NFL Pick ‘Em
I need to reevaluate the process for those 1 PM games. Last week was another brutal start but was somewhat salvaged in the afternoon. That seems to happen quite often. Overall, Week 10 was a middling 6-8, so nothing to cheer about.
For Week 11, only the Rams and Broncos are on bye, so we have a 15-game slate to dissect.
2021 ATS record season-to-date: 77-70-2
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7)
Being an underdog has been a tough spot for the Colts, who have dropped 11 of their last 13 games as dogs. The last time Indy went into Buffalo and won was in November of 2003. After dropping their season-opener against Pittsburgh, the Bills have won their last three home games by an average of 25.7 points.
- My Prediction: Buffalo 31, Indianapolis 14
- My Pick: Bills -7
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)
The 49ers have started to turns thing around after a four-game losing streak. San Francisco has won 2-of-3 both straight up and against the spread but overall, the Niners are 2-5 ATS dating back to Week 3. The Jaguars have covered three of their last four but are 1-3 all-time against San Francisco.
- My Prediction: San Francisco 23, Jacksonville 17
- My Pick: Jaguars +6.5
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (+6)
QB Lamar Jackson has thrown one and only one touchdown in every road game this season. As opponents have learned to take away deep balls, Baltimore’s offense has been somewhat muted. Both of these clubs have dropped four of their last five games against the spread but the under has hit on 6-of-8 overall for Chicago and 6-of-7 when the Ravens are on the road. If the Bears can use the blueprint Miami utilized last week, they could win this game, but I’ll be siding with the under 46.5.
- My Prediction: Baltimore 22, Chicago 20
- My Pick: Bears +6
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (-11)
The Browns have scored two or fewer touchdowns in four of their last five games and QB Baker Mayfield is all kinds of beat up. Hard to cover a double-digit spread when you’re having that much trouble scoring. Detroit’s offense hasn’t been much better, but the under has hit in the Lions’ last four away games.
- My Prediction: Cleveland 21, Detroit 16
- My Pick: Lions +11
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+3)
By favoring the Jets by three at home, Vegas is telling us these teams are virtually even. And that might actually be the case. Joe Flacco gets the start for New York, which could actually be an upgrade for the Jets, who rank 25th in passing yards per attempt. The Jets have dropped 4-of-5 against the spread, while Miami is 2-0-1 in their last three and have won 8-of-10 straight up again the Jets.
- My Prediction: Miami 24, New York Jets 20
- My Pick: Dolphins -3
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
Backing the Pack has been quite profitable this season, as Green Bay is 8-0-1 ATS since getting embarrassed in Week 1. The Packers have also covered 6-of-7 on the road dating back to last season and Aaron Rodgers has won his last two games in Minnesota. While the Vikings generally play well as underdogs, I think Rodgers and the Packers get the W.
- My Prediction: Green Bay 27, Minnesota 24
- My Pick: Packers -3
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-10.5)
Houston’s former team has won 5-of-7 from their AFC South rivals but these are two franchises going in vastly opposite directions. Winners of six straight overall and 5-of-6 ATS, the Titans have jumped out to a big division lead, while the Texans are in the midst of an 8-game losing streak. Houston is 1-4 against the spread on the road and the total has gone under in five of the Texans’ past seven games.
- My Prediction: Tennessee 21, Houston 13
- My Pick: Texans +10.5
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2)
This is a battle of strengths. The Eagles have one of the league’s top rushing attacks, while the Saints have submitted the fewest rushing yards (473) and fantasy points to opposing running backs. Philadelphia comes off of a surprisingly easy win in Denver while the Saints have dropped consecutive games by two points, which is what this line curiously is. I don’t have a great feel here but the Eagles are 0-4 at home, so I’m going to lean on the visitors to get back on track.
- My Prediction: New Orleans 26, Philadelphia 23
- My Pick: Saints +2
Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Washington has been pretty awful against the spread, posting a 2-7 overall record. After starting 3-0, the Panthers then dropped four straight versus the number before winning 2-of-3 to enter Week 11 5-5 ATS overall. The X-factor of this game is newly-signed Panthers’ QB Cam Newton, who will start his first game against his former longtime head coach. Carolina has dropped three consecutive home games and is 4-13 in their last 17 at Bank of America Park.
- My Prediction: Carolina 24, Washington 19
- My Pick: Panthers -3
Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders (+1)
Both teams are 5-4 overall and 4-5 versus the number. Both teams have also dropped two straight games and fallen from division leaders to on the fringes of playoff contention. This game is crucial for both squads but the Bengals have had two weeks to prepare. Cincinnati is also 6-1 ATS in their last seven against the Raiders, so that’s my lean.
- My Prediction: Cincinnati 23, Las Vegas 20
- My Pick: Bengals -1
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have been very good at home, but the Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Lumen Field. Arizona is also 5-0 against the spread on the road this season and this Seattle squad certainly doesn’t look as good as we’re used to seeing. Since Arizona is looking at a Week 12 bye, I think there’s a very good chance the club rests QB Kyler Murray once again, which could have a drastic change on the spread. For now, I still side with the visitors but would wait until closer to kickoff to see if the value improves.
- My Prediction: Arizona 24, Seattle 23
- My Pick: Cardinals -2.5
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
The opposite of Green Bay, Kansas City has been brutal against the spread, especially at home where they’re 1-10 in their last 11 at Arrowhead. Meanwhile, Dallas is 8-1 against the number in 2021, including a perfect 4-0 on the road. Kansas City is also 0-5 ATS at home. Should be a fun one.
- My Prediction: Dallas 34, Kansas City 28
- My Pick: Cowboys +2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)
Few teams travel as well as the Steelers, and perhaps no team has less of a home-field advantage than the Chargers, so is this really a “home” game for LA? Both of the teams have been disappointing overall, but the Steelers haven’t lost since Week 4, while Los Angeles has dropped 3-of-4.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 31, Pittsburgh 27
- My Pick: Steelers +5.5
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5)
Both teams emerge from their bye healthier, with the Giants hoping to have all of their wide receivers back for a game in which they’ll likely need all their weapons to have any hope. Speaking of New York, the G-Men are 5-0 in their last five games in Tampa and are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Buccaneers are 3-1 ATS at home this season but have dropped 3-of-4 against the number overall.
- My Prediction: Tampa Bay 31, New York 23
- My Pick: Giants +10.5
Thursday Night Pick: Falcons +7
