.29 DK points across that span. The division rival ranks 31st against the position on the season and the stud tight end is about as sure of a thing as there is in fantasy sports this week. Ownership is projected to be under 10%, so you will be rostering someone that gives you a bit of leverage as well. Were it not for the cost, Kelce would be listed as a favorite this week.
Mark Andrews | $5900 | BAL @ CLE
Mark Andrews only trails Travis Kelce by 1.3 points per game average and is $1500 cheaper. The matchup is favorable and the veteran tight end just put up 16.5 DK points against Cleveland two weeks ago. Baltimore is coming off a bye week and should be well-rested. Andrews is dominating targets lately and rookie Rashod Bateman has fallen off some the past few games. The Oklahoma grad will be heavily involved yet again, especially in the red zone.
Sleepers to Separate From the Pack
Up next we give you some players to help differentiate your lineup from the masses and give you the edge you need to compete in some of the bigger tournaments. Just like the section above, we highlight two players at each position except now instead of studs, you get players that are expected to be less than 10% owned on the main slate.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson | $7400 | BAL @ CLE
Speaking of the Baltimore Ravens, what is going on with Lamar Jackson? It has been three straight weeks under 20 DK points for the dynamic quarterback. The Ravens offense as a whole has been stymied but should be able to get back on track in Week 14. As mentioned earlier, they are coming off a bye and should be well-rested, especially for this late in the season. The Browns are banged up and have played five straight tough games. Jackson had gone over 26.5 DK points in every game started versus Cleveland before the Week 12 letdown. This is a prime bounce-back spot for the entire team.
Dak Prescott | $6700 | DAL @ WAS
Dak Prescott is getting a dream matchup in Week 14 versus a rival Washington Football Team that ranks 32nd against the position. Prescott himself has been a bit up and down, but is coming off a 28.3 point performance against the Las Vegas Raiders on Thanksgiving. Tony Pollard is questionable in this one meaning the Cowboys will be down a key player in the running game. The plan was likely already in place to attack through the air and missing Pollard should serve to reinforce the game plan. Dak is 11th in the league with 416 pass attempts. This trend should continue in Week 14, giving him tremendous upside at less than 10% ownership.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs | $6200 | LV @ KC
Kenyan Drake was lost for the season in Week 13 versus the Washington Football Team. Even before that injury, Jacobs had already set a career-high in receptions. Peyton Barber and Jalen Richard will not back up the Alabama grad but look for a repeat of the usage from last week. Jacobs caught all nine of his targets en route to a season-high 24 DK points against a good run defense. The Chiefs have been better versus the running back position of late, but the PPR upside here is too much to ignore. The game script favors the passing game being more prevalent than not. At $6200, there is just too much value to pass up.
Cordarrelle Patterson | $6900 | ATL @ CAR
Cordarrelle Patterson has yet another tough opponent on deck in Week 14. At this point, the journeyman is becoming matchup proof. In Week 9 against the New Orleans Saints, Patterson put up 22.6 DK points against what is thought to be the best run defense in the league. Last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, C-Patt put up 12.6 points against the other best defense against the run out there. The former Bears and Vikings utility player averaged 6.0 yards per carry but could only muster 13 carries. Look for him to be the focal point again against the division rival Panthers.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb | $7200 | DAL @ WAS
We just mentioned how much we like Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys passing attack this week. Pairing him with his favorite receiver is a good way to start building a team for Week 14. The Football Team ranks 27th against the WR position and Lamb is coming off 13 targets versus the New Orleans Saints in Week 13. CeeDee ranks 20th in targets with 90, but keep in mind he missed a game. Oddly enough, the splits are much better on the road as well. At home, the Oklahoma alum is averaging 12,9 points compared to a healthy 21.1 on the road. A Prescott/Lamb stack only puts you out $13,900 and gives you plenty of cap to not have to force value elsewhere.
