Staff NFL Fantasy Predictions for 2021

FantasyData NFL Predictions

The FantasyData staff have compiled a group prediction article for the 2021 NFL Season. Some of these predictions are bold, some are not. The goal is to see who can get the most right at the end of the season for bragging rights. 

Staff Insight

Tell us more about one of your Breakout Fantasy predictions? Why do you like them?        

Corbin Young – Jerry Jeudy is my top breakout wide receiver candidate. Last season, Jeudy earned the 6th most Air Yards at 1,536 with a 21.2% (No.31) target share and a 31.5% (No. 25) Air Yards Share. With the inefficient quarterback play by Drew Lock, Jeudy wasn’t efficient with 7.6 (No. 76) yards per target and a -16.5 (No. 82) Production Premium. With Courtland Sutton healthy and hopefully, Teddy Bridgewater leading the team, Jeudy is ready to breakout in 2021.       

Jess Jones – One or both of the TEs in New England is going to have a huge year in that system. McDaniels has previously made Gronk and Hernandez into top producers together and with the lack of experience at the receiver positions, it’s easy to conclude Cam Newton will look for one of those big guys often. He did it with Greg Olsen in Carolina and now he has 2 to choose from. I’d also like to mention the Chiefs remade their OL this year and seem more committed to running the ball. As long as Clyde Edwards-Helaire can hold up, he’s going to get a high-volume workload as both a runner and pass-catcher.      

Jody Smith – When you really look at the Rams’ offense last season, there wasn’t that much of a gap between Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. I don’t think the drop-off will be as severe as some think, plus, Sean McVay trusted Henderson in short yardage. Considering Malcolm Brown is now in Miami, Henderson has a clear path to double-digit touchdowns if, and that’s a big if, he can stay healthy.       

Brian Buckey – The clearest way to a big fantasy season for a quarterback is rushing prowess. Trey Lance is an athletic stud at the quarterback position and is a natural dual-threat quarterback. I think he is a top 12 QB the moment he takes over the job in San Francisco with upside to be even better. With Kyle Shanahan designing an offense to highlight his best qualities, Lance could be in line for a huge rookie season and could be thought of as a top-tier QB during drafts next season.      

Matt MacKay – Jalen Hurts is my breakout fantasy quarterback in 2021, primarily because of the elite rushing upside he offers. In only four starts during a chaotic rookie season, Hurts carried 63 times for 357 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5.7 YPC. Nick Sirianni steps in as the Eagles’ new head coach and could rely on heavy personnel, running 21, 22, and 13 personnel groupings that load the line of scrimmage with tight ends and the backfield with a fullback or second running back. Sirianni managed to lead the Indianapolis Colts to two top-ten scoring seasons in his three years as the offensive coordinator, so expect him to apply a similar approach to using rookie Kenneth Gainwell and veteran Boston Scott in the Nyheim Hines role, meaning 70+ targets and close to 100 carries. Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz form a dynamic duo at tight end for blocking and receiving, allowing Hurts to have two viable targets closer to the hash marks and line of scrimmage. A healthy offensive line headlined by Lane Johnson and Andre Dillard at the tackle positions will open up wider lanes for Hurts on designed RPOs and improvised scrambles alike. The key to unlocking the offense with Hurts is the 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Heisman-winning rookie wide receiver Devonta Smith. The quick-twitch, sure-handed speedster has the receiving ability needed to take the top off of defensive coverage, opening up easier underneath routes for others to take advantage of, allowing Hurts to convert the down markers with quick efficiency. Expect more play-action, screens, and pre-snap motion with the depth Philadelphia has at running back, which translates into easy passes with chunk gains for Hurts in 2021. Dual-threat quarterbacks are lucrative fantasy currency and with Hurts’ ADP dropping to 90.6 (QB9), I like him to breakout as a top-five fantasy quarterback in his first full season as a starter.       

Jake Oliver – Daniel Jones is my breakout fantasy QB in 2021, primarily because of Saquon coming back. Danny Dimes will get a more open pocket allowing him more time to throw deep or dump the ball off to Saquon. Saquon’s receiving yardage and receiving touchdowns will greatly increase Danny’s overall production. Not to mention, I expect Danny to still rush decently which always help in the fantasy area. Finally, Danny has a new WR1 in Kenny Golladay. While I don’t trust Golly to stay healthy the whole season, he should help Dime’s in multiple games and increase his overall yardage and touchdowns. Laviska is my breakout WR since I trust in his ability, he has a brand new QB in TLaw, and has been getting tons of praise from the coaching staff. Viska is able to be used in various ways too which gives him more opportunity to score fantasy points. Trautman is my breakout TE simply because of opportunity. With MT out, Trautman is now the #2 option in the Saints offense. Even if they go heavy rushing, they still have to throw. In this case, Trautman is going to get fed plenty of targets. More targets= more fantasy scoring opportunity. More opportunity is the best thing you can get in fantasy.       

