RB Forecasts

Christian McCaffrey 2022 Player Outlook: Injuries are the key

Fantasy managers know how great Christian McCaffrey can be. Despite being on a mediocre offense, McCaffrey has been a complete stud since entering the NFL. The past two seasons have been disappointing, though. McCaffrey has been limited to 10 games. This has led to a lot of anger from his fantasy managers. Those who had to select him at No. 1 overall to see him get hurt. Will this injury streak keep him from being drafted high in 2022? No. Because we know, when he is healthy, what he can be. In his entire last season in 2019, McCaffrey was on the field for 93% of the Carolina Panthers' offensive snaps. On those snaps, he totaled 2,392 yards and 19 touchdowns. Along with compiling 287 rush attempts, the 25-year-old also brought in 116 catches on 142 targets. He was the offense. In 2022, and with the quarterbacks the Panthers have, he will need to have another remarkable season for Carolina to have any chance to save the job of head coach Matt Rhule. Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, or Matt Corral. It will not matter who the quarterback is. They will all know who their best weapon is. They will not need to be told. This makes McCaffrey once again a top-three running back for fantasy teams. Despite the worries about more injuries and his recent track record, there is a real chance he will once again go No. 1 in fantasy drafts. At the same time, there are others in the running. Mainly Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor; many leagues will still draft McCaffrey. And it is hard to blame them. Every player has an injury risk. But few have the actual upside of Christian McCaffrey. If you are comfortable taking a chance on him, he is a good pick at number one. If not, Henry or Taylor might be your cup of tea. Either way, McCaffrey is set to have a monster season once again as the only weapon the quarterbacks in Carolina will be able to count on. Especially if the offensive line is not fixed and the receivers cannot get open in time because of it. If you pick third or fourth in your draft and McCaffrey falls to you, pounce on him. He will be worth the risk.

Austin Ekeler Fantasy Outlook: Consensus Top-3 Pick In 2022

This season, the Los Angeles Chargers are a niche pick for the Super Bowl. If they plan on finally getting over the hump and the Kansas City Chiefs, Austin Ekeler will have to be a significant reason. The Chargers have a loaded offense with an elite young quarterback in Justin Herbert and a good receivers group headed by Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. In 16 games in 2021, Ekeler logged 206 rushing attempts. The 26-year-old doesn't carry a heavy workload like Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook, but he is an all-around running back. Ekeler caught 70 passes on 94 targets for 647 yards and eight touchdowns while rushing for 911 yards and 12 touchdowns through the ground. The Chargers used a fourth-round draft pick in the 2022 NFL draft on running back Isaiah Spiller out of Texas A & A&M. While this may seem like a challenge for Ekeler, I do not see it this way. Ekeler has never been the full-time back in the offense. Whether it be Justin Jackson or Melvin Gordon III, there has always been a second back taking some touches from Ekeler. Spiller and his similar skill set to Ekeler is an insurance policy for a team hoping to make a late run this season. Not to mention the running backs, much like the quarterbacks, were severely pushed down this draft season, and the value of Spiller was too good to pass up. Williams will continue to be the downfield threat, and Allen will feast in the slot. But with the tight end position being a mystery, Ekeler will be the dump-off weapon for Herbert. Something he has excelled at in his career. Along with his 200-rush potential, this fact makes him an exciting running back for fantasy. A first-round lock in fantasy drafts, Austin Ekeler, can go as high as number two or three with no hesitation. Johnathan Taylor should be the consensus number one pick. But after Taylor, all bets are off. Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffery, and Alvin Kamara come with risk. In a pile of elite but worrying backs, Austin Ekeler could be the safest of the group.