Terry McLaurin |$7000| DAL @ WAS
A common strategy in NFL DFS is to correlate players with members of the opposition. If this game shoots out like we think (47.5 total), then we can expect Terry McLaurin to be involved on the other end of things. The Dallas Cowboys are even worse against the wideout position at 28th and McLaurin is the focal point of the offense for Washington, especially with Logan Thomas now out yet again. The Ohio State standout is coming off a poor performance in Week 13 and will be extra motivated to perform against the division rival Cowboys.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski | $6000 | BUF @ TB
Everyone’s favorite actor makes the list this week despite a tough matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Rob Gronkowski is second in points per game on the slate behind only Travis Kelce. The veteran tight end has seen 25 targets over his past three games and the connection with quarterback Tom Brady is as good as it was in their heyday back in New England. Gronk is coming off back-to-back 20+ point games and is sure to see plenty of targets in this one. The Bills have not faced a great lineup of tight ends this season and Kelce was able to post 17.7 DK points against them in Week 9. Ownership will be low due to the perceived bad matchup, giving you another place to leverage the field.
Gerald Everett | $3500 | SEA @ HOU
Speaking of targets, Gerald Everett has quietly seen 27 of them over the Seahawks past four games. Sadly, the production has not been there as Russell Wilson continues to get back to form post-surgery. The Houston Texans are up next and rank 23rd against the position. Seattle is riding high after beating the division-rival 49ers at home in Week 13. Look for them to continue their winning ways and attack the weak Texans linebackers with Everett but have it actually pay off this week. At $3500, we do not have much to lose and 10 points will do just fine here.
Fantasy Data Favorites
In this section, we will give you one play from each position for the week that we like the most. This will be a player that likely will give you a high upside at a lower cost than their counterparts and also come with a low ownership projection. Here you go!
Quarterback
Taysom Hill | $5600 | NO @ NYJ
Taysom Hill threw four interceptions but still managed to score 27.66 DK points versus the Dallas Cowboys. The versatile quarterback did suffer a finger injury, leading to some of those poor throws but is all systems go according to head coach Sean Peyton. The Saints head to the Big Apple to face a New York Jets defense that is allowing just under 20 points per game to the quarterback position the past five games. Coincidentally all five of those quarterbacks are mobile like Hill. Wentz, Tua, Minshew, Josh Allen, and even Tyrod Taylor each went over 15 points against them. Look for Hill to find success and with the finger injury, be somewhat low owned. The upside here is enormous, especially with Alvin Kamara potentially returning to catch passes out of the backfield.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon | $5400 | DET @ DEN
The fantasy community everywhere is celebrating Javonte Williams and his breakout game in Week 13. Melvin Gordon is back practicing and there is nothing to suggest things will not go back to the way they were before the injury to the veteran. The Detroit Lions have been better against the run as of late, but still give up the goods fantasy-wise. Gordon should be well-rested and back to his double-digit scoring ways in a great matchup at home. With all the hype around Williams, the former Charger will likely be close to zero percent owned. A touchdown and a few catches easily pay off his small price tag in Week 14.
Wide Receiver
Elijah Moore | $5900 | NO @ NYJ
Watch the injury news on this one, but Elijah Moore has quietly scored the second-most DK points over the past five weeks, trailing only Justin Jefferson. Moore has a tasty matchup against the Swiss cheese secondary that belongs to the New Orleans Saints. With the New Orleans offense clicking a little better under Taysom Hill, look for the Jets to be playing from behind a good portion of the day. Over the past three games, Moore has seen 31 targets. It does not seem to matter who is under center, the rookie is getting looks from all of them and turned that into solid production. This is another low-cost play that allows you to go with a balanced lineup across the board if you choose to go that route.
Tight End
Dawson Knox | $5000 | BUF @ TB
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are pretty good across the board versus skill position players except for the tight ends. Look for the Buffalo Bills to attack them here and get Dawson Knox back on track after a couple of brutal drops on Monday Night Football. Despite terrible weather conditions, Knox still saw six targets and continues to be a favorite target of quarterback Josh Allen. The up-and-coming tight end has seen 20 targets over his last four, including 10 against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11. The entire Bills offense better get on track or they will be on the outside looking in come playoff time.
Summing It All Up
As we all know, football is unpredictable, we make these picks using the data available to us at fantasydata.com and try to help our readers make educated, thoughtful decisions when creating their DK lineup. If you find this helpful or have any comments, be sure to notate them below. Thank you for reading.