Bradley Stalder – Anthony Firkser is my breakout TE in this Tennessee offense. Jonnu Smith is gone (along with his 65 targets, 16% target share, and 30.5% RedZone target share) to New England. Firkser’s immediate backup is Geoff Swaim who hasn’t had more than 32 targets in any season since 2015. It isn’t as though Firkser was a slouch last season. Firkser already had a 12.2% target share in the Tennessee offense last season. We can expect a bump both in targets and EndZone Targets. Last season Firkser was TE25 in targets, TE23 in receptions, and TE26 in receiving yards. Firkser automatically flirts with top-12 TE target share even if he only gets half of Jonnu’s targets. Of TEs who had at least 50 targets, Firkser had the 11th highest PFF receiving grade, 4th highest HandsDrop Grade,  and 2nd highest catch percentage (only behind Robert Tonyan). I’m not concerned about the addition of Julio Jones, as Julio has missed 8 games over the past two seasons, and only earned a 20% target share while with the Atlanta Falcons in 2020. If you are completely punting the TE position, Firkser offers unheralded target share upside, even if he only had 1 receiving TD each of the past three seasons.       

Billy Muzio – I have Deebo ranked ahead of Aiyuk in 2021. Aiyuk is talented, but his 2020 performance was bolstered by injuries to SF’s WR and RB core. Most drafters are scared of Deebos ADOT, but his YAC should counteract that concern, and there is no way he has that low of a target depth for a whole season. In his last full season (2019), Deebo was WR 5 in YAC with 5.7 per game, WR #8 in catch rate, WR #12 in RedZone targets, and WR #5 in fantasy points per target. With a much-improved efficiency expected in 2021, I expect Deebo to regain his alpha role in SF. I have Deebo projected for a 20.5 target share, 121 targets, 955 yards, and 6 scores. Draft him with confidence in your fantasy drafts, 2-3 rounds later than Brandon Aiyuk.

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Tell us more about one of your Bust Fantasy predictions? Why do you NOT like them?

Corbin Young – After leading the Cowboys with 130 targets (No. 12) and a 21.1% (No. 32) target share, Amari Cooper is a receiver I’m fading in 2021. As WR12 per Underdog ADP, CeeDee Lamb is prime to overtake him and the ADP reflects that. Cooper is still recovering from the offseason ankle surgery and I’m fading any injury optimism with him. Although the Cowboys’ offense looks to bounce back after losing Dak Prescott last season, we have several other receivers going around Cooper to provide similar production include Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, and D.J. Moore.       

Jess Jones – My definition of a bust is relevant to their ADP in drafts and only Big Ben is going late from that list. Josh Jacobs is the one I have the most concern about at ADP. He’s going around the 4th round of drafts but doesn’t have a pass-catching role and now he has Kenyan Drake to take some of his carries away so he can make it through a full season. Drake will get the majority of targets out of that backfield while Jacobs will have to make his hay on 1st downs and manageable 2nd downs. The downside risk is too high for a player in that role a that ADP.      

Jody Smith – Kliff Kingsbury did not trust Chase Edmonds as a runner and Edmonds only averaged 3.2 yards per carry in the two games in which he received 10-plus carries last season. Edmonds is just not built to run between the tackles, but James Conner certainly is. The Cardinals have averaged 20 rushing TDs per season under Kingsbury and I think it’s Conner who punches in most of those plus takes over the majority of the first and second-down rushing attempts. 

Bradley Stalder – Mike Evans is my WR37 in projected fantasy points. Let the hate flow through you. Is it out now? Good. Let me tell you why. I have Mike Evans projected for 66/111-1019-7. Mike Evans set a career-high with 13 touchdowns on a career-low (by 14) 109 targets while playing all 16 games. Evans does not have the 148 or 173 target ceiling he showed in 2105 or 2016. He is surrounded by capable pass-catchers. Chris Godwin had an 18.9% target share last season. Antonio Brown had a 19.9% target share last season. Gronk had a 12.7% target share (so did OJ Howard). Leonard Fournette had a 10% target share. Scotty Miller had a 10% target share. That’s 84.2% of the target share (not counting newly acquired Gio Bernard, returning rusher Ronald Jones, rookie Jaelon Darden, veteran Cameron Brate, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, etc.). Mike Evans will get targets, but even with a pass-first offense, he only commanded an 18% target share, good for 52nd among all WRs (for perspective, Evans was 17th in 2019, and 21st in 2018 in target share), even with Godwin missing games last season due to injury. Evans’ TD numbers are the least sticky of his stats and, while he may be used closer to the goal line as a receiving threat (4th in RedZone targets), Evans was 24th in Air Yards per game. Long gone are the days of Jameis Winston’s inefficiencies buying Mike Evans into the top 10 among WRs due to passing yards or volume. In fact, Antonio Brown had a higher target % average over the last 8 games than Godwin or Evans. There needs to be tempered optimism for Evans repeating what was an extraordinarily efficient season. Tom Brady loves to spread the ball around, and Brady’s tendencies should steer you clear of Evans being drafted among the top 12 of WRs.       