Jonathan Taylor 2022 NFL Player Outlook: The Consensus No.1 Pick In Fantasy Drafts

This season will be running back Jonathan Taylor's third with the Indianapolis Colts and in the league. In his first season, there was a glimpse of promise. Last year that promise became a reality. In his rookie season, Taylor had 232 rushing attempts and 1,169 rushing yards while averaging five yards and gathering 11 touchdowns. On the receiving end, he had 39 targets with 36 receptions and 299 receiving yards. He also had one receiving touchdown. Last season Taylor increased his attempts by 100, his yards by 642, his yards per attempt by .5, and his rushing touchdowns by seven. Taylor finished the season as RB1 in standard fantasy football leagues. He rushed for 1,811 rushing yards, 5.5 average yards per attempt, four fumbles, 18 touchdowns, hauling in 40 receptions for 360 receiving yards, five drops, and two receiving touchdowns. Taylor finished the 2021 season RB1. He and his fantasy managers are looking for him to be the first running back to repeat as the overall number one in fantasy since Priest Holmes accomplished that feat in 2003. Let that sink in. It has been 18 years since an RB1 went -back-to-back. To return to RB1 prominence, you must have a few things, including opportunities. Taylor's rushing market share in Weeks 1-9 was 74%, which increased to 94% in Weeks 10-17. Taylor was one of the few running backs to touch the ball an average of 20 times a game. The least amount of rushing attempts in 2021, Week 3, 10 attempts against the Tennessee Titans. His most attempts were 32 in Weeks 11 and 13, against both the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans. Taylor isn't in a running back by committee situation. Nyheim Hines played 17 games in 2021 with 56 rushing attempts and a 31.3% snap share. His threat to Taylor's production is not in the running game but may exist in the passing game. There Taylor finished last season with 51 targets and 40 receptions for a 10.6% target share. Hines collected 57 targets and 40 receptions for an 11.4% target share. And yet, Taylor still finished as RB1 in standard fantasy leagues. Can he be played against any match-up? Last season against the Buffalo Bills, the Bills went into the game against Taylor, having given up the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. In the three games before Taylor, the Bills had only given up 42.9 combined points to running backs. The 23-year-old had 51.9 in half PPF fantasy points in the one game against the Bills. He finished the game with 32 rushing attempts, 185 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, one receiving touchdown, and 204 receiving yards. So, yes, you can play him against anyone. And once he gets the ball? Per statmuse.com, in 2021 Taylor averaged 5.5 yards after contact (behind only Rashaad Penny 6.3, who only played 10 games). He also had 488 yards before contact, the most in the league. Is he durable? Yes, and that goes back to his college games. In his three years in college, Taylor ran for over 2000 yards from scrimmage and had over 300 rushing attempts. In his two years in the NFL, he has not missed a game (knock on wood). The Colts will play the AFC South twice: The Titans were first against the run game (83.5 rushing yards per game allowed), Jaguars were 22nd (125.1 rushing yards per game allowed), and the Texans were 31st (142.2 rushing yards per game allowed). Taylor has another big season in store for him and is the consensus No. 1 overall pick in upcoming fantasy drafts.

Saquon Barkley 2022 Outlook: Bounce Back in Store in Contract Year with New Coaching Staff?

After a spectacular rookie season in which he finished as the overall RB1 in PPR formats, Saquon Barkley has had a bit of a rough go since 2019. He's battled multiple ankle injuries and tore his ACL in 2020 which has culminated in him missing more than 20 games in three seasons. But all signs this offseason point to Barkley being 100% and motivated to bounce back in a contract year. And new general manager Joe Schoen is doing everything he can to make sure that happens. The Giants brought in an offensive-minded head coach in Brian Daboll, signed OL Mark Glowinski in free agency, and took arguably the best offensive lineman in the 2022 NFL Draft in Alabama's Evan Neal. There are many reasons to believe Barkley will far surpass his 3.66 yards per carry average from a season ago. But with Saquon, it's not just the carries that will help him return great fantasy value. His ability as a pass-catcher has and will continue to give him one of the safer floors at the running back position (barring injury). He may not average 7.6 targets per game like he did his rookie season, but he could settle around five or six per game and should be on the field for most of the snaps. We heard rumblings from the first minicamp practice in April that Barkley was going to run more routes and catch more passes in Daboll's offense. Even if he's not hyper-efficient like some other running backs, we could see a Saquon put up Najee Harris-type numbers this season. Harris finished as the overall RB8 in PPR formats thanks in large part to his 74 receptions on 94 targets. There's risk involved, but the reward could be a mid-range RB1 season for Barkley in 2022.