NFL Pick ‘Em Week 9
Last week started out rough, getting six of the first seven games wrong but a strong run in the afternoon games resulted in a middling 8-7 ATS mark for the week. Some of those games were tantalizingly close. That record could easily have been 10-5 or dipped to 6-9, so a small win is just that, a win.
This week, a full four teams are off so we only have 14 games to handicap. I’ll try to keep the winning ways going.
2021 ATS record season-to-date: 64-55-2
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-6.5)
This won’t exactly be “must-see” tv. The biggest ramifications in this contest will be for draft position, but on a positive note, Houston actually hasn’t given Miami their No. 1 selection yet, so it’s already a win for the Texans. Entering this game, the Texans have been respectably against the spread, compiling a 4-4 mark both ATS and in over/unders. Miami is merely 2-5-1 versus the number and also 4-4 on totals. The Texans should get QB Tyrod Taylor back and we’ll see if Tua Tagovailoa is motivated to dispatch a team that was rumored to be sending their own disgruntled signal-caller to take his job. There may be some value on the Texans if Taylor returns, and Miami has been a poor home team when favored.
- My Prediction: Miami 23, Houston 20
- My Pick: Texans +6.5
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6)
Uncertainty at quarterback is keeping this line relatively modes. The Saints are clearly the better team on both sides of the ball, but Taysom Hill still hasn’t been officially cleared from the league’s concussion protocol. I generally like picking the Saints at home, and the fact that Matt Ryan could still be dealing with a hand injury makes me like that plan more. I’d feel better if I knew who was going to be under center but the Saints have covered 4-of-5 in this series.
- My Prediction: New Orleans 27, Atlanta 20
- My Pick: Saints -6
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants (+3)
The Raiders are the better team but it has been a rough couple of weeks for Las Vegas. Still. this line is suspicious to me as the house is telling us they think the Giants and Raiders are essentially even on a neutral field. New York is 1-3 against the spread at home, while Las Vegas has won 2-of-3 ATS away from Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders should also be healthier coming off their bye and boast one of the league’s top cornerback duos that should have no issues slowing down a banged-up Giants’ receiving corps.
- My Prediction: Las Vegas 23, New York Giants 20
- My Pick: Raiders -3
New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (+3.5)
It looks like Sam Darnold (concussion) is in real danger of missing this game, which puts P.J. Walker in line to make the start. While this isn’t the New England offense of year’s past, the Patriots are starting to make strides offensively and Bill Belichick should be able to come up with an effective defensive scheme for Walker. This is not a game that I have a strong feeling about, but forced to pick, I’m leaning on the Pats and the under.
- My Prediction: New England 23, Carolina 16
- My Pick: Patriots -3.5
Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
When we last saw the Ravens, they got blown out at home. Baltimore then had the bye week to steam over that embarrassing outing. John Harbaugh in 9-5 ATS when given an extra week to prepare. Meanwhile, the Vikings just lost their main pass rusher and have given up 27, 34, and 28 points on the road this season. I think the Ravens come back to life this week and have a fairly comfortable win at home.
- My Prediction: Baltimore 31, Minnesota 23
- My Pick: Ravens -6
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
The Bengals’ defense got caught flat last week, looking ahead to this game. Meanwhile, Cleveland is still just one game behind Cincinnati after dropping a 15-10 contest to Pittsburgh. The line is another one I don’t get. Essentially, Vegas is telling us Cleveland is the better team by only favoring the Benglas by 2.5 at home. Minus Kareem Hunt and Odell Beckham Jr. and with an injured quarterback, I don’t see the Browns being able to keep up with a Cincy team that should be plenty angry about last week’s embarrassment.
- My Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 20
- My Pick: Bengals -2.5
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5)
Like the Ravens, the Bills have had two weeks to think about a heartbreaking loss. But while the Bengals have a tough division rival to dispatch, Buffalo travels to Florida to face a feeble Jacksonville squad that is 1-6 overall and 1-3 at home against the spread. The Bills are 3-0 ATS when favored by a touchdown or more this season and it’s hard to see Jacksonville being able to keep pace here. Still, I wouldn’t make a big bet on a road team with such a big spread, but for our purposes: BillsMafia.
- My Prediction: Buffalo 34, Jacksonville 10
- My Pick: Bills -14.5
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (-10)
This game opened with the Cowboys favored by 7.5 but was quickly bet up nearly three full points. That’s not really a shocker as Dallas is significantly better on both sides of the ball, especially after Denver traded away Von Miller this week. We’re assuming that QB Dak Prescott will also be back under center, which favors the Cowboys even more. Still, I don’t have a great feeling about betting on Dallas as double-digit home favorites, so I’ll root for a backdoor cover for Denver.
- My Prediction: Dallas 30, Denver 21
- My Pick: Broncos +10
Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5)
After opening the season 4-1, the Chargers have dropped consecutive games in which they were outscored 61-30. The Eagles easily dispatched the NFL’s only winless franchise last week but have otherwise struggled against teams with a .500 or better record. Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS at home and 0-2 against the AFC so far this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 1-1 on the east coast so far and have had two weeks to prepare for this inconsistent Eagles team.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 27, Philadelphia 23
- My Pick: Chargers -1.5
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
What a difference a day can make. After news broke that Aaron Rodgers would miss this game, the line shot up in Kansas City’s favor. But with the way the Chiefs offense has been playing, it’s hard to get too excited. It’s also well-known that teams tend to play harder and rally around backup quarterbacks and the Packers are no fluke after knocking off the undefeated Cardinals on the road 10 days ago.
- My Prediction: Kansas City 26, Green Bay 23
- My Pick: Packers +7
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+1)
Coming off of their first loss, the Cardinals have extra time to prepare and take their vengeance on a San Franciso club that they’ve defeated in seven of their last 10 meetings. Arizona is also 5-2 ATS in their last seven matchups against the Niners, who are 0-3 against the spread at home so far in 2021.
UPDATE: It’s starting to look like the Cardinals will be without Deandre Hopkins and even Kyler Murray. Looks like a situation to avoid.
- My Prediction: San Francisco 24, Arizona 20
- My Pick: 49ers +1
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)
Life without Derrick Henry begins for the Titans, who were humming right along offensively. The Rams are also not slouches in that department, racking up 20-plus points in every game and averaging 29 points per game at home. Julio Jones could return for Tennessee, who will almost certainly be a more pass-heavy unit moving forward. LA was favored by 16.5 in back-to-back games and failed to cover either spread. I see a lot of scoring here, with the Titans doing an admirable job keeping pace.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 31, Tennessee 28
- My Pick: Titans +7.5
Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
The first team to reach 20 likely wins this game. The Bears are 1-3 ATS on the road and the Steelers have the same record at home. Considering how solid QB Justin Fields looked last week, Chicago fans are likely rooting for Matt Nagy to take another week off, but that won’t happen. There’s a good chance Fields struggles again but Pittsburgh’s offense has been disappointing all season, so the under looks enticing here.
- My Prediction: Pittsburgh 20, Chicago 17
- My Pick: Bears +6.5
Thursday Night Pick: Colts -10.5
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