Billy Muzio – Chase Claypool is my top bust candidate for 2021. Being drafted as WR 26 on average through July and August, at the end of the 5th round, Claypool comes with a steep price for drafters in 2021. Claypool is being drafted ahead of names with proven consistency like Odell Beckham Jr, Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown, Kenny Golladay, and fellow wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster. Drafting Claypool at ADP assumes he is the WR 2 in this Pittsburgh offense and will remain on the field during two WR sets. This was not the case in their first preseason game where JuJu out-snapped Claypool in two WR set 3-1 as Claypool rotated in as the primary number three receiver. Claypool’s metrics were less than stellar as well in 2020, finishing 2020 as WR #86 in contested catch rate, WR #55 in yards per target, WR #84 in target separation, WR #78 in snap share, and WR #84 in true catch rate. Drafting Claypool at ADP assumes he maintains his HOG rate, Deep targets, and air yard efficiencies while improving in every lackluster category. Claypool is currently being drafted at his ceiling, and you should take the 2 rounds of discounted ADP on the true WR2 in this offense; JuJu Smith-Schuster.       

Brian Buckey – I think it’s pretty clear to see that Ben Roethlisberger is not what he used to be. The end of last season was a disaster for Big Ben. With the good old eye test, he looked like he might be done. He has good weapons around him with his top three receivers. But everything was short and quick in the passing game last season because Big Ben could not throw the ball downfield and the offensive line was suspect in pass protection. I think we see better from Big Ben this season, but last season showed what the downside can be.      

Jake Oliver – I have Claypool and Big Ben as my busts for WR and QB respectively due to two things: Opportunity/Age. Big Ben is not going to be throwing the ball nearly as much. The Steelers didn’t have a running game at all last year. This meant they had to throw the ball non-stop. Now they have Najee, a big RB who is going to be fed. This means there are gonna be much fewer targets to go to the WR’s. Juju and Diontae are the top targets. They are also 1-2 on depth chart. Claypool is #3. Yet Claypool is going extremely high in drafts right now. Far too high for me. I don’t see him finishing in the WR15-25 range which is where he is being taken. Big Ben is also just old. His arm isn’t what it used to be. He can’t keep flinging it around. Claypool should still have big weeks. However, overall I don’t see a path to consistent fantasy relevance unless one of the top WR’s are hurt. Miles is my bust @RB because of the committee he is in and the fact that Hurts is a rushing QB. In fact, I’d be surprised to see Miles finish top-20 RB’s in fantasy.       

Matt MacKay – Chase Edmonds was only given a 37.6% opportunity share, ranking 42nd amongst all running backs in 2020 including behind Wayne Gallman, Phillip Lindsay, and Giovani Bernard. Kliff Kingsbury runs heavy 10 personnel, meaning four receivers split out wide with no tight ends and one running back. Rest assured James Conner will be fed plenty of opportunities, particularly on valuable goal-line and short-yardage downs. He’s 20 pounds heavier and four inches taller than Edmonds and averaged a 63.9% opportunity share as the Steelers primary running back behind an atrocious offensive line in 2020. Conner earned Pro-Bowl honors back in 2018 and recently turned 26 years old.  Entering his fifth season in the league, Conner gets a change of scene and lands in a high-octane offense that secured All-Pro C Rodney Hudson in a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason, which will help open up more running lanes that Kenyan Drake struggled to hit as the team’s power-back in 2020. Edmonds will definitely see more targets, which are the crux of value in PPR formats, but between Conner and Kyler Murray soaking up valuable goal-line touches, Edmonds only presents a good floor without offering a big ceiling, something that is concerning when drafting him at his current ADP of 55.8 as the RB27. You don’t want your RB3 to be withheld from goal-line carries and it’s likely Edmonds’ opportunity share with Conner winds up looking similar to his timeshare with Drake, meaning Conner will still eat into Edmonds’ target share that yielded just 53 total targets in 2020. Elite wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins demands 150+ targets, while Rondale Moore, A.J. Green, and Christian Kirk will challenge as the WR2, stretching the field to allow Murray to continue evading defenders with insane quickness to effectively move the chains. I’d rather use my fifth-round pick on options like Kareem Hunt, Tee Higgins, or Tyler Lockett. 

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• Jake Oliver –  @DarthDbacks
• Corbin Young – @corbin_young21